With uncertainty around the severity of Napheesa Collier’s foot injury, the high-flying Minnesota Lynx’s season is in limbo — but the show must go on, starting with tonight’s matchup against the Washington Mystics.
Collier is listed as doubtful after limping off against the Connecticut Sun on Thursday. The Lynx were held to just 15 points in the fourth quarter without her, leading to their sixth loss of the year.
My Mystics vs Lynx predictions expect Kayla McBride to step up in Collier's absence. Read more in our WNBA picks for Saturday, July 6.
Mystics vs Lynx predictions
My best bet
Kayla McBride Over 16.5 points (-125 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The Minnesota Lynx’s rise to the top of the Western Conference standings this season has been sparked by a well-balanced roster — and they’ll need to lean on that depth here against a Washington Mystics team that’s more dangerous than their record suggests.
I’m looking for both Kayla McBride and Alanna Smith to embrace that challenge, with an uptick in shots in the likely absence of Napheesa Collier.
McBride is shooting almost 44% from 3-point range this year and 91% at the free-throw line. That’s a powerful combination, and this is a favorable matchup against a Washington defense that’s allowing opponents to shoot just over 45% from the field — third-worst in the league.
Though she’s been content to play second fiddle behind Collier, McBride is averaging 15.7 points per game and has finished with double-digit points in five straight games. It’s no reach to think the 32-year-old shooting guard can crank that production up a little tonight.
When she heats up or chooses to take over, McBride is among the deadliest shooters in the WNBA. She had 25 or more points three times in June, and the visitors will be hard-pressed to slow her down without key guard Brittany Sykes, who’s a long-term absentee with a sprained foot.
So sets the stage for McBride to lead the charge for Minnesota tonight, and I’m counting on an aggressive start from the UConn product.
Mystics vs Lynx same-game parlay (SGP)
Kayla McBride Over 16.5 points
Under 158
Mystics +9
While I like the points prop Over for a couple of Minnesota’s proven bucket-getters, I have my doubts about whether the hosts’ offense can score efficiently without Collier’s multi-faceted play.
Instead, I expect the Lynx to lean into their defense — they’re allowing the second-fewest points per game in this season while holding opponents under 40% from the field. That suggests a grittier battle here, with both teams struggling to get past the 75-point mark.
The Mystics are 3-3 in their last six contests and could make some strides in the second half of the season, even after the blowout loss to the Aces on Thursday. With Ariel Atkins shining in the lead guard role, I’m taking the points with the visitors to complete my SGP.
The trends support this pick too, with Washington posting an 8-2 mark against the spread in its past 10 games and pushing the Connecticut Sun to the limit in a three-point loss last week.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mystics vs Lynx odds
Mystics vs Lynx live odds
Get the latest Mystics vs Lynx WNBA odds for tonight.
Mystics vs Lynx opening odds
- Spread: Washington +8 (-110) | Minnesota -8 (-110)
- Moneyline: Washington +280 | Minnesota -360
- Over/Under: Over 157 (-110) | Under 157 (-110)
Mystics vs Lynx spread and Over/Under analysis
- This line has climbed in favor of Minnesota, and that’s likely sparked by a combination of Minnesota’s strong home form and skepticism about the Mystics on the road.
- The Lynx have won three of their four matchups against Washington, including an 83-77 preseason victory in May, but a 9-point line feels too high if Collier is unavailable.
- The Over is 7-3 in the Mystics’ last 10 games, but that’s only been a winning ticket in one of the past eight meetings between these teams.
- I prefer playing the Under, which has hit in Minnesota's last three contests.
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Mystics vs Lynx trend
The Lynx went 10-2 overall in June before dropping back-to-back games to start this month. Find more WNBA betting trends for Mystics vs. Lynx.
Mystics vs Lynx game info
| Location: | Target Center, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Saturday, 7-6-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Monumental SN, Bally North |
Mystics vs Lynx latest injuries
Mystics: Shakira Austin C (Out), Brittney Sykes G (Out), Karlie Samuelson G (Out).
Lynx: Napheesa Collier F (Questionable), Diamond Miller F (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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