It's Friday, and a great weekend of MLB picks loom!
We have searched for the best prop value in the market. As always, try to stay within the recommended pricing as much as possible.
Here are my free MLB player props for March 4.
Best MLB player props today
Chisholm Jr. to record an RBI (+152 at Caesars)
Soto o1.5 total bases (+126 at Caesars)
De La Cruz o0.5 runs (+133 at Caesars)
MLB props for April 4
Jazz Chisholm Jr. to record an RBI (+152 at Caesars)
Jazz Chisholm Jr. has seen the ball well, but more than that, this has to do with the pitcher that the New York Yankees are set to face.
Pittsburgh Pirates starter Mitch Keller struggles with getting barrelled, making it a tough matchup against the league’s hardest-hitting lineup. The right-hander also relies on a heavy fastball approach, and there's not a better team in the majors over the last few years against the heater.
Chisholm's value here is a product of his placement in the lineup. Having the luxury of batting behind Aaron Judge makes this +130 number a must-play.
Juan Soto Over 1.5 total bases (+126 at Caesars)
Juan Soto has historically owned Kevin Gausman, who takes the mound for the Toronto Blue Jays today. In 15 at-bats, the New York Mets slugger boasts 5 RBI, a homer, and an OPS of 1.60. I'll follow that trend at this price point.
The pitch mix helps as well, as Gausman has shown a regular willingness to challenge the best hitters in the sport with balls in the zone. With that comes his fastball getting hit hard, as indicated by a barrel rate in the bottom 5 percentile of baseball last season.
Expect Soto to mash in the Mets' home opener.
Elly De La Cruz Over 0.5 runs (+133 at Caesars)
Frankly, I'm impressed by the Cincinnati Reds' most recent accomplishment. With a 1-0 loss to the Milwaukee Brewers last night, Cincy became the second team in the live-ball era to lose three consecutive games by a 1-0 scoreline. Tonight, that nightmare ends.
Elly De La Cruz has many paths to score a run that make this prop appealing. Tyler Alexander takes the mound for the Brewers and hasn't inspired much confidence. The 30-year-old lefty last went two innings against the New York Yankees, surrendering a hard-hit rate of nearly 60%.
It's even more concerning after career lows in nearly every metric last season. Who could be a better fit amongst the Reds to take advantage of a lousy barrel rate and high hard-hit rate than Elly?
Aiding our cause is Alexander's heavy fastball approach. It's certainly no secret that this is the young star's preferred pitch. It also helps that Alexander has an 83% successful stolen base rating against him in the past two seasons.
Cruz has not seen Alexander in his career, but he certainly profiles well, and, at some point, there's an avalanche of offense coming for the Red Legs. I project the fair price on this prop to be around +115.
Not intended for use in MA.
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