It’s a new week of big league action and with 11 games on the board the bases are juiced when it comes to MLB player props and I’m ready to drive home some winners for you guys.
Today I look at a total bases prop in Pittsburgh, a rough night at the dish for Dansby Swanson, and Hunter Greene's quest to rack up the punchouts..
Check out my MLB picks for Monday, April 7.
Best MLB player props today
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Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 Total Bases (+112 at Caesars) -
Dansby Swanson Under 0.5 Hits (+112 at Caesars) -
Hunter Greene Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-154 at Caesars)
MLB props for April 7
Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 Total Bases (+112 at Caesars)
We’ve got a National League Central showdown when the Pittsburgh Pirates play host to the St. Louis Cardinals on Monday night.
The Cardinals' pitching staff has been beat up early on this season, with the Boston Red Sox most recently putting up an eye-popping 36 runs in three games over the weekend. I don’t expect those floodgates to suddenly close in this one.
Matthew Liberatore gets the ball for the Cards tonight. The left-hander spent the majority of 2024 coming out of the bullpen for St. Louis, pitching to a 4.20 expected ER but earned a spot in the rotation coming out of Spring Training this year.
Liberatore was solid, if unspectacular, in his first start of the season, allowing three runs on six hits over six innings of work against the Los Angeles Angels. But there are some Pirates players happy to see him on the mound today.
One of those is Bryan Reynolds. The Buccos' outfielder is having a tough start to the season with the bat, hitting .182 with a .529 OPS. But Reynolds is a much better hitter than that, and as has hinted, he has solid numbers against Liberatore.
Reynolds has four hits, including a double and a dinger, in nine career plate appearances vs. the Cardinals’ lefty. That’s good for a .294 expected batting average and a .637 expected slugging.
Reynolds has a total bases prop set at 1.5 for tonight’s matchup. Not only does he have good numbers against Liberatore, but he’s gone Over this number five times in his last eight games, despite his slump.
Dansby Swanson Under 0.5 Hits (+112 at Caesars)
The Texas Rangers are off to a hot start in 2025, coming into this interleague series with the Chicago Cubs with an impressive 8-2 record.
Veteran starting pitcher Nathan Eovaldi has been a big part of that. The 35-year-old looks as good as he’s ever been through two starts this season.
Eovaldi began the year by limiting what now looks like a very dangerous Boston Red Sox lineup to two runs on three hits while striking out nine over six innings on Opening Day. He followed that up with an absolute gem against the Cincinnati Reds. A complete-game shutout where he gave up just four hits and stuck out eight.
Former Astros slugger Kyle Tucker was probably happy to get away from Eovaldi, but he’s not the only Cubs hitter likely not looking forward to this matchup, including shortstop Dansby Swanson.
The Cubbies shortstop is definitely in a bit of a slump. He is hitting just .217 for the season and has just two hits and five strikeouts over his last five games. Swanson is also 0-for-7 seven with two Ks in his career vs. Eovaldi. So, the red-hot version of the Rangers right-hander is probably the last guy he wants to see.
Swanson has gone hitless in three of his last four games and at plus money, he makes the shortlist for my MLB picks.
Hunter Greene Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-154 at Caesars)
It looks like we are unlocking the final form of Cincinnati Reds' starter, Hunter Greene. The Reds’ fireballer is racking up the strikeouts to start the season, and I like that to continue in tonight’s matchup with the San Francisco Giants.
The Giants come into this game riding the high of a seven-game winning streak, but if there’s anyone who can bring them back to Earth, it’s Greene.
The Reds’ right-hander is dealing to start the season. He began the year against this same Giants lineup, limiting them to two runs on three hits while striking out eight over five innings of work. Greene followed that up with seven innings of one-run, three-hit ball with eight more Ks against the Texas Rangers.
Despite the winning streak, the Giants aren’t too happy to see Greene again so soon. Current San Francisco hitters have a .143 expected batting average, a .300 expected slugging, and an ugly 42% K-rate in 69 combined plate appearances vs. Greene.
Greene’s strikeout total is set at 6.5. Even though it's a juiced Over play there looks to still be a little value here.
Not intended for use in MA.
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