The Los Angeles Dodgers offense is in an excellent matchup spot on Tuesday.
Across the field, the New York Mets are on a serious heater at the moment. They’ve won five in a row, including the series opener in Los Angeles on Monday, and will be out for blood once more against one of the best pitchers in the National League.
Will Clayton Kershaw settle back into a groove? Will Tylor Megill stay hot? Let’s break down Mets vs. Dodgers in our MLB picks and predictions for Tuesday, April 18.
Mets vs Dodgers odds
Mets vs Dodgers predictions
It’s hard to deny that the Mets are hot, but just how dangerous are they? Well, prior to Monday I’d have cautioned those getting overly excited about wins over the A’s and Padres — two failing franchises (at least to this point in the season). After Monday, I’m slightly more of a believer in the Mets but still not sold.
The fact of the matter is that Dustin May was cruisin’ for a bruisin’ with the way he was able to wiggle his way around some poor numbers to start the season. The A’s put forth some unserious pitchers in a series sweep, and the Padres have an incredibly flawed rotation (which I am on the record as hating!). With that, this team still wasn’t scoring many runs, and that’s because it doesn’t have much power.
Two left-handed hitters packed a punch for New York on Monday, in the form of Brett Baty and Daniel Vogelbach, and that’s simply tough news considering a lefty stands on the hill for the Dodgers.
Clayton Kershaw has historically been very tough on lefties, allowing just a .196 batting average within the split for his career. And while his season is off to a so-so start, he‘s coming off of one of the best campaigns in a long while. His strikeout and walk numbers remain good, and he’s only been killed by barrels, allowing five in 18 innings.
Well, the Mets aren’t exactly a team that registers many barrels, doing their damage with contact. I think they’re in a tough spot, and I think right-hander Tylor Megill is due for some serious regression if his 4.58 xERA is any indication. Take the Dodgers to lead after the Kershaw innings.
My best bet: Dodgers first five innings -0.5 (-125 at DraftKings)
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Mets vs Dodgers moneyline analysis
I do think there’s quite a discrepancy here between the two starters, and with that, the Dodgers are severely underpriced at home. Are we really going to let three bad starts erase a season’s worth of good things we saw out of Kershaw last year?
I’m certainly not ready to do that, especially against a contact-happy offense which shouldn’t burn Kershaw with the longball. On the other side of this equation, Megill has only struck out 20% of the batters he’s faced and has an 8.9% barrel rate of his own. He’s also issued free passes at a very high 10.8% clip, which is disastrous when you’re getting ready to face L.A.
The Dodgers have walked more often than anyone in the league to this point and have a beastly .231 ISO. They’ve only been let down by the strikeout, so they are in a smash spot here against Megill.
Mets vs Dodgers Over/Under analysis
Ultimately, I am the slightest bit scared of Kershaw here, given the Mets have actually ranked in the top 10 of ISO against lefties and have a respectable 112 wRC+ within the split as well. I do think he’s the better pitcher here by a decent margin, but I’m not sure he comes away from this start without coughing up a few runs.
With that, I think I’d lean towards the Over here if I’m playing the total. I’ve just broken down why Megill is a terrible bet on Tuesday, and I think it’s entirely possible he coughs up five runs before the third inning is over. This number simply doesn’t reflect the danger he’s in.
Mets vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Tuesday, April 18, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TBS |
Mets vs Dodgers betting preview
Starting pitchers
Tylor Megill (3-0, 2.25 ERA): Megill is now 27 and getting a very healthy look here at the major-league level. He’s posted a 2.25 ERA to this point in the year but has some poor numbers beneath the surface like a 10.8% walk rate. He’s now walked seven in just 16 innings, though he’s allowed four runs on two homers.
Clayton Kershaw (2-1, 3.50 ERA): The lefty has faced the Diamondbacks twice and the Giants once to start the season, and aside from a tough road start in Arizona hasn’t looked all that bad. He hasn’t reached the levels he did in his first start of the season, where he struck out nine, but he did manage to cough up just two earned on five hits against the Giants last time out.
Latest injuries
Trend to know
The Over is 3-0-1 in Kershaw’s last four starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Dodgers
