The Toronto Blue Jays continue to play Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. If they’re not playing the American League East, they look like a great baseball team.
And luckily, they haven’t played a division opponent in a while and have won eight of their last nine heading into tonight’s series opener against the visiting San Diego Padres.
The Padres have been one of the most disappointing teams in the MLB. They sit in fourth place in the National League West had have stumbled coming out of the All-Star break.
But can Toronto take advantage? The Blue Jays will be MLB odds underdogs as Alek Manoah makes his second start since returning from the minor leagues, while San Diego counters with a red-hot Joe Musgrove.
I break down the and bring you my best bet, plus a same-game parlay in MLB picks and predictions, Padres vs. Blue Jays.
Padres vs Blue Jays odds
Padres vs Blue Jays predictions
The Blue Jays may have some very disappointing results when they go against the American League East, but at least they aren’t the Padres.
San Diego would likely be called the most disappointing team in baseball if the New York Mets didn’t exist. Baseball’s third-highest payroll is good for just a 44-50 record and fourth place in the National League West, which is stunning considering the names on this roster.
They also got off to a rough start coming out of the All-Star break, dropping three of four to the Philadelphia Phillies. Now, a matchup with Toronto won’t be easy, but handing the ball to Joe Musgrove is a good start.
Musgrove got off to a slow start thanks to an injury that held him out of Spring Training, but he has really settled in now and is looking like the guy who was an All-Star last season. The right-hander is pitching to a 1.79 ERA and is limiting opponents to a .228 batting average over his last nine starts.
Musgrove uses a good mix of pitches and speeds to mess with a hitter’s timing. He ranks in the 83rd percentile or better in opponent expected slugging percentage, hard hit percentage, and average exit velocity.
While the Blue Jays have strong numbers vs. right-handed pitchers, they still have their issues with getting that clutch hit. Toronto ranks 27th in OPS with runners in scoring position this season.
The other potential issue for the Blue Jays is tonight’s starter, Alek Manoah. The 25-year-old was named the Opening Day starter but his first half was nothing short of an unmitigated disaster. It was so bad that the Jays had no choice but to send him down to the Florida Complex League.
Now, his return just before the All-Star break showed some promise, allowing just one run on five hits while striking out eight, albeit against the Detroit Tigers.
Overall, he is pitching to a 6.26 expected ERA while surrendering a .275 expected batting average, and a .476 expected slugging percentage. And despite the Padres' inconsistencies at the dish, the talent is clearly there to pop off at any time.
Until Manoah proves he can be consistently effective at the Major League level, it’s hard to have faith in backing him in a spot like this. The Padres have a massive edge in starters with Musgrove on the mound and I am betting them to have a lead through five innings.
My best bet: Padres -0.5 five-inning runline (-105 at SPORTS INTERACTION)
Padres vs Blue Jays same-game parlay
Padres -0.5 F5 runline
Musgrove u5.5 Ks
Kim o1.5 TBs
As always, today’s same-game parlay starts with our best bet, which, of course, is the Padres having the lead through five innings.
While I’m betting Musgrove is effective tonight, I don’t necessarily think it’s with the strikeout. Musgrove’s strikeout numbers are slightly above average ranking in the 57th percentile in K-rate. The Blue Jays are also a tough team to strike out, owning the fifth-lowest K-rate vs right-handed pitching this season. So, let’s add Musgrove Under 5.5 strikeouts.
One thing I noticed in Manoah’s first start back was that he was still finding too much of the plate. The Tigers were just unable to take advantage. A guy like Ha-Seong Kim can. The Padres shortstop is hitting .330 with a .957 OPS over the last month. So, let’s finish this SGP off with Kim to go Over 1.5 total bases for a nice +850 payday.
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Padres vs Blue Jays moneyline and Over/Under analysis
This interleague matchup opened at basically a pick’em with both sides on the board in the -110 range. This tells me oddsmakers are still overpricing Manoah as if he's still the guy who finished third in AL Cy Young voting from a season ago.
But savvy bettors jumped on that opening line and the Padres are now in the -130 range. But as I broke down above, I still think there is some value in San Diego at that price due to their big edge in starting pitching. Manoah’s performance has been shaky at best, and one solid start against the Tigers isn’t enough to tell me he’s back.
Musgrove is also one of the most reliable starters around and has completed at least six innings in nine consecutive starts. This means he gives the Padres a chance to hand the ball to their best relievers, including Josh Hader. Clearly, I prefer San Diego in the first five innings but would lean toward them on the moneyline as well.
When it comes to the total, it hit the board at 9 and has been bumped up to 9.5. That said, I think that number is high enough to consider the Under. While the Padres have a bunch of star power they have not performed that way. San Diego has the second-lowest batting average and ranks 18th in OPS vs. right-handed pitching. And even if Manoah gets in trouble, he is supported by a very strong Blue Jays bullpen.
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Trend to know
The Padres have hit the first five innings moneyline in 23 of their last 40 games for +8.85 units. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Blue Jays
Padres vs Blue Jays game info
| Location: | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Tuesday, July 18, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, SDPA |
Starting pitchers
Joe Musgrove (8-2, 3.29 ERA): Musgrove got his groove back. The right-hander has allowed a total of 11 earned runs over his last nine starts, limiting opponents to two earned runs or fewer in eight of those nine starts.
Alek Manoah (2-7, 5.91 ERA): Manoah's now trying to get his groove back as well. His return to the MLB was a success. It was just the third time this season that he completed six innings. Can he keep it going is the question?
