The Philadelphia Phillies and Miami Marlins begin a four-game series in the Sunshine State tonight.
Although Philadelphia is one of the best teams in the league, my Phillies vs. Marlins predictions are betting on the home team to pull off the upset. Here are my best free MLB picks for this NL East showdown on Thursday, September 5.
Phillies vs Marlins prediction
My best bet
Marlins moneyline (+200 at bet365)
My analysis
The Philadelphia Phillies are massive -250 road favorites today, and given how inconsistent starter Ranger Suarez has been, that line looks like a trap.
Keep in mind that while Suarez had a 1.83 ERA with a 0.92 WHIP in his first 16 starts of the year, he has pitched to a 6.90 ERA with a 1.60 WHIP in six starts since. That ugly stretch began with an ugly outing against the Miami Marlins on June 30, surrendering 10 hits and six runs through 4 2/3 innings.
The Marlins were one of the worst-hitting teams in the NL for the first half of the year, but they've since picked things up. Before the All-Star break, they ranked 29th in the majors in OPS (.638) and averaged just 3.5 runs per game. However, since the break, they've improved to 15th in OPS (.735) and are now averaging 4.42 runs per game.
Although the Phillies boast a strong lineup, they tend to underperform on the road and could be without two of their top hitters — All-Star slugger Bryce Harper and Alec Bohm — who both missed last night’s game due to injuries. With Philadelphia comfortably atop the NL East, it makes sense to give them another day of rest, making the home side even more tempting at +200.
Phillies vs Marlins same-game parlay (SGP)
Phillies moneyline
Derek Hill 1+ hits
Brandon Marsh 1+ hits
Derek Hill is slashing a modest .238 this year, but his expected batting average is a respectable .259. He has the platoon advantage against Suarez and has gone 3-for-4 at the dish against the left-hander in his career.
Although I like the moneyline value on fading Suarez and the Phillies, I'm still not sold on Marlins starter Adam Oller. There's a reason the 29-year-old has bounced between the minors and the bigs, as he sports a 5.30 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP in 52 2/3 innings in Triple-A this year. Brandon Marsh holds the platoon advantage against Oller and is batting .364 over his last 10 games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Phillies vs Marlins odds
Phillies vs Marlins live odds
Phillies vs Marlins opening odds
- Moneyline: Philadelphia -240 | Miami +195
- Run line: Philadelphia -1.5 (-140) | Miami +1.5 (+120)
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-110) | Under 8 (-110)
Phillies vs Marlins moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Phillies are 9-2 in their last 11 games and have the second-best record in the majors at 83-56.
- While the Marlins hold the third-worst record in the majors at 53-87, they have won six of their last 10 games.
- Miami is 4-3 in the last seven meetings between these divisional foes, with all of those wins coming as underdogs of +180 or larger.
Phillies vs Marlins trend
The Marlins have hit the team total Over in 22 of their last 34 games at home (+8.55 Units / 21% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Marlins.
Phillies vs Marlins game info
| Location: | LoanDepot Park, Miami, FL |
| Date: | Thursday, 9-5-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC Sports Philadelphia, Bally Sports Florida |
| Phillies starting pitcher: | Ranger Suarez (11-6, 3.02 ERA) |
| Marlins starting pitcher: | Adam Oller (1-1, 3.31 ERA) |
Phillies vs Marlins latest injuries
Phillies vs Marlins weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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