The New York Mets will look to win in their first home playoff game of 2024 on Tuesday night as they host the Philadelphia Phillies in a critical Game 3 NLDS matchup.
In my Phillies vs. Mets predictions, I’ll explain why I like the Over tonight in this matchup of two of the best lineups in baseball.
Keep reading to see my full analysis of my MLB picks for this postseason clash on Tuesday, October 8. For more on this game, we've also pinpointed a trio of Phillies vs. Mets player props.
Phillies vs Mets prediction
Who will win Phillies vs Mets Game 3?
The New York Mets may seem like a team of destiny right now, but tonight's pitching matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies — especially when you consider how well Philly has hit lefties in general and Sean Manaea in particular. The Phillies are my pick to win Game 3.
My Phillies vs Mets best bet
Pick
Over 7 (-115 at Caesars)
My analysis
The Mets and Phillies have been trading blows since the end of the regular season. The teams have met nine times since September 13, with the Mets holding a slight 5-4 advantage in those contests. More telling, however, is despite both teams taking each of these matchups seriously, seven of the nine have hit the Over.
That’s not terribly surprising when you consider the makeup of these teams. While both boast quality pitching, their real strengths lie in their respective lineups. The Phillies averaged 4.84 runs per game during the regular season, ranking fifth in the majors, while the Mets were seventh at 4.74.
Both teams have superstars in Bryce Harper and Francisco Lindor, but also roll out deep lineups, meaning it’s not just about shutting down one or two players before coasting through the innings in between their at-bats. Shutting down either of these lineups takes a special performance, and there’s no indication we should expect that from either of tonight’s starters.
Phillies starter Aaron Nola bounced back from a shaky 2023 with a better performance this season, going 14-8 with a 3.57 ERA. However, he was still vulnerable to the long ball — he led the NL by allowing 30 homers in 199 1/3 innings — and his strikeout numbers continued to drop for the fourth straight year, falling below one per inning in 2024. Against the Mets, he allowed six earned runs in 13 1/3 innings this season, mixing a horrid start with a complete-game shutout when New York was struggling in May.
Manaea had his best season in years for the Mets, posting a 3.47 ERA and a 1.084 WHIP in 32 starts. But he has allowed 10 earned runs in his last 15 2/3 innings and posted a 5.40 ERA against the Phillies in three starts this year. Philadelphia mashed against lefties overall, posting a .783 OPS against southpaws — 48 points higher than against right-handed pitching.
Each starter can keep his team in the game, but these lineups should ultimately have their way tonight. And with the total set at just seven runs flat, the Over is clearly the play for Game 3.
Phillies vs Mets same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 7
Trea Turner 1+ hits
Francisco Lindor 2+ total bases
I’m looking for these teams to blow past the total tonight, and that means finding offense on both sides for my same-game parlay. I’m starting with a bet on the Over, and combining that with prop bets on two hitters that are primed for success tonight.
First, I like Trea Turner to pick up a hit. Turner was a .303 hitter against lefties this season and is contributing well as of late, smacking five hits in his last four games.
I’ll also take Mets star Lindor to pick up at least two total bases, something he’s done four times in his last seven games dating back to the end of the regular season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Phillies vs Mets odds
Phillies vs Mets live odds
Phillies vs Mets opening odds
- Moneyline: Philadelphia -108 | New York +100
- Run line: Philadelphia -1.5 | New York +1.5
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Phillies vs Mets moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Mets have earned nearly 13 units for bettors on the moneyline this year, with the Phillies returning a modest 1.5-unit profit for their backers in 2024.
- Philadelphia posted a 21-12 record when Nola took the mound this year. New York was 23-9 with Manaea on the hill during the regular season.
- These are two of the higher run-total teams in the majors, with the Phillies averaging a total of 9.00 runs per game, and the Mets coming in at 9.05.
- The Over went 85-77 when New York played this season and was 80-75 in Philadelphia’s games.
Phillies vs Mets trend
The Over is 7-2 in the nine meetings between the Phillies in Mets over the past month. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Mets.
Phillies vs Mets Game 3 info
| Location: | Citi Field, Queens, NY |
| Date: | Tuesday, 10-8-2024 |
| First pitch: | 5:08 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
| Phillies starting pitcher: | Aaron Nola (14-8, 3.57 ERA) |
| Mets starting pitcher: | Sean Manaea (12-6, 3.47 ERA) |
Phillies vs Mets latest injuries
Phillies vs Mets weather
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