The Boston Red Sox have been bit by the injury bug yet are the MLB odds favorite to win Game 2 of their three-game American League East series with the Baltimore Orioles.
Can the visiting Orioles pull off the upset? Join me as I break this one down with free MLB picks and Orioles vs. Red Sox predictions on Wednesday, April 10.
Orioles vs Red Sox prediction
My best bet
Red Sox moneyline (-110 at DraftKings)
My analysis
Fenway Park is the last place a struggling southpaw with command issues wants to pitch, and Baltimore Orioles starter Cole Irvin will have a tough time tonight.
Irvin scattered seven hits, four earned runs, a pair of walks, and three strikeouts across five frames at Kansas City. While the peripherals didn’t look that bad, the Royals barreled up 5% of Irvin’s pitches for a 53% hard-hit rate, and that won’t get it done at Fenway Park.
The Boston Red Sox has only had a handful of at-bats this season against left-handed pitching, but the early results are encouraging. Tyler O’Neill, Masataka Yoshida, and Ceddane Rafaela have not only battered southpaws but also boast high walk rates, which poses an additional problem for Irvin and his command issues.
Red Sox starter Kutter Crawford hasn’t had any real trouble thus far. He’s spun his four-seamer and cutter combo for a dozen strikeouts over 10 2/3 stanzas. One barrel allowed across 170 pitches with a 26% hard-hit rate and 84.2 exit velocity is stuff that’s hard to beat. He serves up a high groundball rate to righties and the fly balls allowed to lefties typically become long outs in right-center field (62.5%).
Tuesday’s 7-1 loss to the Orioles wasn’t hard to predict, as the Red Sox returned from a 10-game road trip and being “home” for the first time this season to new surroundings and the fanfare from Boston’s season-opening celebrations can cause all sorts of distractions. Plus, Baltimore starter Corbin Burnes was just too good for them.
Boston won’t have that problem tonight. Irvin isn’t going to blow anyone away, and the Sox hit lefties well (32.3% hard-hit rate). Irvin’s mediocre fastball and sometimes-hanging bender meeting Boston’s 33% pull rate against lefties with the “Green Monster” looming large is a bad combo. Crawford has been good thus far and his xERA of 1.61 is encouraging enough to back tonight.
Orioles vs Red Sox same-game parlay
Red Sox moneyline
Cole Irvin 5+ hits allowed
Cole Irvin 2+ walks allowed
I’ll pair my best bet with the main reason I’m making it: Cole Irvin.
Irvin allowed seven hits at Kansas City and faces a Boston offense with a .353 BABIP and 24 hits through 111 plate appearances. The Sox are also patient; though the sample size is small, they boast 10 walks. Irvin’s low chase rate, paired with his career 2.10 walks per nine, makes this a good bet.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Orioles vs Red Sox odds
Orioles vs Red Sox live odds
Orioles vs Red Sox opening odds
- Run line: Baltimore +1.5 | Boston -1.5
- Moneyline: Baltimore -110 | Boston -110
- Over/Under: Over 9 | Under 9
Orioles vs Red Sox spread and Over/Under analysis
- Boston bettors have won $69 on Red Sox moneyline wagers. Baltimore backers are ahead $12 betting the Orioles straight-up.
- The Over is 2-0 in umpire Bruce Dreckman’s two games behind the dish this year.
- The Red Sox are 4-1 in their last five games following a loss.
Orioles vs Red Sox trend
The Red Sox are 5-0 in their last five games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Red Sox
Orioles vs Red Sox game info
| Location: | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Wednesday, 4-10-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MASN, NESN |
| Orioles starting pitcher: | Cole Irvin (0-1, 7.20 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | Nick Pivetta (1-1, 0.82 ERA) |
Orioles vs Red Sox latest injuries
Orioles vs Red Sox weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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