It’s a lighter day on the diamond with just seven MLB games on the betting board, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t plenty of value to be found in the MLB player props market.
Today, the Rays will try to match the MLB record for most consecutive wins to start the season, but what’s the best prop bet to go along with that attempt? Meanwhile, young Reds starter Nick Lodolo will keep racking up the Ks against the Phillies, and Paul Goldschmidt will keep raking against the Pirates.
Here are my best MLB player prop bets for Thursday, April 13.
MLB props for April 13
Picks made on 4/13/2023 at 12:10 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Best MLB bets today
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Prop bet #1: Springs has sprung
The Tampa Bay Rays story is pretty cool. Today, they will try to match the MLB record for the most wins to start a season at 13-0 when they take on the Boston Red Sox. And right off the bat, I think they do just that.
The Rays have gotten off to a 12-0 start this season because they are basically doing everything well. On offense, they are leading the MLB in scoring, OPS, and home runs, while barely striking out. Meanwhile, their pitching staff ranks first in ERA, opponent batting average, and opponent OPS.
But winning has come at a cost. Literally. Despite being 12-0, they are only up $607 on $100 wagers. Meaning they have basically been -200 favorites in every game. So, there must to be better ways to bet the Rays.
Today, that’s by backing Rays’ starter Jeffery Springs. The Tampa Bay left-hander has been dominant through two starts this season. Springs has yet to allow a run on just three hits while striking out 19 batters over 13 innings of work.
Now, Springs will stare across at a Red Sox lineup that has been mediocre so far this year. The team ranks 18th in OPS and 19th in strikeout rate when facing left-handed pitching.
Boston will counter Springs with Corey Kluber. The veteran right-hander has given up six earned runs on nine hits, including three dingers, over his first 8 1/3 innings of work this season.
Like I said, I think the Rays match that record today, and Springs earns a win in the process at a much more profitable +130.
Jeffery Springs Prop: To record a win (+130)
Prop bet #2: Gung Ho for Lodolo
The Philadelphia Phillies have been a weird team so far in 2023.
Obviously, they are struggling to start the year at 4-8. But it’s more than that. The Phillies rank fourth in batting average but just 20th in runs per game. They are also striking out a ton. Philly has the fifth-highest strikeout rate in the majors when it comes to facing right-handed pitchers this season, getting punched out 26.3% of the time.
They’ve also exploded for 15 runs against Sandy Alcantara and the Marlins, and put up seven in a matchup vs. Jacob deGrom. But they haven’t scored more than four runs in any other game this season, including the last time they faced Cincinnati Reds starter Nick Lodolo last Saturday.
Lodolo is having the breakout season the Reds were hoping for. He owns a 1.80 expected ERA and a .165 opponent expected batting average while ranking in the Top 4% in strikeout rate.
That includes shutting out the Phillies on just three hits while striking out 12 batters over seven innings. The left-hander has been dealing to start the season, racking up 21 punchouts over 12 innings. And I think he can have similar success tonight.
He’s had at least nine strikeouts in both of his starts. The Over 7.5 tonight at plus money looks like a solid play.
Nick Lodolo Prop: Over 7.5 strikeouts (+105)
Prop bet #3: Stay Goldy
The St. Louis Cardinals are another National League team that has gotten off to a slow start, but they head into a four-game set with the Pittsburgh Pirates, winners of two in a row. And someone who can’t be blamed for the slow start is, of course, Paul Goldschmidt.
The former MVP is hitting .364 with a 1.014 OPS, and enters this game on a five-game hitting streak, which includes him going 2-for-4 with two doubles in yesterday’s victory against the Colorado Rockies. I like Goldschmidt’s chances to keep that up in tonight’s matchup against the Pirates.
The Buccos hand the ball to Vince Velasquez, and the right-hander hander has struggled with his new team. Velasquez has been tagged for eight runs on 11 hits while striking out just four batters compared to five walks in 7 1/3 innings of work over two starts.
And as is the case with a lot of pitchers, Goldschmidt has been a tough out for Velasquez. Goldschmidt has gone 5-for-14 (.357) with a home run and has only struck out once in his career against Velasquez.
Goldschmidt has gone Over 1.5 total bases seven times in his 12 games played this season. He should get there tonight against Velasquez.
Paul Goldschmidt Prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+100)
