The Toronto Blue Jays bats’ came alive last night as they were able to even their series with the San Francisco Giants.
The Blue Jays try to take the rubber match as they hand the ball to Kevin Gausman, while the Giants counter with former Jay, and former reliever, Jordan Hicks. My Blue Jays vs. Giants predictions like Toronto's ace to provide the edge early on.
See why Gausman and the Jays can jump out to the first-half lead in my MLB picks for Thursday, July 11.
Blue Jays vs Giants prediction
My best bet
Blue Jays five-inning moneyline (-112 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
The Toronto Blue Jays got a much-needed offensive outburst last night. George Springer stayed hot with two hits and three RBI, while Ernie Clement had three hits, including a home run as they defeated the San Francisco Giants 10-6.
But one of the Jays' problems this season has been building momentum. Can they use this win to parlay it into something more? Well, that’s going to come down to the performance of starting pitcher Kevin Gausman today.
It’s been a weird season for the 33-year-old right-hander. Gausman has spent much of his Jays tenure looking like one of the best starters in the American League. But an injury this spring that cost him most of camp was a precursor of what would come.
Gausman’s fastball velocity dipped and he started to get hit hard and his strikeout numbers dipped. As a two-pitch pitcher, losing steam on the fastball can expose weakness and allow offenses to lay off the more dominant offering. But he’s still shown flashes of the guy he once was. He has seven starts this season of at least six innings pitched with two earned runs or fewer allowed, including limiting the Seattle Mariners to two runs on six hits while striking out 10 over six innings in his last start.
Speaking of that, the strikeouts are starting to return. Gausman’s K-rate is up to 26.1% over his last six starts (more on that later).
This afternoon, Gausman will face a Giants lineup that, like the Jays, has struggled to make consistent contact, particularly against right-handed pitchers. San Francisco ranks 18th in batting average and 21st in OPS v. righties.
Meanwhile, the Giants counter Gausman with former Blue Jay Jordan Hicks. Hicks made a name for himself as a fireballing reliever for the Cardinals and Jays, but he signed with the Giants last offseason to transition to a starter.
I’m betting on the Blue Jays getting the good version of Gausman today, but that doesn’t mean I’m taking them to win the game. That Toronto bullpen is a dumpster fire and no lead is safe. So, instead, I’ll take the Jays on the five-inning moneyline.
Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
Kevin Gausman Over 6.5 strikeouts (+110 at PROLINE+)
Let’s stick with Gausman for our star player prop. We’ve seen both previous starters in this series rack up the Ks and I’m backing Gasuman to do the same. Yusei Kikuchi punched out an awesome 13 batters on Monday before Chris Bassitt struck out six last night.
Gausman’s strikeout prop is sitting at 6.5, a number he’s gone Over in each of his last two starts and three times in his last six, where his strikeout rate is up to 26.1%. Meanwhile, the Giants are a middle-of-the-pack team when it comes to strikeout rate vs. righties at 22%.
Gausman, like Bassitt before him, also has one of the longer leashes in baseball and has averaged 99.1 pitches over his last 15 starts. With the Giants’ inconsistencies against right-handers, that should mean plenty of opportunities for Gausman to sit opponents down.
Additionally, he’s had plenty of success when it comes to punch-outs vs. players in this Giants lineup, owning a 34.5% K-rate vs. current San Francisco batters.
On top of that, our Covers Prop Projections have Gasuman at 6.8 strikeouts in this matchup and the +110 price tag means there is some value on the Over today.
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Blue Jays vs Giants odds
Blue Jays vs Giants live odds
Blue Jays vs Giants opening odds
- Run line: Toronto +1.5 (-220) | San Francisco -1.5 (+180)
- Moneyline: Toronto -110 | San Francisco -110
- Over/Under: Over 8.0 (+100) | Under 8.0 (-120)
Blue Jays vs Giants spread and Over/Under analysis
- This matchup hit the board as a coin flip with both sides priced at -110 but the Giants saw the early money, moving the Blue Jays to a +120 underdog.
- I would like the Blue Jays at this new price if not for the fact their bullpen, which has the second-worst ERA in baseball, can't be trusted.
- The total hit the board at an even 8.0 and has quickly been bet down to 7.5.
- I would agree with the early money here. Since I'm betting on the good version of Kevin Gausman to show up today, that would mean very little scoring (at least early) from the Giants and those inconsistent Jays bats could double down on that. It must be noted, however, that the Over is 13-5 when Gausman pitches this season.
Blue Jays vs Giants trend
The Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 26 away games for +8.15 Units and a 21% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Giants
Blue Jays vs Giants game info
| Location: | Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA |
| Date: | Thursday, 7-11-2024 |
| First pitch: | 3:45 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, NBCSBA |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Kevin Gausman (6-8, 4.64 ERA) |
| Giants starting pitcher: | Jordan Hicks (4-5, 3.47 ERA) |
Blue Jays vs Giants latest injuries
Blue Jays vs Giants weather
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