Phillies vs Rangers Predictions, Picks, Odds: Lean On Semien to Cross the Plate

It's our first Sunday Night Baseball of the MLB season, and the Texas Rangers will host the Philadelphia Phillies.

After being defeated in the World Series a season ago, the Phillies have gotten off to a slow start in their 2023 campaign. First, they lost an thrilling Opening Day contest to the Rangers, then were drilled yesterday, 16-2. On the other hand, the Rangers come into this season with high expectations, and have done nothing to lower those after a 2-0 start.

What's the best bet for this one? Find out in our MLB picks and predictions for Phillies vs. Rangers on Sunday, April 2.

Phillies vs Rangers odds

Phillies vs Rangers predictions

I love Marcus Semien. He represents a good version of the modern day baseball player to a T, and is a well-rounded athlete. That extends to his offensive game, where he can hit, run the basepaths, and — most importantly — gets on base. That is part of why we're hitting him tonight in the MLB player props, and grabbing Semien to record a run as our best bet.

This -110 line that we've found at bet365 is a great outliner, as it's shaded much lower than most other books. A look over at FanDuel, and you'll see it at -135. Take a peek at DraftKings, and you'll see this number at -130. That's an excellent edge, and one I'd consider notable. DraftKings, among others, is considered a sharper baseball book than Bet365. We'll use that advantage here.

Now, to the matchup.

Semien has started off 2023 well. He's gotten a hit in every game of this series, found himself on base more often than not, and recorded three runs in two games. We like that trend to continue for a multitude of reasons. First, Semien should be able to get on base at least twice today, and will see four plate appearances if the game follows the projected scoring. Most Rangers have yet to face Bailey Falter in their career, but the underlying metrics project positively.

Falter's deep numbers could be much better across the board, but his sinker and fastball numbers are the most relevant to this matchup. These two pitches comprise over 60% of his arsenal, and he's most comfortable with them.

What's so positive about this Semien play is that the players behind him are good at hitting these pitches. A season ago, Bubba Thompson — who is third behind Semien — had the second best run-value against these pitches of the Rangers lineup. In addition, Nathaniel Lowe — who bats directly behind Semien — had the third-best run value against sinkers in this lineup.

So as long as Semien can get on base, you have to think his speed and the ability of the players around him puts him in a position to score. Semien had the third-highest on-base percentage of any Ranger last season.

Back Semien to cross home here. This is a misprice for a player who has started the season so hot and is a great baserunner.

My best bet: Semien to record a run (-110 at bet365)

Phillies vs Rangers moneyline analysis

The Phillies need a win. You don't lose seasons anytime in April, and yeah, it's a long year overall. However, no contender wants to start season 0-3 if they genuinely believe they are a contender. Therefore, I give them the edge here, enough to where I will play a unit on the moneyline price of +108 at FanDuel.

Falter isn't great, and we'll give up runs, but the Phillies also have edges over bat-finding Perez. We'll talk a little more about that soon, though.

I like the situational aspect here as much as anything. Over the last two seasons, Philly has won just over 49% of its games after its loss — a number that places them in the upper half of the league in such categories. In addition, they've won 47.8% of games as an underdog in that timeframe, a rate that is fourth-best in baseball. We now have a situation where the Phillies are coming off back-to-back losses, and are the underdogs for the second time this season.

Forget the pitching matchup (where I suspect the Phillies have a slight edge), conventional trends suggest winning here tilts heavily in one direction. I'll follow those trends.

Phillies vs Rangers Over/Under analysis

Gotta like runs here. Both of these pitchers have their issues.

We've talked about Falter a reasonable amount, but Perez isn't precisely a Cy Young candidate (even though the market is higher on him than me). Last season, Perez had a whiff rate that sat in the bottom 10% of baseball. Consequently, he gave up a ton of hits because he can't avoid contact. Generally, those hits are softer, but as a left-handed pitcher who is ground-ball reliant, he stands to suffer from the new shift rules a ton.

The Phillies should have decent success against him with the added motivation of yesterday's drumming. I also like Falter to give up his fair share of scores for the reasons above. I'd also consider the fun "Yes Run in the First Inning" prop here, as the market-wide plus-money prices I'm seeing are appealing.

Phillies vs Rangers game info

Phillies vs Rangers betting preview

Starting pitchers

Bailey Falter (0-0, 0.00 ERA): The Bat X has projected an ERA that eclipses 4.00 this season for Falter, and that feels right. A season ago, he kept that number just under 4.00, but a WHIP of 1.21 indicates he was fortunate to do that. Falter's command is good, but he finds the bat entirely too much, or at least he should be expected to based on the quality of his pitches. Last season, his xBA and xSLG sat near the bottom of the league.

Martin Perez (0-0, 0.00 ERA): Perez posted some great numbers a season ago that included an xFIP of 3.80. I wonder if he was a bit lucky, though. His previously mentioned whiff rate issues are a cause for concern against the best-hitting teams, and he'll struggle with some of the new rules. With that said, the numbers are the numbers, and they are impressive. Perez's hard hit rate was reasonable, and his barrel rate was elite, rarely giving up hard contact with a rate in the Top 5% among all major league pitchers.

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Marcus Semien has recorded three runs in just two games to open the season. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Rangers

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