The New York Mets and Boston Red Sox begin a three-game set at Fenway Park on Friday night. The Mets have been a complete disappointment this season and will try to turn things around, while the BoSox are five games above .500 but have a tough path to the postseason due to playing in the highly-competitive AL East.
MLB betting lines opened with Boston as -120 home favorites for this series opener with the Over/Under at 9.5. Here are my best free Mets vs. Red Sox MLB picks and predictions for July 21.
Mets vs Red Sox odds
Mets vs Red Sox predictions
The total of 9.5 looks a tad too high when you consider that both starters have been pitching well in recent weeks.
The Mets are sending Kodai Senga to the mound, and he was recently selected for the All-Star game while pitching extremely well in a pair of starts this month. In those two outings, Senga allowed just eight hits and four runs while fanning 21 batters across 14 innings against highly-productive Dodgers and Diamondbacks lineups.
The former Japanese League star is in the Top 25th percentile of all pitchers in barrel rate and expected slugging percentage. Although the Red Sox are fourth in the majors in batting average (.263) and fifth in scoring (5.01 runs per game), analytics suggest that they're due for regression.
They rank just 22nd in barrel rate and 19th in hard hit rate, which is actually worse than the Mets, who have been far less productive at the plate. New York is batting just .237 while ranking 18th in scoring with 4.44 runs per game.
The Mets will face Boston starter Kutter Crawford, who ranks in the Top 30th percentile in average exit velocity, expected batting average (.223), and expected ERA (3.56). The 27-year-old is beginning to settle in as a starter and is fresh off his best outing of the season, pitching a one-hitter and fanning nine batters in six innings versus the Cubs.
With both Senga and Crawford looking sharp lately, take the Under 5 on the first five innings total.
My best bet: First five innings Under 5 (-105 at bet365)
Mets vs Red Sox same-game parlay
First 5 innings Under 4.5
Alonso Under 0.5 runs
Senga Over 6.5 strikeouts
When it comes to the available totals on the same game parlay at bet365, you have to choose between the Under 4.5 at plus money or the Under 5.5 at -140. I feel confident enough in my best bet to take the Under 4.5 here.
Pete Alonso is the Mets' most dangerous hitter, but he has really struggled to get on base lately. He has gone just 2-for-30 at the plate over his last nine games while scoring just a single run during that span.
The Red Sox don't whiff very much, but the strikeouts prop for Senga still looks a tad too low. The right-hander ranks in the Top 15th percentile in strikeout rate and has racked up 29 punchouts in 19 innings over his last three starts.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Mets vs Red Sox moneyline and Over/Under analysis
This line hit the board with the Red Sox at -120 and the Over/Under at 9.5, and neither have seen much movement as of 10 a.m. ET. The Red Sox are 8-2 in their last 10 games and have won four of their last five contests when Crawford starts.
The Mets have gone just 15-24 since the start of June and have fallen to fourth place in the NL East with a 45-51 record. That is a massive disappointment for a team with the highest payroll in MLB history, although Senga has certainly lived up to his five-year, $75 million contract.
The Mets have gone just 3-7 in Senga's last 10 starts, although he has generally pitched well in those outings, leading to the Under going 1-8-1 during that span.
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Trend to know
The New York Mets have hit the first Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in six of their last eight games (+3.70 Units / 42% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Red Sox
Mets vs Red Sox game info
| Location: | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Friday, July 21, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SNY, NESN |
Starting pitchers
Kodai Senga (7-5, 3.20 ERA): The three-time NPB All-Star is showing he has what it takes to succeed in the big leagues. In just his first season of MLB play, Senga was selected for the All-Star game and has a 1.26 WHIP with an OBA of .203 in 17 starts. The 30-year-old is known for his ghost fork, which opposing batters have a slugging percentage of just .140 against.
Kutter Crawford (4-4, 3.74 ERA): The sophomore struggled in his first start of the season and was soon sent to the bullpen but he earned his way back into the rotation at the beginning of June and has been solid. He has pitched to a 3.93 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP in eight starts since the beginning of last month.
