It’s a lighter day of action on the diamond with seven games on the baseball betting board but that doesn’t mean there isn’t plenty of value to be found in the MLB player prop markets.
Today, I highlight a pair of outs-recorded props, one Over and one Under as Keaton Winn takes the ball against the Colorado Rockies and Reid Detmers takes on the Kansas City Royals.
Here are my MLB picks for Thursday, May 9.
MLB props for May 9
- Keaton Winn Over 15.5 outs (+115 at bet365)
- Juan Soto Over 0.5 RBI (+165 at bet365)
- Reid Detmers Under 17.5 outs (+120 at DraftKings)
Picks made on 5-9 at 1:30 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
Best MLB bonuses
All Users
Early MLB ML payout
If your team goes up by 2+! Claim Now
See our DraftKings sportsbook review
All Users
Instant payout for MLB moneylines
If your team goes up by 5+! Claim Now
See our bet365 sportsbook review
Eligible USA locations only. Also, see our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2024.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Best MLB bets today
Prop bet #1: Keaton wins
Rookie San Francisco Giants starter Keaton Winn was in a groove with three consecutive quality starts, surrendering just three runs on 11 hits over 18 innings of work. Then, in his latest start, he got ambushed by the Philadelphia Phillies.
The Phils tagged Winn for five runs on four hits and two walks in just two-thirds of an inning. However, that rough outing is giving us a little value when it comes to his outs-recorded prop, and I’m betting the Colorado Rockies won’t present him with the same problems.
Run production has been a problem for the 8-28 Rockies this season. Only the St. Louis Cardinals have plated fewer runs and right-handed pitchers have been particularly problematic for the Rox.
The Rockies rank 23rd in OPS, and dead last in wRC+ when facing righties this season. They are also getting punched out a lot. Their K-rate of 27.9% vs. right-handers is the third highest in baseball.
The Rockies should have plenty of issues with Winn’s high-velocity fastball and hard splitter, which he uses to get a ton of ground balls. Colorado has the sixth-highest ground ball rate in baseball. Those ground balls allow Winn to be efficient. His outs prop is sitting at 15.5 for this one, he’s gone Over this number in four of his seven starts and three of his last four.
Covers' MLB Prop Projections have Winn pegged for 16 outs. At +115, there is value in him to bounce back in this matchup and cash another Over in this market. Besides, fading the Rockies always feels like a smart idea.
Keaton Winn prop: Over 15.5 outs (+115 at bet365)
Prop bet #2: Patience is a virtue
Ronel Blanco has been one of the best stories in baseball this season. The 28-year-old opened the year with a no-hitter and has been the Houston Astros' only reliable starter ever since. But he will be getting arguably his toughest test when he takes the mound at Yankee Stadium to face Juan Soto, Aaron Judge, and the rest of the Bronx Bombers.
Blanco’s numbers are impressive. The right-hander owns a 2.09 ERA and 1.00 WHIP through six starts. But some things are going on that could get him in trouble against a lineup like the New York Yankees.
For starters, Blanco is walking too many guys. His 10.5% walk rate is in the 30th percentile, and no one has taken advantage of those bonus base runners. He also doesn’t have swing-and-miss stuff. His best pitch is his changeup while his K-rate and chase rate rank in the 58th and 41st percentile, respectively.
That reads to me that a hitter with patience can succeed against Blanco and no one has more patience than Soto.
The Yankees slugger is having a bonkers start to the season. Soto is hitting .338 with a 1.023 OPS, nine home runs, and 33 RBIs. Everything he is doing stats-wise is in the Top 5% of the league and it’s no surprise he’s the favorite to win American League MVP.
Soto has an RBI in nearly half of his games this season. So, getting him to drive another one in at this price, even against a guy like Blanco, is a solid value.
Juan Soto prop: Over 0.5 RBIs (+165 at bet365)
Prop bet #3: Detmers isn't dialed in
No Mike Trout means the Los Angeles Angels look less holy by the day. The Angels enter with a 14-23 record and will be in tough as they open a four-game series with the upstart Kansas City Royals.
The Angels' biggest problem has been pitching. The only American League teams that have allowed more runs this season are the Chicago White Sox and the Houston Astros.
For a while, starter Reid Detmers did his best to combat this. The left-hander gave up just three earned runs over his first four starts while striking out 30 across 22 2/3 innings. Unfortunately, things have shifted for the 24-year-old.
Detmers has surrendered 16 earned runs on 20 hits in 17 2/3 innings over his last three starts and he goes against a pesky Royals lineup led by Bobby Witt Jr.
KC doesn’t love facing lefties, but they do many little things that can bother a pitcher. Over the last two weeks, they rank 10th in batting average, 12th in on-base percentage, and have the fourth-lowest strikeout rate. Say it with me, “they get on base.”
Meanwhile, Detmers has high strikeout and walk rates. Combine all these things and the Angels lefty could build up his pitch count quickly and has me looking at his outs-recorded prop. It’s on the board at 17.5. He’s stayed Under that number in four of his seven starts and our Covers Prop Projections have Detmers at 16.3 outs for this matchup. We’re getting an extra out at nice plus money here.
Reid Detmers prop: Under 17.5 outs recorded (+120 at DraftKings)
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
