The volatile Baltimore Orioles are beginning to build some palpable form with four wins in their last six contests and will look to build off a win over the Tampa Bay Rays on Friday to lock up a series win.
Let's get right into Orioles vs. Rays predictions and MLB picks for Saturday, August 10.
Orioles vs Rays prediction
My best bet
Orioles -1.5 (+110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
While we've seen Corbin Burnes reach great heights and even win a Cy Young Award in Milwaukee, his first season as a member of the Baltimore Orioles has been nothing short of incredible.
Burnes has traded in a good deal of strikeouts for a five-point uptick in ground ball rate this year, once again pitching to an incredibly low hard-hit rate at 30.4%, which has led to a great .225 expected batting average. That number has only been improving over the last month, and it’s been largely due to an even greater spike in ground balls.
The Tampa Bay Rays rank just 25th in OPS to ground-ball arms and have hit an unreasonable .240 in the split, and they’re seven spots higher in OPS in the reverse split. This is a team that loves to swing the bat, and while that’s generally led to a bunch of balls in play, their strikeout rate has jumped to 27.3% over the last two weeks.
Although Drew Rasmussen promises to bring the heat to begin this one as the opener, he’ll likely be maxed out at two innings. The Orioles will be delighted to see Tyler Alexander working the bulk of this game in relief, as Baltimore ranks fourth in wRC+ to left-handed pitching and has also fared better against fly-ball types like Alexander.
The Orioles’ outlook here is a very strong one on both sides of the ball, and I’ll gladly lay the runs with a team that have covered in 58.6% of road games.
Orioles vs Rays same-game parlay (SGP)
Orioles -1.5
Corbin Burnes Under 6.5 strikeouts
Ryan Mountcastle 2+ total bases
Ryan Mountcastle enters this one with the second-most hits on the team against lefties and a cool .300 average. Against fly-ball pitchers, he’s racked up the third-most total bases in the lineup and is hitting .284 with a .487 slugging percentage.
While Tampa Bay is striking out at an obscene rate right now, Burnes’ punchout rate of 22.9% represents a career-low and marks the third straight season where we’ve seen that clip decline.
His strikeout rate has also declined as the year has gone on, dropping from roughly 24% or so in the first two months of the season, and there’s a clear stress on pitching to contact coming from the right-hander.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Orioles vs Rays odds
Orioles vs Rays live odds
Orioles vs Rays opening odds
- Run line: Baltimore -1.5 (-105) | Tampa Bay +1.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Baltimore -175 | Tampa Bay +145
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-105) | Under 7.5 (-115)
Orioles vs Rays spread and Over/Under analysis
- Baltimore opened at a whopping -175 on the moneyline and has steadily trickled up all day, eventually resting around -155.
- The total remains at the opening number of 7.5 runs, though we’ve seen considerable movement towards the Over this afternoon.
- DraftKings is reporting that while 90% of the bets are on the Orioles to win here, they’ve commanded a slimmer 86% of the handle.
- A firm 78% of the tickets and 81% of the money are on the Over to cash.
Orioles vs Rays trend
The Orioles have covered the run line in 58 of their last 108 games (+15.05 Units / 12% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Rays.
Orioles vs Rays game info
| Location: | Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL |
| Date: | Saturday, 8-10-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Orioles starting pitcher: | Corbin Burnes (11-4, 2.47 ERA) |
| Rays starting pitcher: | Drew Rasmussen (0-0, 0.00 ERA) |
Orioles vs Rays latest injuries
Orioles vs Rays weather
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