The Toronto Blue Jays are hoping to avoid being swept away by the Houston Astros, and if they want to do that, the bats need to get going.
Toronto has scored just one run in this series, and it’s probably no coincidence that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is hitless through the first two games.
However, my Blue Jays predictions and MLB picks break down why I like Vladdy to bust out of his little slump on Wednesday night.
Blue Jays predictions for April 23
- Best bet
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases
(+100 at BetVictor) - SGP pick
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases
Anthony Santander Over 0.5 RBI
Over 8.5
(+425 at BetVictor)
Today’s Blue Jays best bet: Vladdy's bounceback
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases (+100 at BetVictor)
You knew that scoring runs wasn’t going to be easy for the Toronto Blue Jays this season when you saw Andrés Giménez listed as the Opening Day cleanup hitter.
While it worked well for a few games, the reality is that the Blue Jays have a very top-heavy lineup, which could look even more lopsided when George Springer returns to planet Earth.
Toronto enters the finale against the Houston Astros having scored just one run in the previous two games and now ranks 24th in runs per game and 29th in home runs per game.
All this to say, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. needs to start whacking some dingers. It’s no coincidence that the Jays have struggled to score in this series, and Vladdy is 0-for-8 with three strikeouts. That said, I like the Blue Jays star first baseman to bounce back in tonight’s finale.
For starters, Guerrero’s advanced numbers are all sparkling. He’s in the 92nd percentile or better in expected batting average, average exit velocity, hard-hit percentage, and bat speed. He’s hitting the ball hard and often, all things that should eventually lead to more home runs.
Next, he gets a solid matchup. The Astros send 26-year-old prospect Ryan Gusto to the mound on Wednesday.
The rookie started the year as a long reliever for the Astros, but has been forced into the rotation due to injuries. This will be the right-hander's third consecutive start. While he’s only allowed five runs over those two starts, it’s been on 13 hits; it could have been much worse.
Gusto enters this game with a 4.02 expected ERA and a .255 opponent expected batting average. Both are below league average.
The problem for Gusto is that he's relying on his fastball more than 50% of the time. And when that isn’t working, he’s tossing a sweeper to right-handers for strikes. So, hitters know what to expect from Gusto at this point and are teeing him up. He ranks in the eighth percentile in average exit velocity and the 11th percentile in hard-hit r.ate
This plays perfectly into Vladdy’s game. I’m not banking on him going yard, but I like him to make some solid contact and go over 1.5 total bases tonight.
Today’s Blue Jays same-game parlay (SGP)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases
Anthony Santander Over 0.5 RBI
Over 8.5
With Vladimir Guerrero Jr. getting on base, the next logical step is for someone to drive him in, and the person who regularly hits behind Vladdy is starting to find his power stroke at the plate. Anthony Santander has been known for slow starts the past couple of seasons, so it was no surprise to see another one in 2025.
Despite also being 0-fer in this series, Santander has five extra-base hits, including two home runs, over his last nine games, and has driven in six runs during that period. He’s another guy who should get some good pitches to hit tonight against Ryan Gusto. So, let’s add Over 0.5 RBI for Santander to this same-game parlay.
And let’s round it out with the 8.5 on the full-game total. Yes, these are two teams that haven’t done a good job of scoring overall, but that could change tonight.
The Jays should match up well against Gusto. While the Astros look like they’re breaking out of their early-season funk, they get to go against Bowden Francis, who hasn’t captured the same magic he had in the second half of last season. Bowden owns an ugly 6.52 xERA and a .300 opponent xBA heading into tonight.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Live Blue Jays odds for today
How to watch the Blue Jays today
| Location | Daikin Park, Houston, TX |
| Date | Wednesday, April 23, 2025 |
| First pitch | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | Rogers Sportsnet |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher | Bowden Francis (2-2, 3.13 ERA) |
| Astros starting pitcher | Ryan Gusto (2-1, 3.18 ERA) |
Not intended for use in MA.
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