The Houston Astros will continue their homestand with a weekend series against the San Diego Padres, as the second-place AL East side hosts the NL East-leading Padres. This series will be Houston and San Diego's first meeting of the season, after San Diego crushed Houston in their lone series a year ago.
Which of these two teams will get a win in the first game of the series? Find out in our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Padres vs. Astros on May 28.
Padres vs Astros game info
• Location: Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX
• Date: Friday, May 28, 2021
• Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
• TV: BSSD, SportsNet SW
Padres vs Astros odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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Padres vs Astros betting preview
Starting pitchers
Dinelson Lamet (1-0, 1.64 ERA): The Padres have been cautious with Lamet, as he recovers from an elbow injury that ended his 2020 season. After just one start, in late April, San Diego put him back on the shelf due to forearm tightness. Lamet's unlikely to go deep into this one, but he'll return to the rotation regardless.
Framber Valdez (Season debut): Valdez will get the nod in his return from a finger injury suffered in spring training, replacing the injured Lance McCullers in the rotation. Valdez was solid in 2020, with a 3.57 ERA and 76 strikeouts across 70 2-3 innings but like Lamet, will be unlikely to hit a high pitch count.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Padres: Manny Machado 3B (Questionable), Trent Grisham LF (Out), Drew Pomeranz RP (Out), Jorge Ona RF (Out).
Astros: Michael Brantley LF (Questionable), Kent Emanuel RP (Questionable), Josh James RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 8-0 in the Padres' last eight road games vs. a team with a winning record. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Astros.
Moneyline pick
The Astros, one of, if not the best hitting team in baseball, will meet their match in the series with the Padres. For as threatening as Houston has been at the plate in 2021, the same goes for San Diego's ability to limit hitters. The Padres are atop the league in opposing batting average and second in on-base percentage, while allowing the fewest runs per nine innings (3.06) and punching out batters most often, at 10.59 strikeouts per game.
San Diego has been hot lately, with wins in 11 of its last 13 games, despite splitting a four-game series with the Brewers ahead of this one. That stretch of play, during which ascending superstar Fernando Tatis Jr. returned from injury, has seen the Padres average 6.4 runs per game, nearly two runs up on their season-long average. With Tatis back in the lineup, there should be real hope of San Diego's hitting catching up to its stellar pitching.
The Astros, meanwhile, only just stopped a rough stretch ahead of their home series vs. the Padres. Houston dropped four straight — including an 0-3 series against the lowly Rangers — before it knocked off the Dodgers in the second of a two-game set, thanks to a great start from Luis Garcia.
Both teams will be in vulnerable positions in this one, going to starting pitchers coming off long injury layoffs. However, with the Astros' Valdez making his first start of the year against a Padres lineup cruising lately, and Lamet able to turn the ball over to the better bullpen, we like San Diego to begin the series with a win.
PREDICTION: Padres (-110)
Over/Under pick
Houston boasts one of the league's best lineups through two months of the season, averaging the second-most runs per nine innings, at 5.27, with the highest batting average (.268) and second-highest on-base percentage (.760) in MLB. Crucially, the Astros' lineup goes down swinging the least often, averaging just 6.94 strikeouts per game. Houston has been one of the best Over bets in baseball, with a 30-17-2 O/U record.
While San Diego has gotten by on the strength of its pitching and fielding in 2021, it has been steady at the dish, averaging the 14th most runs per game at 4.66, with the 12th best batting average (.239) and the 15th ranked on-base percentage (.706). While they aren't crushing the ball out of the park with any sort of consistency, they do a great job of avoiding strikeouts, with their lineup getting punched out at the second-lowest rate.
With neither Lamet nor Valdez supposed to go very deep into this ballgame, both teams' bullpens will play a major role in the game's total. The Padres, fittingly, boast one of the best bullpens in the MLB, allowing just a 2.42 ERA as a unit (lowest in the majors) and a WHIP of 1.07, second to just the Yankees' mark of 1.06. Houston's bullpen has been more up-and-down this year, but it has allowed just the 10th most hits in the majors, actually ranking above the Padres' relief staff.
With two uninspiring starters leading their teams into this one, and two lineups capable of putting up strong days at the plate, their bullpens don't give us enough confidence to go Under. Bang the Over like a trashcan in this one.
PREDICTION: Over 8.5 (-105)
Padres vs Astros betting card
- Padres (-110)
- Over 8.5 (-105)
Picks made on 5/27/2021 at 7:45 p.m. ET
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