Happy Friday!
It's time to get after it on the diamond, as we're met with a beautiful buffet of games as we look to attack the best options in the MLB player prop market.
We've sifted through the MLB odds to catch a Hall of Fame pitcher at a low strikeout number, a speedy baserunner picking on a pitcher, and fading an unpredictable rookie southpaw.
Come along with us, and let's try to cash some of these free MLB picks in our best MLB props for Friday, April 7.
MLB props for April 7
Picks made on 4/7/2023 at 9:42 A.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Best MLB bets today
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Prop bet #1: Quick Witted
No pitcher taking the mound today gave up more steals — at a more successful clip — last season than Alex Cobb. Plus, only five players swiped more bases in 2022 than Bobby Witt Jr., who finished the season as just one of six total players with 30+ steals.
A match made in heaven, right?
We're getting one of the best base stealers in the league against a pitcher that does not do a great job of preventing SBs. Cobb is still adjusting to the new rules — which has led to an increase in steals through the first week of the season — and in his first outing, he allowed a stolen base to Anthony Volpe in just three innings of work.
Bobby Witt Jr. Prop: Over 0.5 stolen bases (+280)
Prop bet #2: Let's Get Sirious
The Tampa Bay Rays' undefeated start has undoubtedly been helped by their schedule, with six games against the lowly Tigers and Nationals, but amid that winning streak, though, something else has happened: Jose Siri recorded an RBI in five straight games... and he has a great chance to make it six in a row against the worst team in baseball today.
Siri has moved around in the lineup, but he's generally been around players having little trouble getting on base, and today the Rays will see Ken Waldichuk will take the mound for the A's, who posted an expected batting average of over .300 in his first start this season.
The rookie is extremely reliant on his fastball, and almost every player in the TB lineup has been hitting fastballs well to start the year. This is the best way on the board to take advantage of a hot team (and even hotter hitter) in an exploitable pitching matchup.
Through the first week of the season, Siri has a hard-hit rate in the Top-2 percent of the league. Considering he'll likely have a few ABs with RISP, so all he'll really need to do is put balls in play.
Jose Siri Prop: Over 0.5 RBIs (+265)
Prop bet #3: Desert Deja Vu
Clayton Kershaw's lone start so far this season came against the Diamondbacks, and he'll get them again tonight — this time in Arizona.
The historical numbers, however, favor us: Kershaw struck out nine Snakes last week and has topped 5.5 strikeouts in 67% of his career starts against Arizona. Furthermore, he's gone Over this number in seven of his previous 10 starts, dating back to last season.
This number should be closer to -200... it's not, so we'll take some of that value.
The reason Kershaw racked up so many Ks six days ago is that he got Arizona to chase his breaking balls, as nearly half his pitches were out of the zone. That is an impressive feat against a team with the second-lowest chase rate in baseball, and I support Kershaw in replicating this performance.
He's done it more often than not against the D-backs, and many of the same hitters have yet to show the ability to adjust against him.
Clayton Kershaw Prop: Over 5.5 strikeouts (-140)
