After finally shedding their epic 14-game losing streak, the Los Angeles Angels started their three-game set versus the New York Mets on the wrong foot with a 7-3 defeat last night.
Now the Halos will turn to the up-and-down Michael Lorenzen to attempt to avoid a second straight loss and the Angels' 15th in 16 games. The first-place Mets will counter with Carlos Carrasco and enter as -135 road favorites.
With the Dodgers on deck for the next series, can the Joe Maddon-less Halos avoid another losing skid or can this struggling offense turn things around with some bats coming back?
Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Mets vs. Angels on Saturday, June 11.
Mets vs Angels odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Angels opened as +115 home dogs which is the longest price they have been all season at Angel Stadium. They have since moved to +120 with a total that sits at 9.0 after opening at 8.5.
The Mets closed as -137 favorites yesterday with a starter who was coming off the IL in Tylor Megill. That total closed at 8.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Mets vs Angels predictions
Picks made on 6/11/2022 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Mets vs Angels game info
• Location: Angel Stadium, Anaheim, CA
• Date: Saturday, June 11, 2022
• First pitch: 10:07 p.m. ET
• TV: SNY, Bally Sports
Mets vs Angels betting preview
Starting pitchers
Carlos Carrasco (7-1, 3.52 ERA): The veteran right-hander is coming off a strong 10-punchout performance versus the Padres where he went a full seven innings. He’s currently tied for the league lead in wins and the Mets have won six of his last seven starts. He’ll face an Angels team that has seen very little of him and is hitting .220 over the last 14 days, with the league’s third-worst slugging percentage over that stretch.
Michael Lorenzen (5-3, 3.69 ERA): Michael Lorenzen has been one of many consistent Los Angeles starters this season with a 3.69 ERA. The right-hander has one of the league’s lowest K%, but the sinker/fastball pitcher gets weak contact and can get deep into games. He’s recorded at least 18 outs in six of his nine appearances this season and has a 2.76 ERA across five home starts this season.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Mets: Starling Marte OF (Questionable), Travis Jankowski OF (Out), James McCann C (Out), Trevor May RP (Out).
Angels: Mike Trout OF (Questionable), David Fletcher SS (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 6-0 in Lorenzen’s last six starts on grass. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Angels
Mets vs Angels picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
It didn’t take the Angels long to get back in the losing column after snapping their 14-game losing streak. The Mets used four relievers after Tyler Megill’s brief start yesterday but New York found a way to pull out the victory, sending the Halos to their 15th defeat in 16 games.
There are some reasons to like the home side tonight, however.
First off, is the price. The Angels are +120 home dogs which are the best odds they've had at Angel Stadium all season. They aren’t facing an elite pitcher either, as Mets starter Carlos Carrasco has struggled this season with just four of his 11 starts finishing with 18 or more outs recorded.
If Carrasco takes an early exit, he’ll give way to a Mets’ bullpen that has used its best middle relievers in two of the last three days. On the season, the New York bullpen sits 19th in WAR.
The Angels are also getting healthier on offense which is very welcoming as the Halos have scored just 48 runs over their last 16 games (3.00 runs per game). Anthony Rendon has returned to the lineup and although he went 0-for-3 in his return, he's a big bat in the middle of this order.
More importantly, outfielder Jo Adell was optioned to Triple-A, meaning the Angels are likely making room for Mike Trout who has been out for three games with a groin issue. Having a lineup with Shohei Ohtani, Rendon, and Trout at the top is a big advantage versus a pitcher that isn’t exactly overpowering.
The Angels will send Michael Lorenzen to the bump which might be a good thing for the home side, as the Mets dug into the Angels’ bullpen for four runs over 7 1-3 innings last night after Jhonathan Diaz recorded just five outs as the starter for Los Angeles.
Lorenzen averages six innings per start and isn’t a heavy K/9 pitcher. He can get deep if he keeps the ball in the park which isn’t usually an issue as he has been tagged for just four long balls over 53-plus innings.
We’re hoping the potential return of Mike Trout can spark the home side underdogs, who might have the advantage in starting pitching tonight. A home team at +120 is also a tough price to ignore, even for a team that has been stacking losses in June.
The Angels were a wagon early in the season and this losing stretch isn’t indicative of their current roster.
Prediction: Angels moneyline (+120 at PointsBet)
Over/Under analysis
Combined, these two teams have been profitable to the Over on the season with a total record of 58-52-10 O/U. We’ve seen the market react to this opening total of 8.5, as it's now up to 9.0 with 8.5 still available at some books.
Both lineups are getting healthier and the muscle is starting to return. We already mentioned Rendon’s return to the Angels’ lineup and Trout could very well find himself with a role on Saturday night, but the Mets are also filling in some important spots in their order.
Pete Alonso returned last night and looked healthy with a stolen base. He currently leads the NL in homers with 16 and his presence makes this a much more formidable order to work through as the Mets have the second-best runs per nine innings in baseball at 5.17.
— New York Mets (@Mets) June 11, 2022
Speedster Starling Marte might also draw back in tonight. The outfielder has been out since Tuesday but doesn’t look like he’s heading to the IL. He’s currently day-to-day but told reporters he is very close to returning.
With both lineups possibly back to near 100 percent, we can understand why the Over market is adjusting.
Both starting pitchers have a sub-4.00 ERA which might deter some quick-looking bettors from the Over here, but not us. Batters are hitting .286 versus Carrasco's fastball, which is his most-used pitch at 40%.
Lorenzen doesn’t miss many bats and in the games where he has gotten into trouble, he has been hit hard. He’s given up eight runs over his last 12 1-3 innings and has given up three or more earned runs in five of his nine starts.
If the starters don’t give it up, the bullpens certainly could. Both clubs needed heavier innings from their middle relievers in yesterday’s opener and the Mets and Angels currently sit 19th and 23rd, respectively, in WAR for relievers.
Finally, weather conditions are slightly favoring the Over as well. A lighter wind is blowing straight to center field, and the temperatures are forecasted in the mid-70s with humidity at roughly 60-65%. It isn’t the hottest game on the slate but the elements still give bettors a slight edge.
Prediction: Over 8.5 (-120 at BetMGM)
Best bet
We are getting ahead of the market here. If Trout, and to a lesser extent Marte, do suit up, the Over will gain some confidence.
Both Carrasco and Lorenzen are likely keeping the total down but as we’ve proven above, both of these hurlers come with faults. With both lineups getting back to full health, the advantage swings to the hitters in our opinion.
The Mets have been producing runs all season long and have the best run-production offense in the NL. Alonso is back and ready to lead the NL in bombs, while this is also a lineup that can string hits together as it leads all baseball with a .264 AVG. The Mets currently have three players who are hitting .300 or better with over 100 at-bats.
The Angels’ bats have failed them during their losing stretch but getting Anthony Rendon and possibly Trout back in the order is a massive deal. It isn’t the deepest of lineups and gets pretty weak at the bottom, but getting Trout-Ohtani-Rendon in your order is always lethal. Yesterday’s No. 6 hitter, Brandon Marsh, also launched two bombs last night.
With a little wind blowing straight out as well, we’re looking for some Saturday night fireworks on the West Coast as very few parks look as nice as Angel Stadium when balls are flying out of it.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-120 at BetMGM)
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