The New York Mets earned a blowout win in the first game of this series, as they picked up a 13-5 victory over the Washington Nationals at Citi Field on Monday. The Mets will now be looking to win their fifth game in a row when the two clash on Tuesday.
Will Washington find a way to spoil New York’s party in this one? Continue reading our Nationals vs. Mets MLB picks and predictions for our favorite plays in this one.
Nationals vs Mets odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Mets are going off at as high as -200 in today’s meeting with the Nationals, despite only opening as -164 favorites in this one. The best price you’ll find on New York is now -185 in this one. As for the total, the number in this game opened at 9 and is now up at 9.5 on one sportsbook. However, most of them have it at 9 and are charging you to take the Over.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Nationals vs Mets predictions
Picks made on 5/31/2022 at 10:45 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Nationals vs Mets game info
• Location: Citi Field, Flushing, NY
• Date: Tuesday, May 31, 2022
• First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
• TV: MASN, SNY
Nationals vs Mets betting preview
Starting pitchers
Patrick Corbin (1-7, 6.30 ERA): It’s pretty shocking to see what has happened to Corbin, who signed for big money to pitch for the Nationals before the 2019 season. The lefty had a 3.25 ERA that year, but it has been a nightmare since. Now, Corbin is one of the most beatable pitchers in all of baseball, and he has given up at least five earned runs in five of his 10 starts this season.
Trevor Williams (0-3, 4.37 ERA): Williams is far from a reliable starter for New York, but he is probably more trustworthy than Corbin. Williams doesn’t work deep into games for the Mets, but he generally keeps his team in games for three or four innings. That’s all New York will ask him to do, and Williams did pitch 3 2-3 innings of shutout ball against the Nationals on May 11. It was a nice way for the righty to respond from a game in which he gave up two earned in just one inning against Washington on April 10.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Nationals: Mason Thompson P (Out), Sean Doolittle P (Out), Anibal Sanchez P (Out), Ehire Adrianza 3B (Out).
Mets: Brandon Nimmo OF (Questionable), Travis Jankowski OF (Out), Max Scherzer P (Out), Trevor May P (Out), Tylor Megill P (Out), James McCann C (Out), Jacob deGrom P (Out), Sean Reid-Foley P (Out), Jake Reed P (Out), Joey Lucchesi P (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Mets are 1-5 in their last six home games against left-handed starters. Find more MLB betting trends for Nationals vs. Mets
Nationals vs Mets picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
For as lousy as the Nationals have been this season, the team has the fourth-best batting average in baseball against right-handed pitching at .256. Washington is also 10th in the league in on-base percentage against righties, and the team is Top 15 in both slugging percentage and weighted runs created plus against them.
Considering this is a lineup that still has guys like Juan Soto and Josh Bell, that shouldn’t be too surprising. Bell is actually batting .315 with four homers and 17 RBIs against righties this year. And overall, it just wouldn’t be shocking if Washington shelled Williams in this game.
The real question in this one is whether or not Corbin will ultimately show up for the Nationals. However, the lefty has actually been pretty solid against the Mets this year, as he has given up only two earned runs over nine innings across two starts against New York this year. His most recent meeting with the Mets resulted in a five-inning shutout for the southpaw, who struck out five batters in that May 10th game.
Corbin has been absolutely miserable all year long, but the lefty is still a pretty talented pitcher. He also happens to be a New Yorker, so perhaps he’ll be inspired when he gets to Citi Field and faces this Mets offense.
Regardless, it’s just hard to lay off of Washington in this game, as the odds are just too good and the team isn’t bad against righties — the Nationals roster is also a lot better than its record suggests.
Prediction: Nationals moneyline (+170 at Caesars)
Over/Under analysis
There should be some runs scored in this game, but it’s hard to see it reaching the double-digit mark.
Washington is going to be hoping for a solid outing out of Corbin, who has had his struggles this year but also happens to have pitched pretty well against New York thus far.
The Mets have now gotten to see the lefty enough to make adjustments against them, but this could just be a lineup that Corbin isn’t afraid of. And it wouldn’t be shocking if he were to give the Nationals five or six good innings in this one.
Meanwhile, Williams likely won’t be given the leash to give up more than three or so runs over four innings. So, it’ll be hard for this one to go Over without the New York bullpen blowing up.
The Under is also 4-1 in the last five games between these two teams, and it’s also surprisingly 10-1 in Corbin’s last 11 starts against New York.
It should also be noted that the Under is 7-3 in Washington’s last 10 games against NL East opponents, and it’s 31-14-7 in the last 52 games the Mets have played in which their opponent scored five or more runs in their previous game.
Prediction: Under 9.5 (-120 at DraftKings)
Best bet
The Mets are 1-5 in their last six home games against left-handed starters, and the team’s numbers actually aren’t that great against southpaws this year.
New York is outside the Top 15 in on-base plus slugging when facing lefties in 2022, and the team is also just 20th in the league in batting average against them. The Mets also happen to just have a lineup that is rather heavy on lefty sluggers.
With all of that in mind, it’s just worth a shot taking the Nationals in this game. Corbin has been a disaster since signing his massive contract with Washington, but he has been solid against New York this season. If he can give his team a quality start in this one, the Nationals' offense should do enough against Williams to help the team pull out a surprising road win as a big plus-money underdog.
Pick: Nationals moneyline (+170 at Caesars)
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