The Washington Nationals will look to keep their hot streak going when they travel to Citi Field on Thursday night to take on the New York Mets.
Washington is 5-1 in its last six games and looking to make up ground on New York, which sits 4.5 games ahead in the NL East.
Can the visitors continue their push up the standings in the second half? We’ll discuss that and more in our Nationals vs. Mets MLB picks and predictions for Thursday, July 27.
Nationals vs Mets odds
Nationals vs Mets predictions
The Washington Nationals come into this series on the heels of a three-game sweep over the Giants as well as two wins in three meetings against the Rockies.
Washington, which ranks towards the bottom of the MLB leaderboard in runs per game this season (4.32), has seen its offense wake up over the past week — the club has averaged 6.00 runs over its last six games while scoring 5+ runs in each of those outings.
It’s been offense by committee for the Nationals during the early goings of the second half with seven players recording at least five RBI in the club’s 12 games since the All-Star break. Jeiemr Candelario leads the way with nine RBI over that span — five of which have come in his last three outings.
On the other side, the New York Mets have struggled of late with four losses in their last six games. New York has surrendered at least four runs in four of those outings and 6+ runs in three of those games.
The oddsmakers aren’t giving the Nationals a ton of respect for this one but they should be able to clear the Over on 3.5 runs pretty comfortably with the way they’ve been swinging the bats.
My best bet: Nationals team total Over 3.5 (-120 at DraftKings)
Nationals vs Mets same-game parlay
Nationals TT Over 3.5 (-130)
CJ Abrams to record a hit (-260)
Pete Alonso to record 2+ total bases (+110)
Along with the Nationals cashing the Over on 3.5 runs, we’ll look for CJ Abrams and Pete Alonso to stay hot for the Nationals and Mets, respectively.
CJ Abrams has been on fire at the plate early on in the second half with a team-leading 16 hits since the All-Star break, batting .320 over that span. The shortstop has hits in three straight games and 13 of his last 15 outings going back to early July.
Meanwhile, Alonso has been red hot at the plate over the last week with 19 total bases in just six games. The Mets slugger exploded two games ago with three hits, two homers, and nine total bases against the Yankees on July 25 and has recorded 2+ total bases in three of his last five appearances.
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Nationals vs Mets moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Mets opened as the big home favorite at -186 on the moneyline and saw that number jump as high as -222 by Thursday morning.
While New York is the better team on paper, Washington has been playing good baseball and will pay out nicely tonight at around +170, making them an appealing choice as the underdog.
The clubs have generally had close matchups over the last couple of seasons, with the Mets winning six of the last 10 meetings overall and the Nats taking four of seven so far this year.
The pitching matchup doesn’t sway me heavily in either direction as both Kodai Senga and Josiah Gray have had solid seasons. Senga’s 3.62 xERA is a bit better than Gray’s (4.53), but the Nationals starter was excellent in his last outing.
The total opened at 8.5 runs and could be found as high as 9.5 at some books. I like the Under with both teams featuring solid starters and below-average offenses. The Mets are scoring just 4.44 runs per game this season — 18th in the majors — while the Nats are averaging 4.32 runs (22nd).
While the Nationals have picked up the pace offensively over the past week, the Mets have slowed down a bit, scoring 4.00 runs over their last six outings and just 2.50 across their four losses.
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Trend to know
The Under is 28-18 in New York’s last 46 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Nationals vs. Mets
Nationals vs Mets game info
| Location: | Citi Field, Queens, NY |
| Date: | Thursday, July 27, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MASN, SNY |
Starting pitchers
Josiah Gray (7-8, 3.45 ERA): Gray was excellent in his last appearance on July 22, holding the Giants to just four hits and one earned run over seven innings of work. The right-hander was rocked for a total of 18 hits and seven earned runs across his first two outings of July but has held opponents to one earned run or less in three of his last five starts.
Kodai Senga (7-5, 3.27 ERA): Senga threw just 3 1/3 innings in his last start on July 21 against the Red Sox, giving up three hits and two earned runs before exiting due to a rain delay. The right-hander has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five straight appearances.
