The New York Mets will look to bounce back from an Opening Day loss as they play the second game of their series against the Houston Astros tonight at Daikin Park.
Both teams struggled to generate offense on Thursday, and I’m expecting more of the same tonight as I take the Under in my Mets vs. Astros predictions.
Let’s dive into tonight’s matchup in my free MLB picks for Friday, March 28.
Mets vs Astros prediction
My Mets vs Astros best bet: Under 8 (-102 at FanDuel)
For the first three years of his career, it appeared that Tylor Megill wasn’t really panning out for the New York Mets. His performance was, at best, inconsistent, and he wasn’t finding success as either a starter or in limited bullpen action. While he looked like a capable fifth or sixth option in a good team’s rotation, there didn’t seem to be much upside.
But a funny thing happened down the stretch last year. After returning to the team in late August, Megill proceeded to go 2-0 with a 2.32 ERA and a .586 OPS against in six starts. That was enough for the Mets to feel confident having Megill in the rotation to start the season in 2025, even after an uninspiring performance in Spring Training.
The Houston Astros have even more reason to be confident in Hunter Brown. Now entering his third full season, the 26-year-old righty made a big leap in 2024. Brown went 11-9 with a 3.49 ERA and a 1.271 WHIP, both of which were clear improvements over his 2023 campaign.
Brown boasts an excellent fastball and an above-average curve, and with decent secondary stuff as well, he has more than enough to deal with most MLB competition. Outside of lingering issues with his control — Brown has walked just over three batters per nine innings throughout his career — there’s not much to complain about here, and the Astros even trusted him enough to get a postseason start, as Brown struck out nine batters while allowing just one run on two hits over 5 2/3 innings in a game against the Detroit Tigers.
Both teams are running out similar lineups to what they brought to the table on Thursday. The biggest difference will likely be on the Mets side, as they can throw in lefty bats like Brett Baty and Jesse Winker now that they’re not facing a southpaw. But those aren’t the types of names that are going to strike fear in the heart of the opposing pitcher, and they aren’t enough to change my overall perception of this game, either.
On Opening Day, these two teams combined for just four runs, and three of those runs came on productive outs. In other words, there wasn’t much sustained pressure from either side, and I don’t see a reason to expect anything different on Friday.
Obviously, the expectation is for more than four runs tonight. But I confidently included the Under in my picks for yesterday’s matchup, and I arguably should have made it my best bet. I’m rectifying that for tonight’s matchup, as the Under is my pick.
Mets vs Astros same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 8.5
Mets moneyline
Tylor Megill 4+ strikeouts
As well as taking the Under as my best bet, I’m also going to use it as part of my same-game parlay, buying an extra half-run to avoid any pushes. I’ll also give the Mets a second chance after picking them to win on Thursday and seeing their offense fail to spark.
I still think New York has the better lineup and in a competitive pitching matchup, I’m taking them to win with plus money.
I’m also going to take Megill to get to at least four strikeouts in this game.
In his late-season run of success, Megill struck out at least four batters in each of his last four starts, going to 6+ in three of those outings. What strikes me most is that he did so without going deep in those games, throwing only four to six innings in each appearance.
He should go around that far and hit the 4+ strikeout total again tonight.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mets vs Astros odds
Mets vs Astros live odds
Mets vs Astros opening odds
- Moneyline: New York +125 | Houston -136
- Run line: New York +1.5 | Houston -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Mets vs Astros trend
The Mets are 6-0 straight-up in Megill’s last six starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Astros.
How to watch Mets vs Astros and game info
| Location | Daikin Park, Houston, TX |
| Date | Friday, 3-28-2025 |
| First pitch | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | Apple TV+ |
| Mets starting pitcher | Tylor Megill (2024: 4-5, 4.04 ERA) |
| Astros starting pitcher | Hunter Brown (2024: 11-9, 3.49 ERA) |
Mets vs Astros latest injuries
Mets vs Astros weather
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