Orioles vs Phillies Predictions, Picks, Odds: Hot Hitting Birds

It's game two of a three-game set for the Baltimore Orioles and the Philadelphia Phillies and the MLB odds has the birds as small road underdogs.

It's a big road trip for the Os this week, and they got things started with a 3-2 win last night. It extended a hot streak of three straight wins and victories for Baltimore in five of its previous six games. They continue to sit atop the AL East as they eye a series with the New York Yankees later this week.

With the Atlanta Braves struggling for wins, it would be a good time for someone in the NL East to string together a streak and apply pressure on its divisional lead. Philly has missed that opportunity going .500 in its last ten games and sits a half-game back of the final Wild Card spot in the National League.

Read on for my best bet and full MLB picks and predictions for Orioles vs. Phillies on Tuesday, July 25th.

Orioles vs Phillies odds

Orioles vs Phillies predictions

There may not be a team firing on more cylinders than the Baltimore Orioles at this very moment. 

The Os have been doubted as much as any baseball team this season, yet they continue to deliver. Tonight they are at a slight pitching disadvantage, but these are the exact type of games they've won this season. With that in mind, I can't bet on them and can't bet against them. I've turned to the prop market for my best bet. 

Taijuan Walker, who will take the mound for the Philadelphia Phillies tonight, has some solid overall historical success against Baltimore with a 4-1 record and a sub-three ERA. There are, however, a few individual players he's struggled against, and we're targeting him with one of those. Anthony Santander is that player, hitting .333 lifetime against Walker.

Santander could have been better lately. He's gone Under 1.5 bases in seven of his last ten games, including six straight. But that's why we like him tonight. Even with the slide as of late, he's over this number in nearly 50% of his last 30 games. I'm not a bettor who necessarily prescribes to the "he's due" line of thinking – most of that is subjective to positive or negative regression – however, if there ever was a player due, then it's Santander. 

Santander's historical success against Walker shouldn't be much of a surprise. He's had success against his preferred pitches this season. Walker throws the split-finger 35% of the time, and Santander has the second-best hard-hit rate of any Oriole against that pitch. Walker throws the sinker the second-most (around 25% of the time), and Santander has the third-highest hard-hit rate of any Oriole in the lineup against that pitch. Simply put, this is a good matchup, and whether Santander sees Walker two or three times, we like his chances to take advantage of things. 

Also, an advantage for Santander is the MLB weather conditions in Citizens Bank tonight. This is a flyball hitter, so he should enjoy the winds and temperature tonight in Philly should result in increased ball carry. In fact, according to BallParkPal.com, these same conditions have historically been good for a 13% increase in home runs and a 4% increase in extra-base hits. Both of these things should increase the favorability of a play like this. 

Back the Over Bases for Anthony Santander bases tonight. He has an intense matchup, and at +100, I'll take my chances on a terrific hitter being "due" to break out of a slump. 

My best bet: Anthony Santander over 1.5 bases (+100 at Bet365)

Orioles vs Phillies same-game parlay

Santander Over 1.5 total bases

Both teams score 4+ runs

Marsh 1+ RBI

+750 at bet365

We're rolling with our Santander prop in addition to two other plays for the appealing price of +750 for tonight's same-gamer. 

My projections have each team scoring five runs, so we'll happily take both to get to four for the second leg. Each pitcher is relatively pedestrian, and that's indicated strongly by their last few starts. Kyle Gibson, who takes the mound for Baltimore, has given up Over 3.5 runs in four of his last ten starts and Over 2.5 in eight of his ten. On the other side, Walker has been better, allowing just over 2.5 runs in four of his last ten starts but is facing a difficult matchup this evening. We'll talk more about the total, but this should hint at what direction we're looking.

I rounded things off with Brandon Marsh to record an RBI for the Phillies. You may not think Marsh has a substantial RBI threat, and for the most part, you'd be right. He's only recorded an RBI in 20% of his last ten games. However, the angle we're taking tonight is that this pitcher rarely creates swings and misses going against a player who has the highest BABip in the entire sport. Over 1.5 bases or to record a hit is a suitable suspect, but given where Marsh is placed in the lineup, we'll take the value on him bringing a run in. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Orioles vs Phillies moneyline and Over/Under analysis

I'm bullish on Baltimore at the moment. 

I grabbed friendly positions on them to make the playoffs and win the AL East, and thus, I'm personally rooting for them. They are built to contend now and for the future and could have the opportunity to make moves at the trade deadline if they'd like. As far as things go tonight, I don't have much of an angle on a side, but that preamble above is necessary to highlight my hesitance on betting against the Os. My projections give Baltimore a +105 price which is nearly directly in line with what oddsmakers have posted. That furthers my opinion of having no strong side on this one.

As far as the total, I'm expecting runs. I speak below about how each pitcher is essentially an average MLB pitcher. It's an oversimplification, but with that in mind, we should expect both teams to do their part to plate some runs. I talked extensively about Walker in my best bet and how I'm attacking him in the prop market. Gibson is not exempt from that either, though.

He is trending towards some negative regression to end the season. He has an expected batting average that's in the bottom 20% with actual production that has yet to fully catch up to that Philly should be able to do its part to help get this one Over. This pitcher sees only a few bats going against a team that does a good job putting balls into play, ranking 4th in baseball. Expect runs from them and both sides throughout tonight. 

Trend to know

The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Over in 31 of their last 50 away games. Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Phillies

Orioles vs Phillies game info

Starting pitchers

Kyle Gibson (9-6, 4.76 ERA): The best way to describe Gibson's season is that he's been a serviceable starting pitcher. The run support he's gotten when taking the mound falsely has inflated his win/loss record. The metrics aren't kind to Gibson. He creates an average amount of swings and misses, avoids barrels at a moderate clip, and does a decent job avoiding walks. He's a very average MLB pitcher in many ways, but metrics such as an expected batting average in the bottom 20% of baseball suggest he's on the bottom side of that.

Taijuan Walker (11-4, 4.11 ERA): There are strong similarities between Walker and his counterpart, who will take the mound. Both have a win/loss record that is slightly inflated, and both are relatively close to an average MLB pitcher. The main difference for Walker is that he's been somewhat unlucky, with an expected FIP and ERA lower than his actual ERA. With that in mind, he should improve slightly in the second half of this season. Walker comes into this start off a six-inning performance against the Milwaukee Brewers in which he allowed four earned runs. 

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