There are only five games on today's slate, which means there are fewer options to pick from when looking to bet on MLB player props. Thankfully, we’ve identified three that present solid value from your limited options.
Here are my three favorite props for Thursday, April 3.
Best MLB player props today
Lux Over 0.5 H+R+RBI (-120 at bet365)
Alvarez Over 1.5 TB (+120 at bet365)
Cabrera Over 0.5 Ks (-105 at bet365)
MLB props for April 3
Gavin Lux Over 0.5 hits + runs + RBI (-120 at bet365)
Cincinnati Reds infielder Gavin Lux is only hitting .211, but he’s gotten a hit in four of his six games this year. More importantly, he’s been on the end of a bit of bad luck.
He’s posted an xBA of .304 and has seen an uptick in his average exit velocity, with a 92.9 mph mark on 15 balls put into play. He’s also cut back a bit on his strikeout rate.
Tonight gives him a chance to punish a pitcher coming off a rotten start. Milwaukee Brewers left-hander Nestor Cortes gave up a home run on each of his first three pitches against the Yankees last week and five before the end of the first inning.
In two innings of work, Cortes allowed six hits and eight earned runs while issuing five walks. His four-seam fastball was only clocking in at 90.6 mph, and there was a noticeable dip in velocity on his cutter as well.
American Family Field is a favorable spot for hitters, and while Cortes probably won’t be giving up home runs the way he did a week ago, I don’t think he’s going to fare well here. All four of Lux’s hits have come off fastballs, and he’ll get at least one hit off a pitcher whose fastball simply isn’t working right now.
Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 total bases (+120 at bet365)
It’s been a rough start to the season for Yordan Alvarez, but Wednesday might have been the kickstart he needed. The Houston Astros slugger went 2-for-4 with a pair of runs driven in while walking once in five plate appearances.
He’s gone hitless in four of his six games, but he has an opportunity to build on yesterday’s outing. That’s because he will be facing Joe Ryan.
The Minnesota Twins pitcher has gone up against Alvarez 14 times, and three have resulted in Houston's DH jogging around the bags. Alvarez has four hits in 12 ABs, with an xSLG of .881 and an average exit velocity of 95.7 mph.
Ryan pitched well in his first outing, giving up just one run in five IP while striking out five. But he also got fairly lucky, posting an xERA of 4.06 and having multiple hard-hit balls go right to defenders.
He also was fortunate not to give up a home run in the third inning to Alec Burleson or when Brendan Donovan hit a pitch 401 feet in the fifth. Lefties also hurt him in that game, accounting for three of the hits he surrendered. He won’t get that lucky here, and my MLB picks like Alvarez to hurt him once again.
Oswaldo Cabrera Over 0.5 hitter strikeouts (-105 at bet365)
It’s not often you see this low of a price for a single strikeout, but it’s tremendous value here, especially when you consider the price for Oswaldo Cabrera's Under 0.5 hits is sitting at -150.
By that logic, he’s gotta get out somehow. And given he’s facing Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander Merrill Kelly, against whom he’s gone 0-for-5 against lifetime, it makes perfect sense.
Kelly is coming off a start in which he only struck out one batter in 5 1/3 innings, but he got numerous swings and misses with both his slider and changeup. He relies on his sinker to get ground-ball outs but faces a lineup that looks to put the ball into the air.
Cabrera is a switch-hitter who typically performs better against LHP. So far this season, he’s gotten just one hit in nine ABs vs. righties while striking out twice. Overall, he’s struck out three times in 12 ABs, including twice yesterday.
Kelly’s set him down on strikes in two of their five meetings, including their first showdown last May. With a whiff rate so far this season of 34.8% and a reduced zone contact rate, I’ll back Cabrera to go down on strikes.
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