The Houston Astros will look to snap a three-game losing streak as the Seattle Mariners come to town fresh off a sweep of the Texas Rangers.
The market likes the Mariners, but is Logan Gilbert a true 2.77 ERA pitcher that should be trusted as a slight dog versus one of the best teams in baseball?
Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Mariners vs. Astros.
Mariners vs Astros odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Houston opened as -160 home favorites but has seen a ton of steam head the Mariners' way as the line has moved to -140 for the home side. The total has also moved from 8 to 8.5.
Jose Urquidy and Gilbert met in Houston back on June 8 with the Mariners winning 6-3 as +120 road dogs with a closing total of 8.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Mariners vs Astros predictions
- Prediction: Astros ML (-135)
- Prediction: Astros TT Over 4.5 (+105)
- Best bet: Gilbert Under 17.5 total outs (+110)
Picks made on 7/28/2022 at 1:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Mariners vs Astros game info
• Location: Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX
• Date: Thursday, July 28, 2022
• First pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
• TV: Root Sports, AT&T Sportsnet
Mariners vs Astros betting preview
Starting pitchers
Logan Gilbert (10-4, 2.77 ERA): Gilbert saw the Astros in his last start where he went six innings and allowed just five hits and two runs while striking out eight and walking one. The second-year, former first-rounder is a flyball pitcher who gives up hard contact and sits in the Bottom-6% of the league in average exit velocity and Hard Hit percentage.
His 2.77 ERA might be misleading as he carries a 4.74 xERA and most projections have him as a pitcher with an ERA closer to 4.00 than 3.00. His 80.7% LOB percentage is one of the highest in the league but the Mariners are 14-6 SU in his 20 starts.
Jose Urquidy (9-4, 3.93 ERA): Urquidy exercised some demons in his last start vs. the Mariners, as he held them to just one run over six innings of four-hit ball. Prior to that start, Seattle had tagged the righty for 16 runs over 13 innings (three starts). Urquidy still owns a 7.58 ERA vs. Seattle, who as a team is slashing .361/.418/.628 against the Houston pitcher.
He has been a much better pitcher at home, though, with a 2.63 ERA over seven starts but that includes weak offenses such as Detroit, Texas, the Angles, and Oakland. Urquidy is not high a strikeout pitcher and is a flyball pitcher who has solid command but can get in trouble with the long ball (1.52 HR/9)
Weather
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Key injuries
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Betting trend to know
The Mariners are 18-45 SU in the last 63 meetings. Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Astros.
Mariners vs Astros picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
Just last week, the Astros wrapped up a three-game set in Seattle where they swept the Mariners, outscored them 16-8, and out-hit them in each game. However, following that series, the Astros dropped three straight to the lowly Athletics while the Mariners took all three games from the Rangers.
I’m not overreacting to the current form of either team and think the Astros have the starting pitching, offensive, and bullpen advantage today, and see this game as closer to a -160 price for the home side.
On June 6, these two teams met at Minute Maid Park with the same starting pitching matchup. Houston closed that game as a -140 favorite and although the Astros lost, Logan Gilbert needed 109 pitches to get 18 outs and Urquidy was not at his sharpest with four walks allowed.
Urquidy has struggled against the Mariners this season but got it back on track six days ago, holding this Seattle offense to one run on four hits. He might not be the best starter the Astros have but the books know his price. It’s Logan Gilbert who might be slightly overvalued here.
Gilbert comes in with a sparkling 2.77 ERA but for a young pitcher who gives up as many hard-hit and barreled balls as the right-hander, this is an unsustainable mark. His xERA sits at 4.12 and he’ll face plenty of left-handed bats in this Houston lineup.
The big sticks for the Astros have also had their way versus the young Seattle right-hander. Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman, and Kyle Tucker are a combined 21-for-56 (.375) vs. Gilbert.
With the market moving in favor of the visitors, I have no problem betting against a slightly overvalued pitcher in Gilbert. Houston is the better team here and has dominated the head-to-head this season. Houston is also one of the best home teams in baseball and at -140, is at least 10-15 points too long in this spot.
Prediction: Astros moneyline (-135 at Coolbet)
Over/Under analysis
The Astros just finished a series with the Athletics where the totals closed at 6.5, 7, and 8. Now they’ll see Gilbert again, and when he faced Urquidy in Houston last month, the total closed at 8. Both starters in that game gave up at least three earned runs and it looks like the books have adjusted the total accordingly today to 8.5.
There might not be much value on the full-game total unless it falls to 8. I’d be more inclined to hit the Houston team total Over 4.5 at plus money as the middle of this lineup hits Gilbert hard and there might be a slight discount here after the Astros struggled to plate runs in the Oakland series.
During the series in Seattle, Houston totaled 16 runs on just under 10 hits per game vs. the Mariners and topped this 4.5 total in two of the three games. Gilbert does allow a lot of hard contact, and the middle of this Houston lineup is dangerous with Alvarez absolutely dialed in with his timing back after missing some time due to injury.
To be honest, the total doesn’t interest us much and we think there is more value to be had in the player prop market despite thinking the Houston offense can get to Gilbert today after seeing him just last week.
Prediction: Houston team total Over 4.5 (+105 at bet365)
Best bet
Caesars is paying +110 for Under Gilbert’s 17.5 outs with THE BAT projecting the Seattle starter to go 16.74 innings with the plus-money odds implying over 18 outs. Getting through this Houston lineup is tough, especially with the top half hitting .375 against Gilbert.
Houston is one of the best BB% teams in baseball and can also drive up Gilbert’s pitch count. The Astros could also make it a brief appearance for the right-hander, who gives up a lot of flyballs and has yet to give up a home run to the Astros this season over 19 innings but owns a 0.93 HR/9 on the season.
Gilbert has a heavy fastball but because of it, is one of the hardest hot pitchers in baseball. That alone has me thinking his 2.77 ERA is headed north here in the second half. Against a solid Houston lineup that has seen plenty of him already this season, that unsustainable 80% LOB rate could also fall today.
Houston has success offensively vs. the Seattle starter and Gilbert can’t get 18 outs.
Pick: Logan Gilbert Under 17.5 total outs (+110)
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