The Los Angeles Dodgers host the San Diego Padres in this week's edition of Sunday Night Baseball. While the Dodgers hold the edge on the moneyline, there is value to be found on the Padres' side of the ball.
Right-hander Mike Clevinger draws the start for San Diego and is in a fine position to clear the strikeouts total set for him while Manny Machado can be anticipated to get the job done on offense once more even if the Padres ultimately lose. And even if the Dodgers win, Joey Gallo hasn't been much of a contributing factor in recent games.
Here are our favorite Sunday Night Baseball player prop picks for September 4.
MLB props for Padres vs Dodgers
Picks made on 9/4/2022 at 2:30 p.m. ET.
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best Padres vs Dodgers prop bets
Gallo Gallo Gallo!
After a brief rebound following his trade from the New York Yankees, outfielder Joey Gallo has reverted back to the version of himself who never makes enough contact for his power to be much of a threat. He's batting .164 on the season, .185 with the Dodgers, and .129 over his last 38 plate appearances dating back to August 18.
And yet, the Under on his total hits remains at plus money (or, at worst, even money).
Gallo still draws walks, but he's striking out in around 40% of his plate appearances over his last 12 games (10 starts). He's 0-for-8 vs. Clevinger for his career, and he barely holds a handedness advantage when it comes to facing right-handers, anyway. He's batting just .179 against righties on the season.
While characterized as a three true outcomes beast, strikeouts and walks have been the only two that come to fruition with any regularity since his departure from Texas. He's routinely batting in the bottom-third of Los Angeles' lineup, too, which only hinders his chances at seeing enough at-bats to do damage.
Joey Gallo Prop: Under 0.5 hits (+105 at DraftKings)
Mike drop
Mike Clevinger has been a strikeout pitcher in the past but that hasn't exactly been the case in San Diego, especially in the wake of Tommy John surgery that cost him all of 2021.
But his spin rate has been gradually improving on his fastball even if the velocity hasn't fully caught up to pre-surgery numbers.
The Dodgers are daunting against any pitcher and don't exactly strike out to extreme levels. But this number is surprisingly low and almost certainly based on his recent dip in strikeouts. Clevinger notched five or more strikeouts in eight of his first 11 starts before his recent fallow period.
The BAT X projects him to emerge with 4.6 strikeouts and FanGraphs has him pegged for 5.1. If Clevinger can mix his arsenal of pitches, which he normally does as he only deploys his fastball around 36% of the time, then he will keep the Dodgers lineup off balance just enough to come in with the Over on his total strikeouts.
Mike Clevinger Prop: Over 4.5 strikeouts (+105)
Machado about everything
The Dodgers have a great bullpen and there's really no way to dispute that. However, a bullpen day is not exactly a recipe for success even for the most elite of relief corps.
This is especially the case when Manny Machado is swinging the bat on the other side. Machado has hit a home run in back-to-back games in this series and has tallied at least two bases in six of his last seven games.
For the season, Machado is batting .306/.374/.546 and his 259 total bases ranks eighth in the majors. He has power and excellent bat-on-ball skills, which helps boost his chances at picking up a pair of hits if he's not going for extra bases right away.
Lefty Caleb Ferguson is technically starting for the Dodgers, which marks his first such appearance in 2022. Pitching exclusively out of the bullpen, Ferguson hasn't gone longer than 1 1-3 innings in any appearance this season, which makes it highly unlikely that he pitches through the Padres lineup even once in its entirety.
Rookie right-hander Ryan Pepiot will be the long man for Los Angeles, and he's done OK at the big-league level while struggling with walks and the long ball. He's allowed six homers in just 31 1-3 innings.
Machado has hit righties better than lefties this season, batting .327 with 17 home runs and 30 doubles. I like Machado to keep his hot streak going against Pepiot and the pen.
Manny Machado Prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+100)
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