The San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers face off in Game 5 of the NLDS on Friday night. This contest will have a distinctly Asian feel to it with NL MVP favorite Shohei Ohtani taking center stage and both teams starting Japanese pitchers.
I'm looking at all three of them in my Padres vs. Dodgers predictions, but my favorite play is a plus-money bet on an American of Japanese descent in Kyle Higashioka. Here are my Padres vs. Dodgers props and MLB picks for October 11.
Padres vs Dodgers NLDS Game 5 props
- Ohtani Over 1.5 total bases (-115 at bet365)
- Yamamoto Over 1.5 earned runs allowed (-114 at Caesars)
- Higashioka Over 0.5 RBIs (+320 at bet365)
Picks made on 10-11 at 11:50 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
Padres vs Dodgers props
Prop bet #1: Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 total bases
All eyes will be on Shohei Ohtani when he comes to the plate against San Diego Padres starter Yu Darvish. Ohtani has gone 1-for-8 with just a single and three strikeouts in his career against Darvish, and the Padres right-hander pitched a gem in Game 2 while holding the Los Angeles Dodgers to just three hits through seven innings of one-run ball.
That said, I can't turn down a hitter of Ohtani's caliber at this price on his total bases prop. Ohtani finished the regular season slashing .320/.390/.646 while clubbing an NL-high 54 homers and smashing 38 doubles.
His batting numbers ticked up at home, where he slugged .675 and he thrived with the platoon advantage, slugging .717 against righties like Darvish. The Dodgers superstar finished the regular season on an incredible tear, slashing .376/.436/.776 with 97 total bases in his last 30 games.
Darvish had a 3.31 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP in 16 starts this year, although he missed three months due an injury followed by a personal leave from the team. His peripheral numbers were less impressive though with his average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and ground-ball rate ranking in the Bottom 40th percentile.
While Ohtani has poor numbers versus Darvish, eight at-bats isn't that a statistically significant enough number for me to fade him given all the other factors in his favor here. Especially since there's a good chance he'll be facing Padres relievers in the final few innings.
Prop bet #2: Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 1.5 earned runs allowed
Yoshinobu Yamamoto entered the majors this season as one of the most hyped international players in years after winning three-straight Pacific League MVP awards. The righty put together an impressive rookie campaign, pitching to a 3.00 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP across 18 starts.
That said, there's plenty of reason to think the O/U on his earned runs is too low here. Keep in mind that his expected ERA was a tick higher at 3.44 and he ranked in the Bottom 40th percentile in barrel rate and the Bottom 30th percentile in hard-hit rate.
Yamamoto was shelled for five runs in three innings in Game 1 of this series. He also closed the regular season with a pair of shaky outings against the Rockies where he surrendered six runs across eight innings. Going back to earlier in the year, Yamamoto made two other starts against the Padres, surrendering three runs in five innings against them in April while getting ripped for five runs in just one inning in his MLB debut in March.
He's facing a stacked Padres lineup that led the majors in batting average (.272) and ranked fourth in OPS (.764) against righties despite playing their home games at a pitcher-friendly park. The Friars were shut out last night but they still have an impressive .795 OPS this postseason and they should bounce back against the inexperienced Yamamoto.
Prop bet #3: Kyle Higashioka Over 0.5 RBIs
After spending his entire career with the Yankees, Kyle Higashioka was traded to the Padres last December and has put together his best campaign yet. While he didn't stand out at the beginning of the year, he stepped up his play once Luis Campusano went on the IL.
Since the start of June, Higashioka has slugged .533 in 60 regular season starts while clubbing 16 homers and driving in 42 RBIs. That strong play has continued into the postseason where he has jacked three homers and racked up five RBIs through six games.
While Higashioka bats at the bottom of the lineup, San Diego's ability to hit 1-9 means that he has a decent chance of entering the batter's box with runners on base. That makes him a tempting bet at +320 to drive in a run today.
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