Padres vs Dodgers NLDS Game 5 Prop Bets: Higashioka Holds His Own

Prop bet #1: Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 total bases

-115 at bet365

All eyes will be on Shohei Ohtani when he comes to the plate against San Diego Padres starter Yu Darvish. Ohtani has gone just 1-for-8 in his career against Darvish and the Padres right-hander pitched a gem in Game 2, holding the Los Angeles Dodgers to three hits through seven innings of one-run ball. 

That said, I can't turn down a hitter of Ohtani's caliber at this price on his total bases prop. Ohtani finished the regular season slashing .320/.390/.646 while clubbing an NL-high 54 homers and smashing 38 doubles.

His batting numbers ticked up at home, where he slugged .675 and he thrived with the platoon advantage, slugging .717 against righties like Darvish. The Dodgers superstar finished the regular season on a tear, slashing .376/.436/.776 with 97 total bases in his last 30 games. 

Darvish had a 3.31 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP in 16 starts this year but his peripheral numbers were less impressive with his average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and ground-ball rate ranking in the Bottom 40th percentile. 

Ohtani hasn't hit well against Darvish but eight at-bats isn't a statistically significant enough number for me to fade him given all the other factors in his favor. Especially since there's a good chance he'll be facing relief pitchers in the final few innings.

Prop bet #2: Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 1.5 earned runs allowed

-114 at Caesars

Yoshinobu Yamamoto entered the majors this season as one of the most hyped international players in years after winning three-straight Pacific League MVP awards. The righty put together an impressive rookie campaign, pitching to a 3.00 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP across 18 starts.

That said, there's plenty of reason to think the O/U on his earned runs is too low here. Keep in mind that his expected ERA was a tick higher at 3.44 and he ranked in the Bottom 40th percentile in barrel rate and the Bottom 30th percentile in hard-hit rate. 

Yamamoto was shelled for five runs in three innings in Game 1 of this series. He also closed the regular season with a pair of shaky outings against the Rockies where he surrendered six runs across eight innings. Going back to earlier in the year, Yamamoto made two other starts against the Padres, surrendering three runs in five innings against them in April while getting ripped for five runs in just one inning in his MLB debut in March. 

He's facing a stacked Padres lineup that led the majors in batting average (.272) and ranked fourth in OPS (.764) against righties despite playing their home games at a pitcher-friendly park. The Friars were shut out in Game 4 but still have an impressive .795 OPS this postseason and they should bounce back against the inexperienced Yamamoto.

Prop bet #3: Kyle Higashioka Over 0.5 RBIs

+320 at bet365

After spending his entire career with the Yankees, Kyle Higashioka was traded to the Padres last December and has put together his best campaign yet. While he didn't stand out at the beginning of the year, he stepped up his play once Luis Campusano went on the IL.

Since the start of June, Higashioka has slugged .533 in 60 regular season starts while clubbing 16 homers and driving in 42 RBIs. That strong play has continued into the postseason where he has jacked three homers and racked up five RBIs through six games. 

While Higashioka bats at the bottom of the lineup, San Diego's ability to hit 1-9 means that he has a decent chance of entering the batter's box with runners on base. That makes him a tempting bet at +320 to drive in a run today.