Welcome to the second iteration of the MLB Power Rankings. It's been another exciting week of baseball as we reach the final week before the All-Star break. We only saw one team move more than two spots since last week's edition, and the Top 5 remained the same. However, we saw some teams make significant jumps with their radius score. More on that in a moment, but first, a recap of the week that was.
The Toronto Blue Jays have become a significant story in the last week for all the wrong reasons. They only dropped one spot in these rankings, mainly because their win expectancy has propped them up, but it's become harder to believe in their position as the third-best team in the AL East. The Jays have won just two of their last eight games and were swept by the surging Seattle Mariners over the weekend. Even more deflating for Toronto fans is they either led or were tied in the 6th inning or later in three of those four games.
It was an exciting rivalry renewal in Boston when the Red Sox met the Yankees. However, after the dust had settled, the teams ended with a series split. Each game of the set went Over the total and featured multiple runs scored in the seventh inning or later. Boston is an exciting team in the MLB futures market with +3,000 World Series odds at DraftKings. However, we don't see much value in them at that price. We give them roughly a 2.7 probability of winning the World Series and that price suggests closer to 3% odds.
Speaking of value, let's talking about the Orioles. Last week, I suggested that it wasn't crazy to think about Baltimore for the playoffs. Since then, they've continued to win and have now won nine straight, matching their longest winning streak in a single season since 1999. A few days after writing, I grabbed them to make the playoffs at +4,000 at DraftKings. Fast forward to now, and they are down to +1,300. If you're buying in on the O's now, you're buying in on the high point of the market but guess what? Our projections still see the value. We give the Os a 13% chance to make the postseason and they are currently priced at around 7%.
After finishing tied for the worst record last season, the Orioles have won 9 straight.
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) July 13, 2022
They are the 4th team since 1900 to win 9 consecutive games the season after finishing with the worst record in MLB.
Baltimore joins 1902 Browns, 1993 Dodgers and 2001 Cubs. pic.twitter.com/qO8zfcAXnA
As such, they've leapfrogged such preseason playoff hopefuls as the Chicago White Sox and Los Angeles Angels in our rankings. This comes a year after the Orioles finished with the worst record in baseball, earning the top pick in this weekend's draft, where MLB Draft betting odds have them pegged to select prep star — and son of former MLB outfielder Andruw Jones — Druw Jones.
Let's examine this week's MLB Power Rankings below:
MLB Power Rankings: Week of July 12
| Rank | Team (Radius) | Last Week's Rank | Record | World Series odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York Yankees (.700) | 1 | 61-26 | +400 |
| 2 | Los Angeles Dodgers (.666) | 2 | 56-30 | +400 |
| 3 | Houston Astros (.657) | 3 | 57-29 | +500 |
| 4 | Atlanta Braves (.611) | 4 | 53-36 | +850 |
| 5 | New York Mets (.602) | 5 | 54-36 | +750 |
| 6 | Minnesota Twins (.579) | 7 | 48-41 | +4,500 |
| 7 | Philadelphia Phillies (.597) | 6 | 46-42 | +3,500 |
| 8 | Boston Red Sox (.559) | 10 | 47-41 | +3,000 |
| 9 | San Diego Padres (.574) | 8 | 50-39 | +1,800 |
| 10 | Milwaukee Brewers (.552) | 9 | 49-39 | +1,700 |
| 11 | St. Louis Cardinals (.541) | 11 | 48-42 | +4,000 |
| 12 | San Francisco Giants (.537) | 13 | 44-42 | +5,000 |
| 13 | Toronto Blue Jays (.536) | 12 | 46-42 | +1,500 |
| 14 | Tampa Bay Rays (.532) | 14 | 47-40 | +3,000 |
| 15 | Seattle Mariners (.528) | 17 | 45-42 | +6,500 |
| 16 | Texas Rangers (.508) | 16 | 40-45 | +50,000 |
| 17 | Miami Marlins (.503) | 15 | 41-45 | +18,000 |
| 18 | Cleveland Guardians (.487) | 19 | 43-43 | +11,000 |
| 19 | Baltimore Orioles (.482) | 21 | 44-44 | +40,000 |
| 20 | Los Angeles Angels (.480) | 18 | 38-50 | +16,000 |
| 21 | Chicago White Sox (.475) | 20 | 42-45 | +3,500 |
| 22 | Arizona Diamondbacks (.454) | 22 | 39-49 | +200,000 |
| 23 | Chicago Cubs (.440) | 23 | 34-53 | +200,000 |
| 24 | Colorado Rockies (.432) | 24 | 39-49 | +200,000 |
| 25 | Cincinnati Reds (.409) | 26 | 33-54 | +200,000 |
| 26 | Detroit Tigers (.407) | 27 | 37-51 | +100,000 |
| 27 | Pittsburgh Pirates (.401) | 29 | 38-50 | +200,000 |
| 28 | Washington Nationals (.374) | 28 | 30-58 | +200,000 |
| 29 | Oakland A's (.360) | 30 | 30-59 | +200,000 |
| 30 | Kansas City Royals (.360) | 25 | 34-53 | +200,000 |
World Series odds via DraftKings.
Compare updated World Series futures before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Biggest Risers
Seattle Mariners (15)
Is any team more exciting than the Mariners right now? They have won eight straight and have one of the most electrifying players in the game in Julio Rodriguez. The 21-year-old was named to the AL All-Star roster after posting a .274/.335/480 slash line while ranking 20th in FanGraphs' Wins Above Replacement.
JULIO RODRIGUEZ DESTROYS THE BASEBALL AGAIN.
— Seattle Mariners ON Tap (@MarinersONtap) July 4, 2022
MARINERS HAVE A STAR ?? pic.twitter.com/WvQXnPkG69
In addition, J-Rod remains a constant threat on the base paths with 21 stolen bases on the season. Rodriguez appears to have the AL Rookie of the Year award locked up and is currently -280 to win the prize at FanDuel. As for the Mariners, the team is now solidly second in the AL West, 12.5 games behind the Houston Astros. After sweeping the Jays, they've made the race for the final Wild-Card spot a compelling one, trailing Toronto by just a half-game.
Boston Red Sox (8)
Technically, the Red Sox were the team that made the most significant positional jump, but the Minnesota Twins (6) made a more considerable radius jump.
For me, the Twins are one of the more undervalued teams in baseball right now, and my numbers back that up. Minnesota took two of three against the Chicago White Sox earlier in the week, and although the Twins followed it up by dropping a few games, my projections remain very high on them.
In addition, the Twins offer a healthy, well-roundedness that many teams can't provide. If not for some bullpen issues, they could lead this division by a landslide. Minnesota could become a serious contender if it can find some arm relief around the trade deadline.
Biggest Fallers
Los Angeles Angels (20)
The Angels fell two spots this week and seemingly could be on the verge of a firesale at the deadline. They were swept by the Orioles over the weekend, and there couldn't have been a single series this year that pitted teams headed in more opposite directions than that one. I'm struggling to find a more disappointing team in baseball than the Angels this season.
Since firing veteran manager Joe Maddon, the Angels have gone just 11-21. Regarding a betting angle, it seems like a slam dunk to bet the Over on opposing teams' pitcher strikeout totals. The Angels go down on strikes more frequently than any other team in the majors, averaging 9.6 a game. In addition to that, they've averaged a whopping 11.3 strikeouts in their last three games.
Chicago White Sox (21)
If the Angels aren't the most disappointing team in baseball, then the Chicago White Sox are. They have fallen just one spot off the previous week's mark but saw a pretty significant radius drop.
A team that came into the year with World Series aspirations is now five games below .500 and will be below .500 by the All-Star break. On a day-to-day basis, the White Sox continue to be overvalued by the betting market even with baseball's ninth worst run differential.
The White Sox said decided that tagging up is for chumps and ran themselves into a triple play pic.twitter.com/q7P6u6o2AA
— Jomboy Media (@JomboyMedia) July 5, 2022
According to our Covers MLB team money stats, the White Sox are the ninth least profitable team in baseball. A deeper look reveals they've been the second least profitable team in baseball over the last 30 days. That's a pretty big indication of how rough things have gotten lately.
Power Rankings methodology
Chris Hatfield's MLB Power Rankings are based heavily on the Pythagorean Theorem, pioneered by Bill James.
This process estimates the percentage of games a team should win and, therefore, where they fall in line in the MLB hierarchy. After that, he adds some secret sauce to develop a team's "radius," which includes a formula comprised of a team's collective expected ERA, run value, and wOBA, among other items.
This process not only attempts to show you how one formula views the landscape, but also which team has the best value to win the World Series vs. oddsmakers' expectations.
Through various sims, he finds the implied probability of one team achieving postseason success to help readers like yourself cash tickets. Just as importantly, Chris’ MLB Power Rankings are not a subjective list — and do not reflect odds between two teams in a given matchup.
