The New York Mets evened up their series with the Philadelphia Phillies with a 2-0 win last night. The Mets are now 4-2 and the winner of this game in Citizens Bank Park will have an early hold of the top spot in the NL East.
Will New York earn back-to-back wins by taking care of business on Wednesday? Keep reading our MLB betting picks and predictions to find out.
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Mets vs Phillies odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The total in this game opened at 8.5 and it hasn’t moved by this writing. The only thing that has changed is that you have to pay a price to take the Over, so this could end up moving to 9 at some point.
Also, while the Mets opened at +111 in this game, the best you’ll find New York at is +107 now. And some books have the Mets at -105.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Mets vs Phillies predictions
Picks made on 4/13/2022 at 1:45 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Mets vs Phillies game info
• Location: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
• Date: Wednesday, April 13, 2022
• First pitch: 1:05 p.m. ET
• TV: SNY, NBC Sports Philadelphia
Mets vs Phillies betting preview
Starting pitchers
Max Scherzer (1-0, 4.50 ERA): Scherzer pitched six innings of three-run ball and struck out six in his Mets debut. He did that against his former team, the Washington Nationals, and now faces a Phillies team he is very familiar with. Last year, Scherzer was 3-0 with a 1.23 ERA in four starts against Philadelphia.
Aaron Nola (1-0, 6.00 ERA): Nola was once the ace of this Phillies rotation, but he had a down year in 2021 and his first start of 2022 certainly could have gone better. The 28-year-old gave up four earned runs over six innings in a win over the Oakland Athletics, and he gave up two homers in that game. He’ll need to do a better job of keeping the ball in the park.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Mets: Jake Reed P (Out), Joey Lucchesi P (Out), Jacob deGrom P (Out), Taijuan Walker P (Out).
Phillies: Corey Knebel P (Out), Mickey Moniak OF (Out), Brian Marconi P (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Phillies are 2-6 in their last eight games against NL East opponents. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Phillies.
Mets vs Phillies picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The fact that the Mets are underdogs in this game is rather shocking. Last season, Scherzer gave up only three earned runs over 22 innings of work against Philadelphia, which isn’t all that different from what he’s done to the Phillies throughout his career. The 37-year-old is 14-4 with a 2.50 ERA in 25 career starts against Philadelphia, and there’s no reason to believe that he isn’t capable of turning in another gem against this group — especially with Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper batting just a shade over .100 at this point in the year.
And you can't limit his dominance to the various iterations of the Phillies. Despite age and injuries, Scherzer remained one of the most feared hurlers on the planet when he took the hill in 2021. He went 15-4 in 30 starts split between the Nationals and Dodgers and finished third in NL Cy Young voting after authoring a 2.46 ERA and 0.86 WHIP across 179 1-3 innings.
It also should help those looking to back the Mets that Nola has been on the decline over the last few years. The righty was 17-6 with a 2.37 ERA back in 2018, but we haven’t seen that same dominant pitcher since. Nola’s 4.63 ERA last season was the second-highest of his entire career, and he looked extremely beatable in his first start of the year.
One potential reason for Nola's struggles has been an increased vulnerability to the home run ball. In that sparkling 2018 campaign, Nola allowed just 17 home runs in 212 1-3 innings (0.72 HR/9). The following year that rate ballooned to 1.20 HR/9 and went up further in 2021 to 1.30 HR/9.
The Athletics went yard against Nola twice in that first game, suggesting that he may not be over that worrisome trend. Against this Mets team, that is especially concerning. New York’s offense is going to come around sooner or later, and that will likely be when Pete Alonso gets going. And the first baseman happens to be 10-for-29 against Nola in his career, and three of those hits were home runs. Perhaps the Polar Bear will get a hold of one here and swing this game in New York’s favor.
Prediction: Mets moneyline (+107 at WynnBet)
Over/Under analysis
Even though Nola is the lesser of these two starters (not exactly a rarity opposite Scherzer), that doesn’t mean that this game has to be one in which the Mets go crazy and score six or seven runs. The righty is still capable of turning in a quality start or so, which would allow New York to win this game without this one going Over the number. After all, Nola gave up just five earned runs over 20 innings of work against this Mets offense last year. With that said, even a mistake or two in this one, shouldn’t doom Under bettors.
It's also worth noting that despite the vaunted home run numbers and higher ERA in 2021, Nola also posted a 3.37 FIP, suggesting that at least some of his struggles were the result of bad luck, which is further supported by the .308 BABIP against. And while he hasn't been quite as effective in the years since his outstanding 2018, he still posted a sub-4.00 ERA in both 2019 and 2020. So, you can't rely on him surrendering a ton of runs.
The Under also happens to be 13-5-2 in New York’s last 20 games as a road underdog, and it's 6-2 in the team’s last eight road games with a total between 7 and 8.5. That speaks to struggles that this Mets offense can go through, but New York also has had a lot of talent in its rotation over the years. That is no different with Scherzer now wearing blue and orange, and the Under is 5-0 in the last five games in which Scherzer has faced the Phillies.
Prediction: Under 8.5 (-105 at DraftKings)
Best bet
Scherzer needed only 80 pitches to record six strikeouts in his win over the Nationals in his Mets debut. New York will likely let the ace work a little deeper in this meeting with Philadelphia, and that’ll allow him to get his strikeout count up. Scherzer should be especially sharp in this outing, as he has always performed at a high level in this ballpark.
In his career, Scherzer is 8-1 with a 2.23 ERA in 12 starts at Citizens Bank Park, and he has averaged 10.6 strikeouts per nine innings in those appearances. Considering he should be able to give the Mets seven or so here, you have to like his chances of fanning at least even tonight. With an 11.84 K/9 a year ago, he might not even need that much time.
This also happens to be a day game, which is something else that favors Scherzer. Whereas Scherzer has a still excellent 3.22 ERA in night games in his career, he has a 3.06 ERA during afternoon contests. His strikeouts per nine innings is also up at 11.1 in the afternoon, which is a bit higher than his 10.5 in the evening.
Pick: Max Scherzer Over 6.5 strikeouts (-149 at Caesars)
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