The San Diego Padres managed just a single hit in the NLCS opener last night and have an even tougher task this afternoon vs. Aaron Nola and Philadelphia Phillies.
The Padres are still the MLB betting favorites (-120) and will need a gem out of Blake Snell today to even up the series. With the books not offering pitcher-out markets, both starters could return value on their strikeout markets.
Find out where my best bet lies in my free MLB picks and predictions for Phillies vs. Padres, and check out EV Analytics' Phillies vs. Padres insights for more.
Phillies vs Padres best odds
Phillies vs Padres picks and predictions
Both starting pitchers hit their Over strikeout markets last night and I think we see that again tonight.
Aaron Nola is sitting with a K total of 5.5 that's paying even money for the Over. He gets deeper than most pitchers and I’d expect him to get at least 17 to 18 outs today at Petco. He’s shut down some great offenses in St. Louis and Atlanta already in the postseason and hit the Over 5.5 in both those starts.
He had 10 Ks in his only start vs. the Padres this year (without Juan Soto) which was one shy of tying his season-high. The Padres could be squeezing the twig tightly today after getting one-hit last night.
With Nola posting a 32% called strike whiff percentage in his two postseason starts and throwing 70% of his pitches for strikes, he should be seeing a ton of two-strike counts and has a solid probability of finishing with more Ks than innings pitched.
I also love Snell’s Over 5.5 strikeouts but the -150 price for the Over is a little tough to swallow, especially if he struggles with command and Bob Melvin goes to the pen early as he did in Snell’s six-walk performance vs. the Mets.
I put both pitchers’ Over 5.5 strikeouts at least 55 to 60% percent to hit but the price of Nola offers much better value and has less risk than Snell, whose team trails 1-0 in the series.
My best bet: Aaron Nola Over 5.5 strikeouts (+100)
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Phillies vs Padres NLCS odds
| Teams | Odds to win series |
|---|---|
 Philadelphia Phillies |
-185 |
 San Diego Padres |
+160 |
Phillies vs Padres moneyline analysis
The Padres’ bats were silenced by Zack Wheeler last night, as the Phillies’ starter went seven scoreless innings and allowed just one single. San Diego had just four baserunners in the 2-0 loss and could struggle to jumpstart an offense that averaged 4.42 runs per game in the postseason before yesterday’s defeat.
San Diego will have to take on Philadelphia’s best in Nola. He has yet to allow an earned run and gave up just nine hits over 12-plus innings to solid lineups in the Cardinals and Braves. He is one of the best pitchers to get deep and with the Phillies using only two innings from the pen yesterday, Philadelphia is set up for a solid pitching blueprint.
The visitors also have the better offense and with home runs being the deciding factor for many of these postseason games, the edge has to go with the Phillies. Both Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber went deep yesterday off of Yu Darvish and those left-handed bats could be the difference with Blake Snell not having any split advantage vs. left-handed hitting.
Snell could certainly keep the Phillies in check, as he has been elite in the second half of the season with an ERA of 2.19 over his last 14 starts before the postseason. If his command is on, he could easily get 18 outs but he did have an ugly six-walk performance vs. the Mets in the Wild Card and has 17 walks over his last 37-plus innings. With how close this game projects, those walks could be the difference.
The Padres closed at -125 favorites yesterday and today’s line is looking the same. Nola should be valued as a bigger favorite than Wheeler and I see this game as more of a pick‘em.
Phillies vs Padres Over/Under analysis
Very few books opened this line at 7 and those that did moved to 6.5 immediately. Last night’s opener had a closing total of 6.5 and I value this pitching matchup to be even better than yesterday's.
Nola is one of the best hit-suppressing pitchers in baseball and actually finished with the highest WAR for starting pitchers. His 7.37 H/9 is one of the best marks and the right-hander has kept the ball in the park at a better rate this season and finished with a career-best 1.27 BB/9. When he starts, the bullpen only needs six to nine outs.
The Phillies may have won 2-0 last night but two of their three hits were four-baggers. The Phillies also only took one walk. Outside of Harper and Schwarber, the Phillies went 0-for-23 at the dish and face possibly a better starter in Snell.
The San Diego bullpen is also at full strength with the days off and only two innings of work last night.
The biggest thing that scares me on the Under is the weather as Petco Park will have 90-degree temperatures with low humidity, which is decent hitting weather.
The total is teetering on 7, but with the weather conditions, I’d rather hit the plus-money Under 6.5 at +105 than the Under 7 at -130 or -125. Both starting pitchers are very good at keeping the ball in the park which should negate the good-hitting weather.
Phillies vs Padres trend to know
The Under is 4-0 in Snell's last four home starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Padres
Phillies vs Padres game info
| Location: | Petco Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date: | Wednesday, October 19, 2022 |
| First pitch: | 4:35 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Starting pitchers
Aaron Nola (11-13, 3.25 ERA): Nola has made two postseason starts this run and has yet to allow an earned run over 12 2/3 innings. He’s also given up just nine hits over that stretch with a 12/3 K/BB ratio. He’s gone at least 18 outs and struck out six in each start. Nola’s numbers on the road were just as good as at home this year and he went seven innings, allowing one run vs. the Padres this season while striking out 10.
Blake Snell (8-10, 3.38 ERA): Snell will make his second 2022 postseason start and is coming off a 17-out, one-run performance vs. a very good Dodgers lineup. Snell has great career postseason numbers: 2.89 ERA, 43-plus innings, nine starts, and a 55/22 K/BB. Over his last 14 regular-season starts, the lefty has posted a 2.19 ERA with 105 strikeouts over 78 frames.
Phillies vs Padres latest injuries
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Phillies vs Padres weather
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