The New York Mets will visit the Atlanta Braves for a doubleheader this afternoon. Both teams need at least one win to make the playoffs.
I give Atlanta the initial edge in my Mets vs. Braves predictions with Spencer Schwellenbach in better form than New York hurler Tylor Megill.
At home, that pitching edge should lead the Braves to victory in the first contest. I’ll break it down in my free MLB picks for Monday, September 30
Mets vs Braves Game 1 prediction
My best bet
Braves moneyline (-154 at FanDuel)
My analysis
A combination of dangerous weather and poor planning has left us with two critical games, and the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves both know a split is enough for them to advance to the postseason at the expense of the Arizona Diamondbacks. That could create a snowball effect in Game 1, where a team falls behind and is less likely to expend resources when they know they should have the edge against an unmotivated opponent in Game 2.
That means the team with the starting pitching advantage might have a bigger edge than normal, provided they can get out to an early lead. In this case, that edge goes to the Braves.
Atlanta is starting rookie Spencer Schwellenbach in the early game. Schwellenbach has been solid, posting a 3.47 ERA in 116 2/3 innings of work. The 24-year-old has shown impressive control, allowing just 1.8 walks per nine innings with a 1.071 WHIP, while striking out just over a batter per inning.
Of particular concern for the Mets will be how well Schwellenbach has thrown against New York in his two starts. The rookie has gone a combined 14 innings, allowing just one run on five hits while striking out 15. Yes, this is a small sample size, but combined with knowing how well Schwellenbach has also thrown overall, it doesn’t paint a pretty picture for the Mets lineup.
New York is countering with Tylor Megill, who has been strong down the stretch for the Mets. In his last five starts, he has gone 2-0 with a 1.78 ERA, allowing just 26 baserunners in 25 innings. However, Megill struggled in one start against the Braves in July, allowing four runs in six innings of work.
Despite his strong finish, Megill has still finished the year with league-average numbers, and I’m not convinced he's suddenly improved enough to find sustained success against a quality opponent like Atlanta. If Megill gets into trouble, New York isn’t likely to deploy its strongest bullpen options behind him, knowing they can play against a softer Braves lineup in Game 2.
Mets vs Braves Game 1 same-game parlay (SGP)
Braves moneyline
Under 7.5
Tylor Megill Under 5.5 strikeouts
I’ll take the Under, even at a modest total of 7.5 runs. These teams have been playing low-scoring games later in the season, especially against each other, and the Braves have been an Under team all season long.
Finally, I’ll look for Megill to come in Under his strikeout total of 5.5. Megill didn’t find that much success against the Braves in his one meeting with Atlanta this year, striking out just four batters, and hasn’t shown any consistency in his strikeout numbers in general, totaling four strikeouts or less in three of his last six starts overall.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mets vs Braves Game 1 odds
Mets vs Braves live odds
Mets vs Braves opening odds
- Moneyline: New York +145 | Atlanta -170
- Run line: New York +1.5 (-130) | Atlanta -1.5 (+110)
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 (+100)| Under 9.5 (-120)
Mets vs Braves moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Mets have earned backers 10.5 units on the moneyline this year, while the Braves have underperformed, losing 17.5 units in 2024.
- New York has gone 7-7 when Megill has started this season. Atlanta has a 10-10 record in Schwellenbach’s starts in 2024.
- Mets games are playing to an average total of 9.04 runs, with the Braves contests average 8.08.
- The Under is 6-2 in the last eight meetings between Atlanta and New York.
Mets vs Braves Game 1 trend
The Braves are 3-0 in their last three games vs. the Mets, winning each game by at least four runs. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Braves.
Mets vs Braves game info
| Location: | Truist Park, Atlanta, GA |
| Date: | Monday, 9-30-2024 |
| First pitch: | 1:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
| Mets starting pitcher: | Tylor Megill (4-5, 3.98 ERA) |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Spencer Schwellenbach (8-7, 3.47 ERA) |
Mets vs Braves latest injuries
Mets vs Braves weather
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