The San Diego Padres and the New York Mets wrap up a three-game series at Citi Field on Wednesday afternoon. They split the previous two contests, with the Padres winning 4-2 yesterday.
Both of these clubs are contenders on the World Series odds board, with the Mets having the fifth-best odds to win it all, and the Padres tied for sixth. MLB odds opened with this contest as a pick'em, but the line has moved slightly towards the home side with the Mets now at -115. The Over/Under sits at 8.5.
Here are my best free MLB picks and predictions for Padres vs. Mets on Wednesday, April 12.
Padres vs Mets odds
Padres vs Mets predictions
Mets starter Tylor Megill has been lights out to start the season, while San Diego's Blake Snell has looked awful. However, the track records of both pitchers suggest that they'll regress in opposite directions over the course of the season.
Snell won the AL Cy Young in 2018, and while he hasn't recaptured that form, he put together a very nice campaign for the Padres last year when he pitched to a 3.38 ERA with a .216 OBA in 24 starts. In fact, he also started off last season looking shaky before settling down, and his velocity and movement haven't dropped off, so his stuff is still there.
Meanwhile, Megill has a sizzling 1.64 ERA across two starts, but let's keep in mind that both of those came against the punchless Marlins. He also started off last season strong but then got banged up and struggled before finishing the year in the bullpen.
The Mets have also been struggling at the plate so far this season, ranking 26th in the majors in OPS (.664) and batting just .214. The Padres have been a bit better at the dish, and their top of the order is loaded with Xander Bogaerts, Juan Soto, and Manny Machado.
Expect Snell to smooth out the wrinkles against a struggling Mets lineup, and back the Friars on the moneyline.
My best bet: Padres ML (-105 at bet365)
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Padres vs Mets moneyline analysis
The Padres and Mets entered yesterday's game all tied up at 6-5 on the season, but a loss by the Mets dropped them to .500, while the Friars improved to 7-5. Machado drove in a pair of runs to take the lead in the fourth inning, and Bogaerts drove in two more in the bottom of the ninth.
That allowed the Padres to bounce back from a 4-0 loss in the series opener when they were shut down by future Hall-of-Famer Max Scherzer and an improved Mets bullpen.
That bullpen showed cracks last night, and it will be interesting to see how they perform throughout the year.
San Diego is now 4-1 in its last five games, and will try to keep mashing as they eagerly await the return of Fernando Tatis Jr. from his suspension on April 20. The recently-acquired Bogaerts has picked up the slack, as has catcher Luis Campusano, who is starting to show the potential that made him a Top-100 prospect for three years in a row.
The Padres have tried to shore up their bullpen, and while Josh Hader has been excellent, injuries to Robert Suarez, Drew Pomeranz, and Adrian Morejon have hurt.
The Mets have only gotten consistent offensive production from Pete Alonso and Starling Marte, and the power-hitting Alonso is batting just .222.
Padres vs Mets Over/Under analysis
The Mets should be hitting much better than they are, especially with the usually productive Francisco Lindor mired in a slump and Jeff McNeil not making his usual contact.
That said, the analytics indicate that a turnaround might not be on the horizon. New York is 29th in the majors in BABIP (.247), 28th in hard-hit rate, and 24th in barrel rate.
The Padres have been hitting better in recent weeks, with the exception of that performance against Scherzer on Monday. That said, they also have a few underachieving sluggers with Soto and Matt Carpenter both batting below .200.
They aren't much better than the Mets in BABIP (.269), and 23rd in hard-hit rate.
Padres vs Mets game info
| Location: | Citi Field, Flushing, NY |
| Date: | Wednesday, April 12, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 1:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally San Diego, SNY |
Padres vs Mets betting preview
Starting pitchers
Blake Snell (0-1, 7.88 ERA): Snell began the year with a pair of shaky starts. He struck out nine batters against the Rockies at home in the season opener, but also gave up three runs in 4 1/3 innings. He followed up on that with an ugly performance against the Braves, where he walked four batters and gave up six hits before getting the hook midway through the fourth inning. The lefty still ranks in the Top 15th percentile in whiff rate, fastball spin, and extension. However, his expected batting average sits at a sky-high .325, and his xERA of 7.42 is almost as high as his overall ERA number.
Tyler Megill (2-0, 1.64 ERA): Both of Megill's starts this year came against the Marlins, and he picked up wins in both outings. He allowed six hits and two runs in that first game, while fanning seven batters in five innings. He followed up on that by scattering three hits across six scoreless innings last Friday. The 27-year-old could be on the verge of a breakout season, and looked great at the start of last year before finishing with a 5.13 ERA in 47 1/3 innings.
Latest injuries
Trend to know
The Mets are 2-10 in their last 12 games versus a team with a winning record. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Mets
