The Philadelphia Phillies (69-46) appear to have broken out of their slump, picking up a series win over the Los Angeles Dodgers before swiping Game 1 against the Arizona Diamondbacks (63-53) by a score of 6-4.
Arizona is a tough out, winning 12 of its last 15 games, setting the table for an intriguing Game 2 on Friday night.
Read on for my Phillies vs. Diamondbacks predictions and MLB picks and predictions for Friday, August 9.
Phillies vs Diamondbacks prediction
My best bet
Bryce Harper Over 1.5 total bases (+100 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Toward the end of July, Bryce Harper found himself in a slump. The slugger went hitless in seven of eight games spanning July 24 to August 2, and the Philadelphia Phillies — not coincidentally — went 1-7 in that stretch. Naturally, he homered in the lone game that they won.
Harper has since broken out of his slump and his team has roared back to life. The 31-year-old is 9-for-22 with two doubles and a home run in his last five games, and the Phillies have won four of them.
Ryne Nelson gets the call on Friday night for the Arizona Diamondbacks. In his most recent appearance, the former second-round pick was knocked around for four earned runs by the Pittsburgh Pirates, marking the eighth time this season (19 starts) that he’s surrendered four or more earned runs.
Nelson’s underlying metrics leave much to be desired. He rarely makes batters swing-and-miss, ranking in the fourth percentile in whiff rate (17.8%) and the 17th percentile in K-rate (18.1%). This leaves him ill-equipped to take advantage of Harper’s greatest weakness — his penchant for the punchout.
Nelson allows plenty of worrisome contact with a 13th percentile average exit velocity (90.4 mph) rank, leading to a .269 xBA (19th percentile). He’s been torched at Chase Field in his career, surrendering a 6.44 ERA and 1.62 WHIP across a large sample size of 116 innings.
Harper is showing signs of heating up and gets a favorable matchup against Nelson, who pitches to contact and routinely gets bombed when pitching at home. I’ll bet on Harper exceeding his total bases prop.
Phillies vs Diamondbacks same-game parlay (SGP)
Bryce Harper Over 1.5 total bases
Zack Wheeler Over 5.5 strikeouts
Phillies Team Total Over 4.5
Zach Wheeler takes the mound for Philadelphia after blanking the Seattle Mariners for eight innings while striking out nine and allowing just two hits in his last start. Arizona doesn’t strike out much, but Wheeler’s K prop of 5.5 is too low considering he’s recorded six or more punchouts in five straight.
The Phillies have come alive offensively, scoring six or more runs in four of their last five games, and a friendly matchup against Nelson likely won’t bring about the end of their run. They’ve struggled against RHPs lately but Nelson has reverse splits (.284 BA allowed to right-handed batters), which mitigates that concern.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Phillies vs Diamondbacks odds
Phillies vs Diamondbacks live odds
Phillies vs Diamondbacks opening odds
- Run line: Philadelphia -1.5 | Arizona +1.5
- Moneyline: Philadelphia -150 | Arizona +138
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Phillies vs Diamondbacks spread and Over/Under analysis
- Philadelphia is 13-5 in Wheeler’s last 18 starts while Arizona is 6-0 in Nelson’s last six starts, so both teams have found success with their respective starting pitchers on the bump.
- Arizona has played to the Over at home, going 34-22-1 O/U.
- Both teams have trended toward the Over lately at 7-2-1 O/U apiece.
- Arizona is 7-1 O/U in Nelson’s last eight starts.
Phillies vs Diamondbacks trend
Bryce Harper has recorded two or more total bases in five of his last six games. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Diamondbacks.
Phillies vs Diamondbacks game info
| Location: | Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date: | Friday, 8-9-2024 |
| First pitch: | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBCSP, ARID |
| Phillies starting pitcher: | Zack Wheeler (11-5, 2.77 ERA) |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher: | Ryne Nelson (8-6, 4.65 ERA) |
Phillies vs Diamondbacks latest injuries
Phillies vs Diamondbacks weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
