The New York Mets continue their meetings with NL Central opponents and will start a three-game series with the Milwaukee Brewers tonight.
New York is coming off a sweep of the Pittsburgh Pirates as it continues to hold off the Atlanta Braves for first place in the division. The Brewers have fully succumbed to the St. Louis Cardinals for the NL Central divisional crown but remain alive in the Wild Card race. They are 7-3 in their last 10 games and are two games back from the final NL Wild Card spot.
Both teams need this game but who will get it? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Mets vs. Brewers.
Mets vs Brewers best odds
Mets vs Brewers picks and predictions
Sometimes the square play is the right play. That's the case tonight. We have two elite pitchers on the mound and we're taking the early Under.
Before anything, let's take a peek at my projections for this one. They have the pair of teams going Under the current total around 65% of the time. That's a strong edge and why it's making up my best bet.
I've highlighted Max Scherzer's barrel rate issues throughout the season and have done so again in the pitcher summary below. In short, his barrel rate is up to the worst of his career, which is why he's given up a fair share of home runs this season.
It's worth mentioning that the Brewers have a Top-5 barrel rate in baseball, and that means that they at least have a decent shot at Scherzer. However, I think there are better options than going against Mad Max in this spot. He's coming off a layoff, but it's not the type of layoff you'd think was long enough to develop rust. The Mets need a dominant start from him, and you'd have to think he'll raise his game — as he has so often in his career — to deliver one.
As for the other part of this matchup, Corbin Burnes is well-positioned to dominate.
The dilemma we've had throughout the season is figuring out these Mets hitters. I've discussed this angle in-depth in my MLB Power Rankings or regular game analysis. They don't hit the ball particularly hard nor do they hit a ton of home runs. The Mets succeed when they piece together a few successive hits, stressing the pitcher out, and causing him to give up the big one.
Burnes doesn't normally allow a bunch of consecutive hits. Hell, he doesn't give up many hits, period. Burnes has one of the highest whiff rates in baseball and doesn't give up many free passes with above average ball-to-strike ratio.
This is the right side today. I've never been one to be thrilled about backing such a low total over the first five, but I can't get away from this one. My projections love it, and that's enough, but my handicap agrees. We have two elite pitchers on the mound. One of them has a favorable matchup, and one has a history of responding in this position. Back this to go low early.
My best bet: First five innings Under 3.5 (-130 at FanDuel)
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Mets vs Brewers betting preview
Jump to:
•Side analysis •Over/Under analysis •Starting pitchers •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Moneyline analysis
It's pretty jarring to see Scherzer listed as an underdog but I think it's the right decision here. If there's a team suited for this matchup, it's the Brewers.
I don't put much stock on Scherzer returning from the short layoff with rust, and Scherzer has dealt with this repeatedly throughout his career. However, it's something in the mind of bettors and is at least a part of this game. How much remains to be determined.
What I believe is more pressing here is the unique challenges Brewers hitters possess. Scherzer's strength is strikeouts and getting batters to chase the ball out of the zone. There isn't a team in baseball that chases pitches out of the zone less frequently than the Brewers, nor is there a team who swings less overall.
In addition to that, the Brewers can barrel up the ball, and that's an issue for Scherzer. At least as much of a problem as you can make for him. Milwaukee has the fourth-best barrel rate in baseball. All of these items combined mean that the Brewers are, at least, on paper, having a pretty good matchup tonight.
I haven't bet on this game yet and will likely wait until closer to the first pitch. I'm expecting public money to see Mad Max as an underdog and to bet on him. Because of that, I think I can get a better number than the currently available one. My projections are looking for a price of +100 or better. I'll wait to see if I can't get that.
Over/Under analysis
This is primarily a carbon copy of my handicap for best bet.
These pitchers are elite, and one has a very good matchup while the other has historically responded in these spots. I'm not sure I'll double down on the whole game Under, but if you'd like to, the bullpens are rested, and my projections price it exactly where it is. A few trends between these two teams seem to be pointing to the Under as well:
The Under is 9-3 in their last 12 meetings and is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Milwaukee.
The Under is also 9-1 in the Brewers' last 10 games after allowing five runs in their previous game.
The Under is the definitive lean in this one tonight. I probably won't end up betting it because of my pre-flop position on the first five Under. However, I may jump on it live if there are a few runs early, presenting some extra value.
Mets vs Brewers game info
• Location: American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI
• Date: Monday, September 19, 2022
• First pitch: 7:40 p.m. ET
• TV: SportsNet New York, Bally Sports Wisconsin
Starting pitchers
Max Scherzer (9-4, 2.26 ERA): The last time we saw Scherzer, he went five innings and gave up one earned run in a win against the Nationals. He's an elite, Hall-of-Fame pitcher who strikes out many batters and has one distinct weakness: barrel rate. It remained at a career-high number throughout the entirety of the season. So if you're going to get to him, it's likely because you barrelled up the ball and hit it out of the park. He's given up a home run in two of his last three starts.
Corbin Burnes (10-7, 2.97 ERA): Burnes' exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and strikeout rate — along with several other metrics — rank in the Top 20% of baseball. Burnes relies heavily on two pitches in the cutter and curveball. The cutter has produced an eye-opening -17 run value. The curveball hasn't been far behind, producing a -7 RV. While the last two months have been a bit bumpy, he went seven innings against the Cardinals in his last start and gave up two earned runs.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings between these two teams in Milwaukee. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Brewers
