Spencer Strider and Sonny Gray have been two of the best pitchers in the majors this season, and with both taking to the mound today, we're focusing on them with our MLB player prop bets.
While we're backing Gray against one of the worst-hitting teams in the majors, we're fading Strider due to his issues in one specific area. Find out what that is with our best free MLB player prop picks for Saturday, May 6.
MLB props for May 6
Picks made on 5/6/2023 at 10 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Taking it in Stride
Spencer Strider has followed up on a sensational rookie season with even better play this year. The Braves righthander is the current NL Cy Young odds favorite and has gone 4-0 with a 2.57 ERA and an incredible 57 strikeouts in just 35 innings. Strider has overpowering velocity and plenty of movement on his pitches, but he can't always control that heat.
Strider's in the bottom 40th percentile of all pitchers in walk rate and he faces a Baltimore lineup today that ranks third in the majors in walks per game (4.06).
The Over/Under on Strider's walks today is set at 1.5, a number he has eclipsed in five of six starts. He has walked three batters in four of those outings.
Spencer Strider Prop: Over 1.5 walks (-118)
Sonny side up
Another pitcher who's looked elite this season is Minnesota's Sonny Gray. The veteran is a perfect 4-0 through six starts with an MLB-best 0.77 ERA and an OBA of .197.
While that sort of production isn't sustainable long term, his expected ERA of 2.93 and expected opponent batting average of .200 indicate that he hasn't just been benefitting from luck.
Today, Gray and the Twins are in Cleveland to face a Guardians side that's dead last in the majors with an OPS of .636. The Guardians are also 27th in scoring with 3.63 runs per game, and that number has dropped to just 1.8 runs/game over their last five contests.
The Over/Under on Gray's earned runs allowed is set at just 1.5 but with how well he's been throwing and how poorly the Guardians have been batting, I'm taking the Under.
Sonny Gray Prop: Under 1.5 earned runs (+110)
Food for Stott
Bryson Stott wasn't in the starting lineup for the Phillies yesterday and while he struck out in his only plate appearance he should get more chances today. That was a routine day of rest for Stott, who has picked up a single in just three of his last six games. However, the 25-year-old is still batting .301 and has impressed during his sophomore season beginning the year with a 17-game hitting streak.
Although the former first-rounder hit just .234 as a rookie last year he played much better down the stretch, batting .279 after the start of August. Stott doesn't have much power but he does a good job of making contact which has resulted in him ranking third in the majors with 32 singles.
Today, Stott and the Phillies host the Boston Red Sox who are raking at the dish but struggling on the mound. Boston is sending Corey Kluber to the hill and he has a woeful 6.44 ERA with a 1.40 WHIP through six starts.
Despite looking a bit flat this week, Stott has still singled in 24 of 32 games this year. Give me the Over 0.5 singles for Stott at close to even money.
Bryson Stott Prop: Over 0.5 singles (-105)
