The New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians will wrap up a three-game series this afternoon.
The Yankees will be looking to avoid being swept for the first time this season. The Guardians will be seeking their sixth straight win and to fully exact some revenge for losing last year's ALCS series to New York. Today will be a difficult task, though.
My Yankees vs. Guardians predictions break it down here, as I bring you my MLB picks for Wednesday, April 23.
Yankees vs Guardians prediction
My Yankees vs Guardians best bet: Yankees F5 -0.5 (-110 at bet365)
I like the New York Yankees today, and I'm making them to win the first five innings my best bet.
I see more value in the F5 spread than in the whole game, and I'm going in that direction. Luis Ortiz takes the mound today for the Cleveland Guardians and fits the profile of the pitchers that the Yankees tend to attack well.
A continued profile that we've looked at when backing New York is a pitcher who throws a heavy amount of fastballs and doesn't create an overwhelming amount of strikeout stuff, and has a hard-hit problem. You can check all of the boxes with Ortiz.
He'll come into this game with a barrel rate and a hard-hit rate that sits in the Bottom 30% of the sport, and the fastball or cutter makes up over 60% of his pitching arsenal.
The strikeout stuff has been decent. It's been above average this year, but the caveat is that most of that strikeout stuff has relied on the heater. As we've heavily documented this year, this Yankees lineup is littered with strong fastball hitters. They'll take advantage of that today.
On the other side is Carlos Rodon. He's had a mixed season so far but has started to make some strides over his last two starts. His expected ERA, which is a full run lower than his actual one, suggests we should expect some more positive regression going forward.
More pressing in this matchup is what he's done already, though. Rodon has found success this season, inducing more and more ground balls. He'll enter this one with a rate in the Top 20% of baseball. Over the last month, the Guardians have hit them at the sixth-highest clip in the sport, with little expected statistics that say change will be coming anytime soon. Rodon is well-suited to be successful here because of that.
I like the Yankees to get the better of the Guardians early in this spot and lead after five innings. My projected price on the spread was -125, and I'd play it down to -120.
Yankees vs Guardians same-game parlay (SGP)
Yankees F5 -0.5
Aaron Judge 1+ home run
Austin Hedges 1+ hits
We played Aaron Judge to go deep last night, and he responded with 4 of 4 from the plate but no longball. We're back here again today.
The homerless drought now stands at six games, and you couldn't ask for a better matchup than the one he has this afternoon. The aforementioned barrel rate issues and fastball-heavy approach play a part here.
I finished things by taking a flier on Austin Hedges to get a hit. The catcher has been a rotational player in the Guardians lineup this season for various reasons and is expected to be back in it. I like his profile against Rodon, as the lefty is a ground-ball reliant thrower, and no Cleveland player hits fewer of them than Hedges.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Yankees vs Guardians odds
Yankees vs Guardians live odds
Yankees vs Guardians opening odds
- Moneyline: New York -130 | Cleveland +105
- Run line: New York -1.5 (+110) | Cleveland +1.5 (-140)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Yankees vs Guardians trend
The Yankees have covered the F5 run line in 15 of their last 24 games (+5.55 Units / 20% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Guardians.
How to watch Yankees vs Guardians and game info
| Location | Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date | Wednesday, 4-23-2025 |
| First pitch | 1:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | YES, CLEG |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Carlos Rodón (2-3, 4.34 ERA) |
| Guardians starting pitcher | Luis L. Ortiz (2-2, 5.48 ERA) |
Yankees vs Guardians latest injuries
Yankees vs Guardians weather
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