The Tampa Bay Rays climbed back to .500 with a whipping of the Seattle Mariners on Tuesday. This afternoon, they look to finish a series sweep of Seattle at Tropicana Field.
With oddsmakers still giving the edge to Seattle, my Mariners vs Rays prediction is more focused on the total and backing some offensive punch.
Check out our free MLB picks, complete with a best bet and same-game parlay, below.
Mariners vs Rays prediction
My best bet
Over 7.5 (-108 at DraftKings)
My analysis
The Tampa Bay Rays should bottle up whatever has gotten into them over the past week because it’s the best version of them we’ve seen, which doesn’t look anything like a team in fourth in the AL East.
Ranked 18th in runs scored in 2024, Tampa has been running with the big boys the past seven days, ranking Top 5 in both batting average and on-base percentage and fourth in runs scored. They’ve outscored the Seattle Mariners 15-6 while picking up the first two wins of this set, including an 11-3 demolition Tuesday.
The pitching has been better too, with a 3.09 ERA (sixth) and opponent batting average of .181 (second) in the last seven games. That will be a tough act for starter Ryan Pepiot to follow, though, as he’s just 4-4 with a 4.61 ERA. He’s been tagged for three or more earned runs in five of his last seven outings, and taken yard 11 times in just over 66 innings of work.
Seattle has struggled since climbing to a season-best 13 games over .500 on June 18, crashing down to earth and losing six of seven. The offense has gone pop-gun soft, scoring three runs or less in five of those six L’s, and getting shut out twice.
That’s a level of ineptness its pitching hasn’t been able to bail them out of. Seattle’s staff is seventh in ERA at 3.59 while ranking first in WHIP and second in opponent average.
They could get a boost from George Kirby, who is 6-5 with a 3.47 ERA on the year. He’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in each of his last five starts, with the Mariners picking up wins in four of those outings.
However, the offense has been the theme in recent head-to-heads between these teams, with the Over going 4-0-1 in the last six — all won by the Rays.
With Tampa’s hot bats and shaky starter, there’s plenty of opportunity for fireworks at the Trop.
Mariners vs Rays same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 7.5
Richie Palacios 2+ total bases
Jorge Polanco Over 0.5 hits
It’s been a good series for Rays outfielder Richie Palacios. He picked up two hits in Tuesday’s win, scoring three times while driving in a run.
Palacios now has hits in four straight games, three of those of the multi-hit variety, and I’m jumping on the plus odds he’s been given to pull that off in the finale.
Kirby is more hittable to lefties, who are batting .247 against him, with eight of his 11 homers coming from that side.
We’ll finish with Seattle’s Jorge Polanco, who is coming off a 1-for-4 performance yesterday. Fresh off the IL, the veteran Polanco will look to get right against Pepiot. While this year has been fairly dismal, the switch-hitting Polanco has traditionally hit better against righties, with more pop from that side of the dish.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mariners vs Rays odds
Mariners vs Rays live odds
Mariners vs Rays opening odds
- Run line: Seattle -1.5 (+145) | Tampa Bay +1.5 (-170)
- Moneyline: Seattle -115 | Tampa Bay -105
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-105) | Under 7.5 (-115)
Mariners vs Rays spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Rays have won five straight games against the Mariners.
- Seattle has lost four of its last five — all as the moneyline favorite
- The Over is 7-2-1 in the last 10 head-to-heads.
- Tampa has cashed the Over six times in the last 10 games.
Mariners vs Rays trend
Seven of the Mariners' last eight road games against AL opponents have hit the Over. Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Rays
Mariners vs Rays game info
| Location: | Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL |
| Date: | Wednesday, 6-26-2024 |
| First pitch: | 12:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: |
RSNW, BSSUN
|
| Mariners starting pitcher: | George Kirby (6-5, 3.47 ERA) |
| Rays starting pitcher: | Ryan Pepiot (4-4, 4.61 ERA) |
Mariners vs Rays latest injuries
Mariners vs Rays weather
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