The Toronto Blue Jays' front office had seen enough. The team has underachieved to this point and Wednesday they decided a change needed to be made, firing manager Charlie Montoyo ahead of tonight’s game against the Philadelphia Phillies.
The Jays will have to move on quickly, as they will be slight favorites handing the ball to reliable Ross Stripling — but they’ll be in tough as the Phillies counter with Zack Wheeler.
Will Montoyo’s firing open the door for Philly to take advantage, providing value as an underdog? Find out in our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Phillies vs. Blue Jays on Wednesday, July 13.
Phillies vs Blue Jays odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Blue Jays opened this interleague matchup as about even-money underdogs, but have since seen the line move to -120 in their favor. The total hit the board at 8 and is slightly juiced to the Under as of Wednesday afternoon.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Phillies vs Blue Jays predictions
Picks made on 7/13/2022 at 3:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Phillies vs Blue Jays game info
• Location: Rogers Centre
• Date: Wednesday, July 13, 2022
• First pitch: 7:07 p.m. ET
• TV: NBC Sports Philadelphia, Sportsnet
Phillies vs Blue Jays betting preview
Starting pitchers
Zack Wheeler (8-4, 2.46 ERA): Wheeler has basically been outstanding since the end of April. The right-hander has pitched to a 1.53 ERA over his last 13 starts and comes into this game having thrown 17 1-3 consecutive scoreless innings.
Ross Stripling 4-3, 3.34 ERA): Stripling has been one of the few positives for the Jays recently. Since taking over a permanent spot in the rotation in early June, the right-hander has pitched to a 2.55 ERA and an equally impressive 2.88 FIP over seven starts.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 6-0 in the Phillies' last six games overall and 6-2 in the Blue Jays' last eight overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Blue Jays
Phillies vs Blue Jays picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
Winning last night’s opener against the Phillies was not enough to save Charlie Montoyo’s job. The writing was on the wall after a disastrous west-coast road trip. And for a team that had World Series aspirations prior to the season, 46-42 right before the All-Star break was not good enough.
So, bench coach John Schneider takes over in the interim. Schneider should have some pull with this group as he came up with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette through the minors. But will that mean anything tonight against the Phillies?
Well, Schneider will have the luxury of handing the ball to one of his most reliable starters in Ross Stripling. As noted, the right-hander has shined since joining the rotation permanently. He has lowered his expected ERA to 4.17 and has been using an effective changeup much more. That said, he is still allowing opponents to hit for a .286 expected batting average.
Although the Philly offense is a little shorthanded at the moment, there are still some dangerous batters at the top of that lineup, including Kyle Schwarber, Rhys Hoskins, and Nick Castellanos.
Not many are hitting off Zack Wheeler on the other hand. The right-hander is pitching to a 2.74 xERA, limiting opponents to a .229 batting average, and striking out nearly 10 batters per nine innings this season.
He’ll stare across at a talented but inconsistent Blue Jays lineup. Over the last 10 games — where the Jays are just 2-8 — they have topped three runs just three times and rank a mediocre 16th in OPS.
Additionally, the Phillies have the edge in bullpens as well. Philadelphia's high leverage relievers have been surprisingly solid, and with Wheeler averaging nearly 6.5 innings per start over his last 13, it won’t take much work to get to those guys. The Jays’ bullpen on the other hand has been an Achillies heel all season, ranking 22nd in ERA and 19th in strikeouts.
Even missing a few pieces on offense, the Phillies should be slight favorites with Wheeler going in this matchup, so take the value with them as underdogs tonight.
Prediction: Phillies moneyline (+102 at FanDuel)
Over/Under analysis
When it comes to the total, 8.0 feels like a pretty good number, but I'm leaning towards the Under.
It all starts with Wheeler. The right-hander mixes his pitches very effectively to not only create a lot of soft contact, but to strike out a fair number of batters as well. It will be interesting to see how the Blue Jays come out in this matchup after the firing of Montoyo. Will they be focused? I’m not so sure.
This is a lineup that is struggling once again to hit with runners in scoring position, managing just 2.9 runs per game over their last 10 games. The home runs have dried up a bit as well, with the Jays getting just 10 round-trippers over that span. And it’s not like they’ll start whacking them against Wheeler who has allowed just five home runs all season.
The Phillies' offense is also drying up. In part due to injuries/absences and in part because they’ve just hit a slump. Either way, over their last seven games they are hitting just .213 while plating 2.43 runs per game.
While the bullpens could blow this, I'm still liking the Under in this matchup.
Prediction: Under 8 (-110 at FanDuel)
Best bet
Speaking of bullpens blowing things up, let’s just avoid that entirely by looking at the first-five total in this matchup. I really believe both starting pitchers have a chance to be successful.
Wheeler has been outstanding, while Stripling has been good enough and is going against a battered Phillies' lineup. Bet on the starters to control this game early and take the Under on the first five innings.
Pick: Under 4.5 first five innings (-132 at FanDuel)
