Happy (almost) weekend! What a great day to wrap up the week by hitting some props all across the baseball diamond. Unfortunately, there is just one lone day game today, but we have an excellent buffet of fun in the evening. We’re heavy on the pitchers today, with one coming up big for his team when they need a win, one that is starting to really hit his stride, and more.
Join us, and let’s try to cash some of these selections in our MLB player prop picks for Friday, May 5th.
MLB props for May 5
Picks made on 5/5/2023 at 11:45 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Nerves of Steele
Steele heads to the mound today with the Chicago Cubs searching for a win to snap a three-game losing streak. The Cubbies have been very unlucky, so I’m looking for some positive regression to come their way very soon. There’s a massive overlay between their actual win percentage vs. their expected win percentage (48% vs 65%). Based on their expected win percentage, they’re about the fourth-best team in baseball. Again, more wins should be coming their way.
With that in mind, I like Steele to do what it takes today to record a win. His matchup is one you want after you add in the situational aspect of things. I’d argue Steele is the best pitcher on the Cubs roster, but he’s undoubtedly the most well-rounded. There’s no apparent weakness there, and he ranks highly in inducing soft contact, which is favorable for him to extend games. Steele has posted the highest ground ball rate of his career so far. That isn’t good for the Marlins — no team in baseball has a higher ground ball rate than them.
What does that mean for this matchup? Well, Steele should be able to get plenty of easy outs. On the other end, I feel confident that the Cubs can chip in with a few runs against a pitcher with a litany of hard-hit issues.
Justin Steele Prop: record a win (+150 at DraftKings)
Yard Sale
I projected this at -130, and I like the handicap side of things too. Sale is hitting his stride. Two of his last three starts have been good, and he’s coming off his best of the season. That game was against the Cleveland Guardians, where he went six innings and surrendered just one earned run. Most notably, he struck out five batters, which is reasonably impressive given that Cleveland historically doesn’t strike out.
Tonight, Sale takes the mound against the Philadelphia Phillies, and it’s a nice matchup for him. His success is predicated on getting batters to chase with a rate this season that places him in the Top 12 percentile of baseball and, historically, a rate that’s even been higher.
Here’s what the Phillies have done at the plate this season: fourth-highest chase rate in baseball, above-average whiff rate, and ninth-highest swing rate in baseball. All of these metrics are conducive to Phildepehida getting struck out. Sale has averaged nine per game this season, and we get six innings out of him; you’d expect to go Over this number.
Chris Sale Prop: Over 6.5 strikeouts (-115)
Gang Greene
This was one of my biggest edges today with my projection against the available odds.
I priced this north of -200, so getting -110 is a considerable edge that I have to take. Greene will face off against the Chicago White Sox today. Those White Sox have been an intriguing team at the mound this season. That strikeout is slightly higher than average, but they’ve been whiffing more at the plate lately. Chicago’s strikeout rate on the season is around 24%; however, over its last three games, it’s eclipsed 28%. In addition to that, it sees a rise in whiffs when it hits the road. I’m simply following my projections edge here more than anything else.
Greene has a strikeout rate of 32% on the season. It’s in the MLB’s Top 10%, along with a whiff rate that it’s the Top 8%. The talk with Greene has always been his fastball, but the changeup has been his primary “put-out pitch.” The White Sox rank below average in changeup hitting this season.
Hunter Greene Prop: Over 6.5 strikeouts (-110)
