It’s a getaway day on the diamond, with over half of today’s 15 MLB games being matinee matchups. That means MLB player props to bet on all day long.
Today, I'm fading a pair of starting pitchers off to rocky starts this season. I'm also riding the hot hand at the plate in the Padres vs. Twins interleague affair.
I break down the MLB odds and bring you my best MLB player props for Wednesday, May 10.
MLB props for May 10
Picks made on 5/10/2023 at 4:15 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Prop bet #1: Lynn can't win
To put it nicely, things have not gone well for the Chicago White Sox to start the season, and Lance Lynn has been no exception. Can he figure things out tonight when he takes on the Kansas City Royals?
The Pale Hose right-hander has struggled to find his good stuff through his first seven starts of the season. Lynn is pitching to a 5.09 expected ERA, and is surrendering a .468 opponent expected slugging percentage so far this season. A big reason for that is that he’s had to battle his command.
Lynn has issued 15 walks in 39 1/3 innings pitched this season. That’s good for an 8.6% walk rate, which is the highest number for Lynn in that category since 2018 (10.9%). He has also handed out two or more free passes in five of his seven starts this season.
While Kansas City certainly isn’t known for its offensive prowess this season, they have been a little more patient at the dish recently. The Royals rank 10th in walk rate vs. right-handed pitching since the start of May.
Lynn just hasn’t looked like himself yet this season, and I’m betting he issues a couple more free passes here tonight.
Lance Lynn Prop: Over 1.5 walks (+100)
Prop bet #2: Kremer is crummy
It’s the rubber match between the Top 2 teams in the American League East standings when the Tampa Bay Rays take on the Baltimore Orioles at Camden Yards. The Rays will use an opener in the series finale when they hand the ball to Jalen Beeks, but he might not be the only pitcher in this matchup who has a short outing.
Dean Kremer gets the call for the O’s tonight, and despite the team’s success, the right-hander hasn’t been a big part of it. Kremer is pitching to an ugly 7.24 expected ERA and is giving up a .311 opponent expected batting average. Both of those numbers rank in the Bottom 6% of the league.
Now he must toe the rubber against one of the top teams in baseball. The Rays rank first in the MLB in OPS and wRC+ when facing right-handed pitching this season.
Kremer’s outs recorded prop is set at 17.5 for this matchup. That means he needs to get through six innings of work. He’s only done that twice in his seven starts this season. While he lasted six innings in his last start against the Atlanta Braves, he got a little lucky with Atlanta failing to cash in some good scoring opportunities.
This number feels too high in a matchup against a team as good as the Rays.
Dean Kremer Prop: Under 17.5 outs recorded (-115)
Prop bet #3: Soto leaps on Lopez
It’s a matchup of underachieving lineups when the San Diego Padres visit the Minnesota Twins on Wednesday night. That is a much more shocking statement in regard to the Padres when you consider the lineup they trot out there every day. But San Diego, and more specifically star outfielder Juan Soto, look like they have settled in at the dish.
Soto started the year hitting a putrid .178 with a .684 OPS over the first 26 games of the season. But the Padres’ slugger has broken out in a big way. Soto is now hitting .405 with a 1.190 OPS, including seven extra-base hits over his last 10 games.
Now, tonight appears to be a tough matchup against Twins starter Pablo Lopez. The right-hander has gotten off to a solid start in Minnesota pitching to a 3.31 expected ERA. But if there is someone on this Padres’ roster who knows what to expect when facing Lopez, it’s Soto.
These two have faced off plenty from their respective time playing in the National League East. Soto is 9-for-25 (.360) with five extra-base hits in his career vs. Lopez. That’s good for a .658 expected slugging percentage.
Lopez has been giving up more hits lately as well. The right-hander has surrendered 29 hits over his last four starts (23 innings pitched). That’s good for a .305 opponent batting average, and he has seen his ERA jump up to 5.87 over that stretch.
Soto has gone Over 1.5 total bases five times in his last nine games, which includes him coming off a scorching hot night at the dish where he went 4-for-4 with two doubles. I’m betting he stays hot and goes Over 1.5 total bases in this matchup against Lopez.
Juan Soto Prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+135)
