The Pittsburgh Pirates and Milwaukee Brewers have split the first two of their three-game set that wraps up Thursday at American Family Field.
Pittsburgh sends All-Star rookie Paul Skenes to the hill, with Milwaukee countering with recently-acquired righty Aaron Civale. The Brew Crew can win their 10th consecutive home series with a Thursday victory, but it’s a tall task with Skenes living up to the hype and sporting a tidy 2.12 ERA and 11.83 strikeouts per nine innings.
Here are our free Pirates vs. Brewers predictions and MLB picks for the series finale on July 11.
Pirates vs Brewers prediction
My best bet
Aaron Civale Under 5.5 strikeouts (+115 at FanDuel)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
The elephant in the room is the Pittsburgh Pirates striking out the fifth-most in baseball (24.7 K%) and sporting a nearly identical 24.6% mark against right-handed hurlers. Milwaukee Brewers starter Aaron Civale just hasn’t consistently shown off the swing-and-miss mix this season. And, when he has lately, he’s been hit hard in two of three starts.
Civale fanned eight Los Angeles Dodgers in his Milwaukee debut on Friday, but he allowed three homers and threw 102 pitches across just five frames. It was only the third time in his past nine starts he struck out six or more batters, and the results were mixed in the prior two with the Baltimore Orioles teeing him up for four earned runs in five innings June 7 before he kept a then-struggling Chicago Cubs lineup in check June 12. He's also only struck out six or more in four of his past 14 trips to the bump.
The real problem is that his pitch values are down across the board, in addition to his walk rate climbing, ground-ball rate dropping, and FIP soaring over last year’s marks, per FanGraphs. Civale is also generating fewer swinging strikes, and batters are swinging at fewer pitches outside the strike zone while also making contact with more pitches inside the zone. His barrel percentage, launch angle, and home run to fly ball ratio are also all up.
Additionally, I value the heavily-worked Milwaukee bullpen being well rested after starters Colin Rea and Tobias Myers combined for 13 of 18 innings to start this series, and the Brewers also having an off day on Monday.
This is just Civale’s second start for the Brew Crew, and he has the potential to pitch a lot of innings in the second half for an injury-depleted rotation. I don’t anticipate manager Pat Murphy leaning on him to pitch too deep into Thursday’s game unless he’s absolutely dealing, and as highlighted, the gems have been few and far between for the righty in 2024.
Pirates vs Brewers same-game parlay (SGP)
Aaron Civale Under 5.5 strikeouts
Brewers moneyline
There’s been early movement to the Brewers' side of the moneyline, and I think it’s warranted given how poor the Pirates have hit against right-handed pitchers. Pittsburgh ranks 28th in wOBA (.292) and 27th in wRC+ (86), while the Brewers respectively rank sixth (.326) and seventh (111). Plus, as discussed, Milwaukee is tough to top at home with an active 23-7 record at American Family Field.
Even with Pittsburgh phenom Paul Skenes starting, the market has already shown the opening odds for the Pirates were too short, and we’re also grabbing a long +425 bet365 price. This same-game parlay is trading as short as +310 through DraftKings. The difference in the two numbers is a positive expected value of 28% attached to the +425 bet365 odds.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Pirates vs Brewers odds
Pirates vs Brewers live odds
Pirates vs Brewers opening odds
- Run line: Pittsburgh -1.5 | Milwaukee +1.5
- Moneyline: Pittsburgh -133 | Milwaukee +122
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Pirates vs Brewers spread and Over/Under analysis
- As noted, there has been movement to the Milwaukee side of this moneyline, and Pinnacle has moved from an opening Brewers +122 to +109 as of Thursday morning.
- There’s also been early movement in the total, with both Pinnacle and bet365 taking action on the Under.
- Pinnacle opened at 8 (+101/-114) and has dropped to 7.5, while bet365 has only made a minor five cent adjustment to the Under 8 odds.
Pirates vs Brewers trend
Civale has recorded five strikeouts or fewer in 10 of his past 14 starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Pirates vs. Brewers
Pirates vs Brewers game info
| Location: | American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date: | Thursday, 7-11-2024 |
| First pitch: | 2:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SNP, BSWI |
| Pirates starting pitcher: | Paul Skenes (5-0, 2.12 ERA) |
| Brewers starting pitcher: | Aaron Civale (2-6, 5.19 ERA) |
Pirates vs Brewers latest injuries
Pirates vs Brewers weather
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