A new week of MLB action begins with a bases-loaded schedule featuring 26 teams taking the field. There will be no shortage of value to be found among the MLB player prop odds.
Today, I highlight a trio of total bases props involving some of the biggest names in MLB, all of which are being offered at plus money. Jose Ramirez, Nolan Arenado, and Ronald Acuna all enter Monday’s action swinging hot sticks, and I'm betting that doesn't change.
Here are my best MLB player prop picks for Monday, April 17.
MLB props for April 17
- Ramirez Over 1.5 total bases (no odds)
- Arenado Over 1.5 total bases (no odds)
- Acuna Over 1.5 total bases (no odds)
Picks made on 4/17/2023 at 2:38 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Prop bet #1: Raking Ramirez
The suddenly streaking Detroit Tigers welcome the 9-7 Cleveland Guardians to town as they open a three-game set at Comerica Park on Monday. The Tigers have won three straight and now hand the ball to Matt Boyd.
However, Boyd will be unhappy to look across and see Jose Ramirez digging into the box. The Guardians’ All-Star third baseman is also off to another solid start in 2023 while hitting for a .290 average with a .868 OPS, and he's enjoyed plenty of success against Boyd.
Ramirez is 11-38 (.289), with five extra-base hits and three home runs when facing off against Boyd. That’s good for a .605 slugging percentage. He’s also struck out just four times over 42 plate appearances.
Boyd’s results have been a little more mixed over his first two starts. The left-hander has given up four earned runs on seven hits across nine innings. He's also recorded as many walks as strikeouts (seven).
Ramirez is a career .284 hitter when facing lefties. Combine that with Boyd struggling through command issues, and the Guardians’ best hitter is set up well to enjoy a good day at the dish.
Jose Ramirez Prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+125)
Prop bet #2: Crushing Kelly
Oh, look. Nolan Arenado is producing another All-Star-caliber start to a season. The St. Louis Cardinals third baseman continues to be one of the league's best all-around players, and he gets a great matchup when he taking on Merrill Kelly and the Arizona Diamondbacks on Monday.
Arenado has started the season hitting .333 with a .853 OPS while notching two dingers and 13 RBIs. He's bumped that up to .360 and .989 with three extra-base hits over the Cardinals' last six games, and Arenado will get a chance to feast in this matchup against Kelly.
The third baseman has always done a great job of reading the ball out of Kelly’s hand. Arenado has collected four hits over 10 career at-bats against Kelly, including a double and a home run. That's good for a .695 expected slugging percentage.
Additionally, even though Kelly has posted a solid 2.93 ERA, he’s been a bit lucky. The right-hander has produced a FIP nearly two runs higher at 4.76, an expected ERA of 6.85, and an expected batting average of .273 to opponents.
Expect that luck to run out against a talented hitter like Arenado. The Over on his total bases prop is more than worth a wager at plus money.
Nolan Arenado Prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+110)
Prop bet #3: Acuna will make Weathers Stormy
Move over Tampa Bay. There’s a new longest-winning streak in town, and it belongs to the Atlanta Braves. They've notched six straight victories, and Atlanta now opens a three-game set on the road against the San Diego Padres.
Ronald Acuna Jr. has been powering the team during that run. The Braves’ All-Star outfielder once again looks like the guy who was constantly smashing baseballs prior to his knee injury in 2021.
Acuna is tearing the cover off the ball so far this season, hitting .373 with a 1.022 OPS through 16 games. His advanced stats are pretty too. He's in the 90th percentile or above in average exit velocity, max exit velocity, hard-hit percentage, expected batting average, and expected slugging percentage.
He’s been even hotter lately. Acuna is hitting .500 with a 1.254 OPS over his last seven games. The 25-year-old has logged five multi-hit games and three extra-base hits over that span, too.
Acuna has never faced Padres starter Ryan Weathers. The young left-hander has pitched well, but he hasn’t opposed anything like this Braves lineup. Weathers also isn’t a big strikeout guy, punching out just five batters in 10 innings of work while recording a .246 expected opponent's batting average.
That will lead to lots of balls in play, which favors the smoking-hot Acuna. Take him to go Over his total bases prop at even money.
Ronald Acuna Jr. Prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+100)
