The San Diego Padres and Atlanta Braves will close out their series with a doubleheader and the opener features an interesting pitching matchup as Chris Paddack toes the rubber against rookie Kyle Muller.
The Braves took home a hard-fought 2-1 victory in Tuesday’s night game as underdogs and they will be plus money once again in this one. So, is the betting value with the home team or is laying the juice with the Padres the way to go?
Find out in our MLB free picks and predictions for Game 1 of this doubleheader between the Padres and Braves on Wednesday, July 21.
Padres vs Braves game info
• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
• Date: Wednesday, July 21, 2021
• Time: 12:20 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports San Diego, Bally Sports South
Padres vs Braves odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare MLB odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
MLB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonThe line at DraftKings as of 8:15 a.m. ET on Wednesday is San Diego -160/Atlanta +140, with the total for this seven-inning game at 7.5. Check back later for a full report from Patrick!
Check out the full line movement for this gamePadres vs Braves betting preview
Starting pitchers
Chris Paddack (5-6, 5.49 ERA): Inconsistencies continue to plague Paddack this season. The right-hander was staked to a huge lead in his last start but still allowed four runs on five hits while striking out just two in five innings. Opponents are now hitting .276 off him for the season.
Kyler Muller (1-2, 3.45): The Braves hope they have found another great young starter in Muller. The rookie southpaw is the Braves' top pitching prospect and his big league career has gotten off to a solid start, allowing four earned runs over his first three MLB starts.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Padres: Austin Nola C (Out), Nick Ramirez RP (Out), Taylor Williams RP (Out), Javy Guerra RP (Out), Matt Strahm RP (Out).
Braves: Ronald Acuna Jr. RF (Out), Marcell Ozuna LF (Out), Grant Dayton RP (Out), Travis d'Arnuad C (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Padres are 6-14 in their last 20 games on the road. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Braves.
Moneyline pick
The Braves got a much-needed win on Tuesday night after dropping three of their previous four contests, and now sit just 3.5 games behind the Mets for first place in the National League East. They’ll like their chances to inch even closer Wednesday afternoon.
Muller looks like another big-league arm the Braves have developed. The lefty is pitching to a 2.45 ERA, is limiting opponents to a .106 batting average, and has struck out 19 batters in 14 innings over his first three career outings.
Now he faces a Padres team that can seemingly only score when they play the Nationals these days. But on top of that, they haven’t been as potent against left-handed pitchers, ranking 16th in average and 17th in OPS.
Another reason to like the Braves as underdogs in this one is Paddack. The big right-hander continues to be an infuriating pitcher to back. While he flashes top of the rotation potential at times, he just can’t seem to put it all together.
With the Braves ranking eighth in OPS against right-handers they are giving great value as underdogs in this one.
PREDICTION: Braves (+140)
Over/Under pick
A total of 7.5 might seem a little high for a seven-inning game but that’s how bad Paddack has been lately. The right-hander has been lit up for a 10.31 ERA over his last five games.
One of Paddack’s biggest problems is he's finding way too much of the zone with his fastball which he throws over 60 percent of the time. As a result, opponents are hammering it for a .313 average. Paddack has also allowed three earned runs or more in six of his last nine games. That doesn’t bode well against a Braves team that has plated 6.25 runs per game over their last eight contests.
And while Muller has been a great story so far for the Braves, the Padres are the best lineup he has faced to this point, ranking seventh in scoring and batting average and are the fourth hardest to strike out. If the Padres can work some counts and get Muller out of the game early he’ll hand the ball to a bullpen that can be shaky at times, ranking 22nd in ERA and 24th in WHIP.
Bet this one to go Over.
PREDICTION: Over 7.5 (+100)
Padres vs Braves betting card
- Braves (+140)
- Over 7.5 (+100)
Picks made on 7/21/2021 at 8:15 a.m. ET
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