The Arizona Diamondbacks host the San Diego Padres tonight at Chase Field to kick off their final series of the regular season. MLB odds have Arizona as a -130 favorite, while the total sits at nine.
My Padres vs. Diamondbacks predictions are bullish on the Over, primarily due to the hitting prowess of these two lineups.
Read on for my MLB picks for Friday, September 27.
Padres vs Diamondbacks prediction
My best bet
Over 9 (-105 at DraftKings)
My analysis
These are two of the best lineups in baseball. Both teams rank in the top eight of the league in runs scored, hits, batting average, OBP, SLG, and OPS.
The San Diego Padres should particularly tee off on Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander Merrill Kelly, who possesses a modest 3.71 ERA and 1.13 WHIP through 12 starts this season.
With that said, his underlying metrics are far more concerning. Kelly owns a 5.10 xERA and ranks in the 17th percentile or lower in xBA, average exit velocity, and barrel rate, suggesting regression is looming. Kelly has never missed many bats, but his 20.1% strikeout rate is the second-lowest of his career. And no offense punishes pitch-to-contact hurlers quite like San Diego. The Padres have the highest batting average in baseball (.264) and the lowest strikeout rate (17.5%).
So Kelly's expected regression could easily come to fruition against San Diego, against whom he owns a 5.71 ERA over their past three meetings.
Kelly is also unlikely to get bailed out by his bullpen, considering that Arizona’s relief pitching ranks in the bottom half of the league in ERA, FIP, and xFIP.
And while Yu Darvish is a formidable pitcher on the Padres bump, this Diamondbacks offense has consistently ranked out as one of baseball's best. They trail only the Yankees and Dodgers in wRC+ for the season and rank second in slugging and fifth in home runs. The long ball has been one of Darvish's bugaboos despite solid numbers this season.
Padres vs Diamondbacks same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 9
Padres moneyline
Continuing this fade of Kelly, this current San Diego lineup boasts a .247 xBA, .411 xSLG, and .317 xwOBA through 173 combined career plate appearances against the right-hander. Another reason to back the Padres in this spot is the bullpen differential.
This season, San Diego’s relief staff outranks Arizona’s in ERA, FIP, and xFIP. I’m also not worried about the D-backs’ home-field advantage, considering that the Padres’ road win percentage is north of Arizona’s home win percentage.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Padres vs Diamondbacks odds
Padres vs Diamondbacks live odds
Padres vs Diamondbacks opening odds
- Moneyline: San Diego +110 | Arizona -130
- Run line: San Diego +1.5 (-185) | Arizona -1.5 (+150)
- Over/Under: Over 9 (-105) | Under 9 (-115)
Padres vs Diamondbacks moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- Arizona opened as a -130 favorite and remains at that price at the time of writing.
- The total opened at nine and also remains at that number.
- I think it is more likely that this total moves to 9.5 rather than 8.5, given that both lineups rank in the top eight of the league in most offensive categories.
Padres vs Diamondbacks trend
[Stat]. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Diamondbacks.
Padres vs Diamondbacks game info
| Location: | Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date: | Friday, 9-27-2024 |
| First pitch: | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SDPA, ARID |
| Padres starting pitcher: | Yu Darvish (6-3, 3.18 ERA) |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher: | Merrill Kelly (5-0, 3.71 ERA) |
Padres vs Diamondbacks latest injuries
Padres vs Diamondbacks weather
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