The surging Philadelphia Phillies have taken care of business against the Tampa Bay Rays this week, and they’ll go for the series sweep tonight.
Philadelphia knocked Shane Baz out of yesterday’s matchup in the fourth inning on the way to a 7-0 win, improving to 8-2 in its last 10 games, but my Phillies vs. Rays predictions put a bigger spotlight on the sub-par Tampa Bay offense and signal a low-scoring scrap.
Check out my top MLB picks for this Thursday, May 8 contest, as the visitors try to inch closer to the top spot in the NL East.
Phillies vs Rays prediction
My Phillies vs Rays best bet: Under 8.5 (+105 at Caesars)
Philadelphia Phillies left-hander Jesus Luzardo will take the hill against a Tampa Bay Rays team that have been held to two runs or fewer in five of their past eight contests.
Luzardo is off to a 3-0 start this season, boasting a 1.94 ERA and 1.18 WHIP, and I’m buying into that scorching form by backing the Under on the 8.5-run total.
In many ways, though, this pick is more about the Rays than Luzardo. With underwhelming numbers up and down the order, the Under is 7-3 in Tampa Bay’s last 10 games, and 20-14 overall this year.
The hosts rank 23rd in the majors in runs scored per game this season (3.75) — and that’s a carryover from 2024, where only the Chicago White Sox averaged fewer runs.
Considering some of the Phillies’ recent fireworks at the plate, including 31 runs in their past four games, it’s somewhat surprising that the visitors have cashed the Under in four of their last six contests.
But that’s a trend to monitor, and Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and the other key Philadelphia bats will be tested here, with Rays starter Ryan Pepiot only allowing three runs across his last two outings.
Plus, there’s a bit of a bit of mystery with Pepiot, as Max Kepler is the only Philadelphia hitter who’s faced the righty previously. It’s also worth noting that the Rays’ bullpen has answered the call this season, entering this contest with a 3.16 ERA.
The Under has been a winning ticket in four of the last six meetings between these teams, and that’s where I’m looking tonight.
Phillies vs Rays same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 8.5
Jesus Luzardo Over 5.5 strikeouts
Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 total bases
I’m doubling down on a low-scoring scrap by taking the Over on Luzardo strikeouts. He sits just outside the Top 15 in strikeouts this year, and he’s had no problem locating the strike zone, generating 6+ Ks in five of his seven starts in 2025.
Even in a rockier outing on Friday against the Arizona Diamondbacks, where he allowed nine hits, Luzardo still got through 5 1/3 innings and racked up six strikeouts. In his first season in Philadelphia, the lefty has already shown the willingness to go on the attack, making this prop even more attractive.
If anyone is going to crack the code for Tampa Bay, it’s Yandy Diaz. He’s got a 5-for-10 record against Luzardo, with three doubles, and he delivered one of the Rays’ two hits in last night’s feeble offensive effort.
Diaz seems to have shaken off a sluggish start to 2025, dragging his batting average up to .257 and posting six hits already this month. All five of his home runs this year have come at George M. Steinbrenner Field, and I like the price for Over 1.5 bases tonight.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Phillies vs Rays odds
Phillies vs Rays live odds
Phillies vs Rays opening odds
- Moneyline: Philadelphia -130 | Tampa Bay +110
- Run line: Philadelphia -1.5 (+130) | Tampa Bay +1.5 (-155)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110)
Phillies vs Rays trend
The Phillies have won eight in a row against the Rays, with four of those wins by a margin of 3+ runs. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Rays.
How to watch Phillies vs Rays and game info
| Location | George M. Steinbrenner Field, Tampa, FL |
| Date | Thursday, 5-8-2025 |
| First pitch | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBCSP, FDSNSUN |
| Phillies starting pitcher | Jesus Luzardo (3-0, 1.94 ERA) |
| Rays starting pitcher | Ryan Pepiot (2-4, 4.23 ERA) |
Phillies vs Rays latest injuries
Phillies vs Rays weather
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