We could be in for a wild night in the Bronx as the Los Angeles Dodgers try to sweep away the New York Yankees.
And when I say wild, I mean wild. That’s because the Yanks are handing the ball to Luis Gil to save while the Dodgers counter with a bullpen game, and I’ve got some MLB player props to take advantage of that on October 29.
Chris Hatfield also has you covered with his Dodgers vs. Yankees predictions for Game 4.
Dodgers vs Yankees World Series Game 4 props
Freeman Over 0.5 RBI (+180 at bet365)
Gil Over 2.5 BB (+150 at bet365)- Soto Over 1.5 TB (+135 at bet365)
Picks made on 10-29 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Dodgers vs Yankees props
Prop bet #1: Freddie Freeman Over 0.5 RBI
You’d think we’d be losing some value on a guy who hit a home run in three consecutive World Series games and is the -1,800 favorite (DraftKings) to win MVP. But here we are, still getting a great price on Freddie Freeman to drive in another run tonight.
The Los Angeles Dodgers All-Star first baseman was off to a slow start this postseason, hitting just .219 with a .461 OPS, no home runs, and one RBI. That was in part because of a sprained ankle zapping him of some of his power. Well, that ankle looks fine now.
Freeman is 4-for-12 in the WS. All four hits are for extra bases, including three home runs, and he has seven RBI. It's helped that guys like Mookie Betts and Tommy Edman have been getting on base at a high rate ahead of Freeman, and I like that to continue tonight.
That’s because the New York Yankees will hand the ball to Luis Gil in a must-win Game 4. It was a roller-coaster rookie season for Gil, full of highs and lows, and an expected ERA in the 55th percentile tells that story.
Gil’s biggest problem has been walks, ranking in the seventh percentile in walk rate. That played out in Gil’s only postseason appearance so far, allowing two runs on three hits and three walks over four innings in Game 4 of the ALCS.
Left-handed hitters have also done more damage against Gil this season, getting to him for a .707 OPS, as opposed to the .584 mark righties have.
I don’t know if the Dodgers complete the sweep tonight, but at this price, I’m willing to back Freeman to stay hot and drive in another run.
Prop bet #2: Luis Gil Over 2.5 walks allowed
Considering how Gil has pitched this year, I’m telling Yankees fans right now, try to remember to breathe.
Gil has looked electric at times. He began the season pitching to a 2.03 ERA while limiting opponents to a .142 batting average and striking out 10.8 batters per nine innings over his first 14 starts. It was so good at one point he was the favorite to win the American League Rookie of the Year Award.
But he had several tough stretches the rest of the way, which is part of the reason why the 26-year-old right-hander has only taken the ball once for the Yankees in the postseason.
The one consistent for Gil has been his wild fastball. It’s wicked for sure, but he can also go long stretches where he just losses complete control of it. Hence the 12.1% walk rate.
Now, he’ll have to face a very tough Dodgers lineup with the second-highest walk rate against RHP this season. Gil has given out three or more free passes in half of his 30 starts (including the postseason).
Prop bet #3: Juan Soto Over 1.5 total bases
Giancarlo Stanton’s rise from the dead has been an incredible story this postseason. However, if there’s one N.Y. player I’d bet on who can still provide the spark needed to fuel the Bronx Bombers to their first win of the World Series, it’s Aaron Judge.
Just kidding. It’s Juan Soto.
The Yanks prized offseason acquisition has continued his MVP-level play into the postseason and now the World Series. Soto is 3-for-10 with three walks in the Fall Classic with a HR and RBI.
Soto has one of the best eyes in baseball, and that will be put to work tonight as Los Angeles tries to sweep the Yanks with a bullpen game.
The Dodgers bullpen may not be the most dominant group, but they’ve gotten the job done to this point. That said, they are definitely overworked and have been flirting with disaster in this series.
While L.A. relievers have only allowed four runs over 11 1/3 innings, they've given up 11 hits and seven walks. That’s a sub-par 1.59 WHIP, and if there’s anyone who can take advantage of that, it’s Soto.
Plus, when you look at Soto, who is already a World Series champion, you know he’s never going to give up. Give me him to top his total bases number in Game 4.
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