Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Shohei Flashes Strikeout Stuff in KC

It’s a bases-loaded Friday night on the diamond with all 30 teams in action. That means a cornucopia of baseball betting options in the MLB player prop market. So, let’s kick off the weekend with some winners.

Tonight, we looking at a baseball-hitting machine known as Luis Arraez to break out of his “slump” vs. the Guardians. Marcus Semien will keep tearing the cover off the ball vs. the A’s, and it’s Sho-time in the Midwest, as Ohtani takes the ball against the Royals.

Here are my best MLB player prop picks for Friday, April 21.

MLB props for April 21

• Arraez Over 1.5 hits
• Semien Over 1.5 total bases
• Ohtani Over 7.5 strikeouts

Picks made on 4/21/2023 at 12:45 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Prop bet #1: Back in business

There aren’t many players out there where a 5-for-18 stretch could be considered a slump, but that’s just how locked in Luis Arraez has been. The Miami Marlins second baseman isn’t so much a baseball player, as a robot built in a lab whose lone purpose is hitting baseballs.

This 5-18 stretch has dropped Arraez’s batting average to .438 for the season heading into tonight’s matchup with the Cleveland Guardians (how crazy is that?), but this “slump” may be short-lived. 

Arraez will be a tough matchup for Guardians’ starter Zach Plesac. The 28-year-old right-hander doesn’t strike out a lot of hitters (not that Arraez strikes out, like ever) and pitches to contact. Plesac ranks in the Bottom 10% in both average exit velocity and strikeout rate. That has resulted in a 4.27 expected ERA and a .277 opponent expected batting average. 

Arraez has also been putting up ridiculous numbers against right-handed pitchers, hitting for a .469 average and a 1.180 OPS. Simply put, getting Arraez out will be a problem for Plesac.

The Marlins' hit machine already has nine multi-hit games in his 16 games this season. At +190, he’s more than worth a wager to get No. 10 tonight.

Luis Arraez Prop: Over 1.5 hits (+190)

Prop bet #2: Marcus makes his mark

The Texans Rangers’ 2023 campaign has gotten off to a great start and they’ll be able to build off that start when they open a series against the depressingly bad, and now apparently Las Vegas-bound Oakland Athletics. 

It looks like the Rangers finally have some pitching to support their lineup but make no mistake, this is still a dangerous offensive lineup that ranks second in MLB in runs per game. And right at the top of that lineup is the red-hot Marcus Semien. 

The Rangers’ second baseman is tearing the cover off the ball. Semien has 11 hits in his last 23 at-bats, including a double and three dingers over the last six games. That’s good for a .478 batting average and a 1.484 OPS. 

Semien will have a great chance to stay hot when he digs in tonight against A’s starter JP Sears. The 27-year-old has been one of the A’s better starters, which isn’t necessarily a good thing. The left-hander is a control pitcher who uses a large array of pitches and tries to induce soft contact by mixing his pitches.

Unfortunately, when he does get hit, he gets hit hard. Sears has pitched to a 5.55 expected ERA through three starts this season and ranks in the Bottom 10% in opponent expected slugging percentage and barrel rate.

A perfect example is that Semien is 1-6 in his career vs. Sears, with the one hit of course being a home run. And despite just the one hit, he has a crazy 1.105 expected slugging percentage in this matchup. With the way Semien is locked in right now, getting plus money on the Over 1.5 total bases looks like a great bet today.

Marcus Semien Prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+120)

Prop bet #3: It's Sho-time

Sho-time hits the Midwest on Friday night when Los Angeles Angels two-way star Shohei Ohtani takes the ball for the opener against the Kansas City Royals.

Ohtani is having another solid year at the plate, but it’s his performance on the mound that's been especially eye-popping. Ohtani has allowed just two earned runs on six hits while striking out 27 over his first 21 innings of work in 2023.

Ohtani’s start got pushed up this week after he had to be pulled after just two innings from his last start in Boston thanks to an extended rain delay. That’s a tough break for the Royals.

Kansas City has just four wins on the season thanks to some offensive numbers that are downright ugly. The Royals rank 29th in scoring at just 3.13 runs per game while ranking dead last in batting average and OPS. The Royals are also tied for the sixth-highest strikeout rate when facing right-handed pitching.

Ohtani ranks in the 90th percentile when it comes to K-rate and has struck out eight or more batters in two of his three full starts. He was also trending toward another high-strikeout performance against the Red Sox, striking out three in those two innings.

He also struck out a whopping 13 Royals in a June 22 meeting last season. I’m betting he racks up the Ks with ease tonight.

Shohei Ohtani Prop: Over 7.5 strikeouts (-102)

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