The New York Mets handed it to the New York Yankees in the first game of this abbreviated Subway Series, and now the Yanks will try to return the favor when they send Carlos Rodon to the mound.
MLB odds have installed the Bronx Bombers as -150 favorites for Wednesday's matchup, and our MLB picks are siding with the oddsmakers. Join me as I break down the Mets vs. Yankees tilt and figure out why I'm rocking with the hosts.
Mets vs Yankees odds
Mets vs Yankees predictions
Everyone wants to talk about how poorly Carlos Rodon has pitched, but there’s nothing here to really be too concerned about. The left hander was arguably one of the five best pitchers in baseball a season ago and his stuff has been no different this year from last. He’s made three starts — one was his first of the season after a long layoff — and he threw plenty of strikes.
Unfortunately for him, his second outing was at Coors Field, followed by his third start in the hitter-friendly Angels Stadium against a hot offense.
His last outing against Los Angeles was somewhat troubling because of his six walks, but it’s clear right now that he’s just trying to get a feel for the baseball. Rodon threw a comical amount of strikes for four innings against the Cubs before attempting to adjust against L.A. The strikeouts are not there yet, but given the fact that little has changed with his fastball and slider, I think he should be fine.
I really don’t like Jose Quintana, and I truly believe the New York Yankees can give Rodon enough against the New York Mets pitcher despite the Bronx Bombers' offensive struggles.
Quintana’s strikeout rate fell last year and his expected ERA sat at 3.86. He’s been a bad pitcher for the majority of his career and there’s no saving him now. Give me the hosts to pull out the win in this Subway Series affair
My best bet: Yankees moneyline (-150 at DraftKings)
Mets vs Yankees same-game parlay
Yankees ML
Gleybar Torres Over 0.5 hits
Jeff McNeil Over 0.5 hits
You already know I want the Yankees as the first leg here. I can confidently say that Quintana is a very bad pitcher, and even a team with an offense as cold as the Yanks can make a dent in his line. Let’s also not forget the bersBronx Bom have a 106 wRC+ against lefties.
Now, we get to the fun parts of this parlay. The no-brainer component here for me is Gleybar Torres to record a hit. He’s on a 14-game hitting streak and during that time has batted .368 with a total of 21 hits in those contests.
I also like Jeff McNeil to pick up a hit considering he’s starting to find it at the dish. The king of contact now has nine hits in his last eight games — batting .281 over that period in time — and while he’s struggled a bit with lefties this year he’s a career .286 hitter in that split. I think he should be a safe option.
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Mets vs Yankees moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The idea of both these pitchers doing well enough to get us to the Under here is just a tough one to grasp. While I have much more faith in Rodon than I do in Quintana, the most likely outcome here is that one or both of these pitchers has a bad night.
The Yankees and Mets are both beginning to turn things around at the plate after a tough last month or so, and while we know the Mets are the hotter offense at the moment, we can take some solace in the fact that the Yanks own a 106 wRC+ against lefties.
The only time Quintana started this year the other team scored six runs. In Rodon’s last two starts, the opposing side scored seven. There is a trend developing here, and again while Rodon should be expected to be fine here it’s likely he coughs up a few runs.
We also need to consider that this game will be played at the hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium and there should be plenty of batted balls considering the poor strikeout numbers both pitchers own.
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Trend to know
The New York Yankees have hit the first five innings (F5) moneyline in 27 of their last 55 games at home (+4.15 Units / 5% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Yankees
Mets vs Yankees game info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Wednesday, July 26, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SNY, YES |
Starting pitchers
Jose Quintana (0-1, 3.60 ERA): The veteran has made just one start for the Mets after sitting all year due to injury. He allowed two earned over five innings with six hits allowed.
Carlos Rodon (0-3, 7:36 ERA): The left hander has now made three starts after sitting on the injured list for three months. He’s allowed 12 earned runs in 14 2/3 innings and he’s walked nine with just 11 strikeouts. His velocity remains unchanged from last year.
