Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Walker Keeps Rolling in the Desert

It’s time to kick off a new week of action on the diamond with some winners in the MLB player props market and with 11 games on the MLB odds board, there will be no shortage of options.

Today, I look at a pair of struggling starters in the White Sox’s Dylan Cease and the Cardinals' Miles Mikolas: which one is primed to bounce back, and which one is in for another tough night?

Then we head to Arizona where Diamondbacks first baseman Christian Walker will look to stay as hot as the desert when he and his teammates take on the Marlins.

Here are my best MLB player prop picks for Monday, May 8.

MLB props for May 8

• Cease Over 5.5 strikeouts
• Mikolas Over 5.5 hits allowed
• Walker Over 1.5 total bases

Picks made on 5/8/2023 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Best MLB bets today

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Prop bet #1: Cease fire

Despite winning five of their last seven games, not much has gone right for the Chicago White Sox this season. Even the performance from Dylan Cease hasn’t been immune to the White Sox’s poor start, but the Pale Hose’s ace will try to bounce back when he takes the ball against the Kansas City Royals tonight at Kauffman Stadium.

Cease hasn’t been terrible this season, but he hasn’t been great either, pitching to a 4.54 expected ERA... particularly over his last two starts, where he's surrendered 10 runs on 14 hits in nine innings of work. His curveball has been finding too much of the plate this season and has been getting crushed for a .477 expected slugging percentage.

A couple of things that are still working are his fastball and slider, allowing him to keep racking up strikeouts. Cease is recording 11 strikeouts per nine innings.

Luckily, tonight’s matchup against the Royals might be just what he needs to get back on track.

Kansas City ranks 22nd in batting average, 25th in OPS, and 27th in wRC+ when facing off against right-handed pitching this season. And Cease has always been a thorn in the side of the Royals. He's made eight starts vs. the Royals since 2021 and owns a 1.80 ERA while striking out 12.2 batters per nine in those starts. 

Cease’s strikeout total for this matchup is 5.5. He's struck out at least eight Royals in his last five matchups against them and recorded six or more Ks in four of his seven starts. With K.C. struggling against right-handers and ranking 18th in K-rate, Cease will have a great opportunity to go Over that number here tonight.

Dylan Cease Prop: Over 5.5 strikeouts (-125)

Prop bet #2: Batter up

Speaking of things not going right (I guess that’s today’s theme), let’s take a look at the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cards are just 11-24 this season heading into this week’s series against the rival Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field.

They open the series by handing the ball to Miles Mikolas and like many of his teammates, 2023 has been a rough ride for the Cardinals’ starter. 

Mikolas is a command pitcher who doesn’t have great swing-and-miss stuff, but his command hasn’t been great either, meaning that he's finding way too much of the plate so far this season and opponents have been hammering him.

Through seven starts this season, the right-hander is allowing opponents to hit for a .314 expected batting average. That ranks in the Bottom 4% of MLB. As a result, his expected ERA of 6.11 is even higher than his 5.79 ERA.

Things won’t get any easier tonight against the Cubs. Chicago has done an excellent job when facing right-handed pitching this season, ranking fifth in batting average, seventh in OPS, and eighth in wRC+ when digging in vs. righties.

Mikolas’ hits allowed prop is sitting at 5.5. He is giving up an average of 7.6 hits per start and has given up at least six hits in five of his seven starts.

The right-hander is also averaging just over 5 1/3 innings per start this season, partly because the Cardinals’ bullpen hasn’t provided much relief. That should give the Cubbies plenty of time to rack up the hits against Mikolas.

Miles Mikolas Prop: Over 5.5 hits allowed (-135)

Prop bet #3: Can't stop Christian

The Arizona Diamondbacks have been one of the best stories through the early start of the season. Most expected this team to have solid starting pitching thanks in part to ace Zac Gallen, but it’s the lineup that has been the biggest surprise.

The team ranks third in batting average, sixth in OPS, and sixth in scoring. They're also extremely patient at the dish, owning MLB’s third-lowest strikeout rate. And in the middle of that lineup is first baseman Christian Walker.

The 32-year-old slugger is hitting .281 with a .851 OPS this season. Walker ranks in the 75th percentile or better in expected batting average, expected slugging percentage, and strikeout rate. He’s also raking at the moment. Walker is 10-for-his-last-23 (.435) with a 1.458 OPS. That includes four dingers and five extra-base hits and I really like his chances of staying hot tonight.

That’s because he’ll dig in against Miami Marlins’ southpaw Braxton Garrett. The 25-year-old has been getting hit hard this season and is surrendering a .329 expected batting average with a .544 expected slugging percentage to opponents, both of which rank in the Bottom 8% of the league. Garrett's 18.2% strikeout rate also sits in the 24th percentile.

With Walker locked in at the plate and also owing a .982 OPS when facing left-handed pitching, I really like the plus money for him to go Over 1.5 total bases for the seventh time in his last nine games.

Christian Walker Prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+110)

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