It’s a critical NL East showdown at Citi Field with the Philadelphia Phillies closing in on the division title and the New York Mets battling for an NL wild card.
New York's rolling and reliable righty Luis Severino will take the hill against Philadelphia and our top Phillies vs. Mets predictions and MLB picks are calling for the righty to hit the showers early.
Phillies vs Mets prediction
My best bet
Luis Severino Under 17.5 outs recorded (+135 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
The New York Mets are rolling along on a 15-4 heater in the thick of the NL wild-card race. A big reason why they’re in this position is the consistency Luis Severino has brought to the mound as a go-to starter.
Severino was unable to top the first-place Philadelphia Phillies on Saturday, though, and the righty faces them again tonight.
It’s a short turnaround to go up against a deep lineup packing plenty of punch. The Phillies have a solid .318 wOBA against right-handed pitchers for the season and a fourth-ranked .332 overall mark since the calendar flipped to September. Severino also served up two homers and a higher-than-usual 37.5% hard-hit rate in that most recent outing.
Additionally, while Severino logged six full frames, he’s still recorded 17 or fewer in six of his past 10 trips to the hill. The Mets also have a rested bullpen. They cruised to consecutive victories and outscored the Washington Nationals 20-1 the past two days.
I anticipate Severino will have a tougher time navigating the Philly lineup this time around, and Mets manager Carlos Mendoza will hand the ball over to one of his rested high-end relievers before the end of the sixth. After all, the New York bullpen paces the majors with a 3.22 xFIP in September and ranks sixth with a 3.83 mark for the season.
Finally, we’re landing a fair number here because the early action has been lopsided to the Under in this market.
Phillies vs Mets same-game parlay (SGP)
Luis Severino Under 17.5 outs
Over 8.5
Bryce Harper Over 0.5 walks
The Over 8.5 runs aligns with Severino also failing to finish six frames, but I’m also targeting it because Philly is turning to righty Taijuan Walker to make his first start since Aug. 28. Walker sports a 6.50 ERA and 5.02 xFIP through 70 2/3 innings as a starter, and he’s been tuned up for a .397 wOBA.
Phillies first baseman Bryce Harper teed off for both homers against Severino on Saturday, so I expect the Mets righty to be extra cautious against the two-time NL MVP tonight. Plus, Harper is no stranger to being selective at the dish with a solid 11.3 BB% against right-handed hurlers for the season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Phillies vs Mets odds
Phillies vs Mets live odds
Phillies vs Mets opening odds
- Moneyline: Philadelphia +120 | New York -140
- Run line: Philadelphia +1.5 (-180) | New York -1.5 (+150)
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-110) | Under 8 (-110)
Phillies vs Mets moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- There has been limited movement to this moneyline, with bet365 still trading at the opening Mets -140.
- I don’t suspect there will be meaningful action on the Phillies, either. As noted, the Mets are rolling and Walker’s performance as a starter is confidence shattering.
- This total has seen more movement. Pinnacle has tested an 8.5 total multiple times before returning to the opening 8.0.
- While bet365 hasn’t moved off its opening 8.0, there has been a 10-cent climb to the Over to -120.
Phillies vs Mets trend
Luis Severino has recorded 17 or fewer outs in six of his past 10 starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Mets.
Phillies vs Mets game info
| Location: | Citi Field, Flushing, NY |
| Date: | Thursday, 9-19-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Phillies starting pitcher: | Taijuan Walker (3-6, 6.29 ERA) |
| Mets starting pitcher: | Luis Severino (10-6, 3.77 ERA) |
Phillies vs Mets latest injuries
Phillies vs Mets weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
