Mets vs Giants Predictions, Picks, Odds: Senga Gets San Francisco Swinging

The San Francisco Giants and New York Mets get a series going tonight in California. 

The series is an extension of the California road trip for the Mets, as they just completed a series against the Dodgers, where they took two of three games off the Dodgers and enter today as winners of four of their last five. 

Unfortunately, on the other end of the spectrum, it's been rough sliding for the Giants. San Francisco has lost four of its previous five, including two straight to the lowly Detroit Tigers. However, it was able to snap an extensive losing streak before this game with a win over the Marlins. 

What's the Best Bet for this matchup? Find out in our MLB picks and predictions for New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants on Thursday, April 20. 

Mets vs Giants odds

Mets vs Giants predictions

This Giants lineup needs to be better offensively. 

It feels like it's gone under the radar, but San Francisco has the seventh-fewest runs per game scored in baseball at home this season. In addition, the ‘lytics aren't too kind to them either. The Giants are below average in xwOBA and barrel rate and average at everything else. The "eye test," or whatever you'd like to call it, hasn't impressed me either. However, the critical thing to focus on here is its strikeout rate: It's the worst in baseball at nearly 28%, so we're targeting the opposing pitcher, Kodai Senga, in the prop market.

Senga has made three starts this season for the Mets and has gone over this strikeout prop twice. The time he didn't, he was going up against the Miami Marlins for the second straight time in less than a week. Both opponents he faced have a profile similar to the Giants' swing metrics too. In addition, Miami ranks 25th in strikeout rate, and his other opponent — the Oakland Athletics — struck out seven times while ranking 17th in strikeout rate. 

I like Senga's matchup today for a few reasons. Facing a team that strikes out at the highest clip in baseball is, of course, a big one, but there are others. Senga will give up hits and runs; a 1.44 WHIP tells us that. However, taking a guy that has produced a K rate that sits in the Top 20 percentile of baseball against an offense like the Giants is worth the risk. 

Senga's success has been predicated on his fastball and forkball combo. His fastball has a tremendous amount of spin, making it a bit deceptive, and the forkball is simply a pitch that isn't seen much. There's little-to-no data on how the Giants' lineup will fare against the forkball, but I do know it hasn't been great against breaking balls this season. We also understand that the forkball pitch for Senga has been electric. It has produced a run value of -3, a batting average of .050, and has served as the put-away pitch on over 35% of the batters he's faced. I'm counting on its deception to lead us home here today.

I priced this prop at +100 and I'll happily take it at +120. Senga has accomplished this against both first-time opponents this season. Even though the Giants are better than both teams, their approach at the plate is not markedly different.

My best bet: Kodai Senga over 6.5 strikeouts (+120)

Mets vs Giants moneyline analysis

It's tough to back either side here, and I won't. 

The Mets are playing much better baseball than the Giants and are the deserved favorite, but they aren't worth backing at the current price. 

In addition, while I like supporting Senga in the strikeout market, he's still a high-variance pitcher. His anemic hard-hit and barrel rate indicate a guy that can strike out three players in a row, then return and give up back-to-back home runs. 

On the other end of the spectrum, Sean Manea has done little to inspire confidence. In many ways, it's a lot like looking in the mirror back at Senga. Both pitchers have great strikeout clips but struggle elsewhere. So, I'll pass on a side here, there are better betting options. 

Mets vs Giants Over/Under analysis

With two pitchers on the mound who are accustomed to giving up the hard-hit ball, I’m interested in the Over. However, some of the Giants’ offensive struggles hesitate me a bit, and because of that, I'd instead isolate a team total here. Therefore, I'll place a unit on the Over 4 team total of the Mets, available at -110 on bet365. 

We have yet to talk much about Sean Manaea, but his struggles with the sinker (a pitch that has produced a positive run value this season) are a concern against a Mets lineup that hits them well. In addition, Manaea's barrel rate also sits near baseball's absolute bottom. That will make the ears of big bats such as Pete Alonso and Mark Canha perk up.

Take the Over on the Mets team total. It's priced correctly according to my projections, but I'm a fan of fading Manaea in this spot. 

Mets vs Giants game info

Mets vs Giants betting preview

Starting pitchers

Kodai Senga (2-0, 3.38 ERA): 21 Ks in three starts has been impressive for Senga, but there are still things he could improve. He's doing the big things right, like reducing barrel rate and making batters miss. However, at some point, his xERA of 4.53 will probably serve up some negative regression — even if slight. Overall, Senga is a solid pitcher who is slightly overachieving. However, an electric fastball combined with a unique pitching arsenal means he will have a decent chance of going deep into games each night

Sean Manaea (0-0, 4.76 ERA): Manaea's ERA has ticked up slightly through three starts against his career ERA, and it's easy to see why. Manaea has been hit hard, and the metrics show that. His xERA 7.44 is one of the worst in the league and shows that things could have been worse. Manaea has been fortunate to avoid being credited with a loss yet. On his opening start of the season, he gave up three earned runs in less than two innings and was pulled. However, he did follow it up nicely against the Kansas City Royals when he got through six, giving up just one earned run. 

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Kodai Senga has gone Over his strikeout total in two of his first three starts this season. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Giants

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